Internally there is increasing competition between various factions.
Batkivshina (Yulia, Turchinov, Yatsenuk) is positioning itself slowly to dominate the polity.
Udar (Klitchko) was more or less created in my mind to appease South-East and it seems utterly failed in this regard.
Party of Regions still exists in some semblance but there are no political slogans of any kind to provide distribution of power towards that region at all. Not even Russian as second official promotion.
Svoboda is slowly being thrown under the bus both by media and Batkivchina/Udar it is excluded from any negotiations and vectors of power. If you look at it from a certain angle "Right Sector" becoming a party is going to split the nationalist vote and assure that Svoboda is slowly excluded from marginal competition first on presidential and then most likely parliament elections.
On the political front there are two necessary functions, money flows which are non-existant and will most likely end in default sooner rather than later. Law and order is more or less collapsing as cops are 'disciplined' or fired for intervening in 'Right Sector' enforcement of political will.
The undercurrent of regional struggle is becoming more and more active. After Odessa had a 30k meeting the organizer was arrested and sent to kiev same as Gubarev. The problem with this is that Odessa unlike Lugansk/Donetsk/Kharkov is very well organized and does not really have a mass of oligarchic force that could be applied. It has some but potential is more evenly distributed.
Anyway zoom out a bit and consider certain trends.
Money flows collapsing
Political will to reform or strengthen government is non existent other than replacing heads of regions with others favorable to you. It does not really change the underlying structure or create a feedback loop of any kind just switches power from party to party.
Rada has not passed any law to improve the life of people. Only things that have been passed are political externalities in respect to EU, Crimea, visa ban, and similar aspects. Nothing internal other than the national guard (which the Right Sector said it won't join mind you) is happening. Everything is rather cosmetic and non-institutional in nature. No reform of land ownership or rights of any kind nothing. Just blatant waiting for things to come down.
In about two months you have harvest time and it coincides with the financial strain being at the apex point with June being the most painful payment month. Seems likely that harvest will be botched both from the resources point of view and also from distribution/export point of view. Until that time pensions and wages will probably be semi-frozen and unpaid in most areas.
Theoretically there could be federalization into three constituencies below.
My guess this won't happen but it could under certain scenarios.
Federalization would save cohesiveness for debt-reorganization. So from the point of view of IMF or other debt holders it would be optimal to having Ukraine completely break apart and the debt going for pennies on the dollar. Language rights and tax flows accommodating federalization could happen but my guess they will be partial and revocable since anyone in federal center will always want more to be under their control. Theoretically it would be possible to devolve power but this would require a new constitution and real reform something similar to Canada is possible with half/half tax flow division or there about and non-revocable power structure.
There are several problems with Federalization and they revolve around political distribution. There is a vacuum in South-East and even in Center as well. A lot of dissillusionment on the grass roots level with what has been done and what is being done. It is possible that we could see certain new parties fill that gap.
I could see Poroshenko have a new party that fills some of that gap.
I could also see Medvedchuk and his vybor party emerge. The reason is that he is mentioning things specifically about which people care devolution of local power, and Russian as second language. Ergo right now his party is the only one representing South-East since Party of Regions is essentially is in frozen liquidation.
All of this takes time, which Ukraine simply does not have. Imagine trains running out of diesel or electricity being cut off for non-payment and distribution of food being impossible due to fuel shortages. Complete dis-functionality and law and order break down and financial system being inaccessible for payments of pensions or any other aspects. That is where it is going.
The other factor that is not noticed is the rank and file nationalists that were in power and held positions are not happy. Most of them are from NSNU and other Orange parties from Yushenko and some from Batkivchina. They see this whole collapse and realize that nothing is being done to stem it or reform of any meaningful kind. In some sense they could be approached to negotiate for Federalization because they understand the situation and want some sort of meaningful change.
Several catalysts that could occur. If we have just one Oblast blocking transit rail/road and demanding some sort of federalization either gov't caves or has to crack down. If it does not cave the spiraling out of control could force a chain reaction.
The other catalyst is outright destabilization of law and order in Kiev in the sphere of things on the ground but most likely in the government sector with everyone trying to grab as much power as they could handle. In this scenario you have center which is completely immobilized by their power struggle internally. With regions slowly realizing they could do as they wish if they topple the 'appointed governors' and other central controllers. I think this is very likely especially as disillusionment spreads to political elite.
Batkivshina (Yulia, Turchinov, Yatsenuk) is positioning itself slowly to dominate the polity.
Udar (Klitchko) was more or less created in my mind to appease South-East and it seems utterly failed in this regard.
Party of Regions still exists in some semblance but there are no political slogans of any kind to provide distribution of power towards that region at all. Not even Russian as second official promotion.
Svoboda is slowly being thrown under the bus both by media and Batkivchina/Udar it is excluded from any negotiations and vectors of power. If you look at it from a certain angle "Right Sector" becoming a party is going to split the nationalist vote and assure that Svoboda is slowly excluded from marginal competition first on presidential and then most likely parliament elections.
On the political front there are two necessary functions, money flows which are non-existant and will most likely end in default sooner rather than later. Law and order is more or less collapsing as cops are 'disciplined' or fired for intervening in 'Right Sector' enforcement of political will.
The undercurrent of regional struggle is becoming more and more active. After Odessa had a 30k meeting the organizer was arrested and sent to kiev same as Gubarev. The problem with this is that Odessa unlike Lugansk/Donetsk/Kharkov is very well organized and does not really have a mass of oligarchic force that could be applied. It has some but potential is more evenly distributed.
Anyway zoom out a bit and consider certain trends.
Money flows collapsing
Political will to reform or strengthen government is non existent other than replacing heads of regions with others favorable to you. It does not really change the underlying structure or create a feedback loop of any kind just switches power from party to party.
Rada has not passed any law to improve the life of people. Only things that have been passed are political externalities in respect to EU, Crimea, visa ban, and similar aspects. Nothing internal other than the national guard (which the Right Sector said it won't join mind you) is happening. Everything is rather cosmetic and non-institutional in nature. No reform of land ownership or rights of any kind nothing. Just blatant waiting for things to come down.
In about two months you have harvest time and it coincides with the financial strain being at the apex point with June being the most painful payment month. Seems likely that harvest will be botched both from the resources point of view and also from distribution/export point of view. Until that time pensions and wages will probably be semi-frozen and unpaid in most areas.
Theoretically there could be federalization into three constituencies below.
My guess this won't happen but it could under certain scenarios.
Federalization would save cohesiveness for debt-reorganization. So from the point of view of IMF or other debt holders it would be optimal to having Ukraine completely break apart and the debt going for pennies on the dollar. Language rights and tax flows accommodating federalization could happen but my guess they will be partial and revocable since anyone in federal center will always want more to be under their control. Theoretically it would be possible to devolve power but this would require a new constitution and real reform something similar to Canada is possible with half/half tax flow division or there about and non-revocable power structure.
There are several problems with Federalization and they revolve around political distribution. There is a vacuum in South-East and even in Center as well. A lot of dissillusionment on the grass roots level with what has been done and what is being done. It is possible that we could see certain new parties fill that gap.
I could see Poroshenko have a new party that fills some of that gap.
I could also see Medvedchuk and his vybor party emerge. The reason is that he is mentioning things specifically about which people care devolution of local power, and Russian as second language. Ergo right now his party is the only one representing South-East since Party of Regions is essentially is in frozen liquidation.
All of this takes time, which Ukraine simply does not have. Imagine trains running out of diesel or electricity being cut off for non-payment and distribution of food being impossible due to fuel shortages. Complete dis-functionality and law and order break down and financial system being inaccessible for payments of pensions or any other aspects. That is where it is going.
The other factor that is not noticed is the rank and file nationalists that were in power and held positions are not happy. Most of them are from NSNU and other Orange parties from Yushenko and some from Batkivchina. They see this whole collapse and realize that nothing is being done to stem it or reform of any meaningful kind. In some sense they could be approached to negotiate for Federalization because they understand the situation and want some sort of meaningful change.
Several catalysts that could occur. If we have just one Oblast blocking transit rail/road and demanding some sort of federalization either gov't caves or has to crack down. If it does not cave the spiraling out of control could force a chain reaction.
The other catalyst is outright destabilization of law and order in Kiev in the sphere of things on the ground but most likely in the government sector with everyone trying to grab as much power as they could handle. In this scenario you have center which is completely immobilized by their power struggle internally. With regions slowly realizing they could do as they wish if they topple the 'appointed governors' and other central controllers. I think this is very likely especially as disillusionment spreads to political elite.
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