More than two hours but they haven't found that piece again. Malaysia is sending 5 more ships to the location.
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Originally posted by Killer Whale View PostHere are some finer details on one of the stolen passports.
On the terrorist side, no group has come forward claiming credit for it. It is highly unlikely the Uyghur (considered a regional militant group, not a transnational terrorist group such as al Qaeda) have the capabilities from planning to the execution phase of the terrorist attack cycle to launch international operations of this calibre.
Any terrorist cell would need to identify targets, do detailed surveillance of potential targets, do further surveillance of the chosen target, recruit personnel, plan operations, acquire or build any weapons, place personnel into key positions (which could take years), then execute it without anything going wrong or being detected. There are a lot of detection points of vulnerability, especially given tightened aviation security since 9/11. Moreover when you consider the limited capabilities of Uyghur modus opperanti in the past (for example exploiting soft targets as seen at Kunming Train Station recently, or low level bombings) it seems highly unlikely they could successfully perform an international commercial aviation hijacking outside of China at all.
No terrorist group is known to be able to conduct sophisticated attacks.... until they conduct their first sophisticated attack. The attackers dont even have to be Uighur, thry just have to adppt their cause.
This week is also the NPC.
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Originally posted by citanon View PostEast Turkestan Islamic Movement - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
No terrorist group is known to be able to conduct sophisticated attacks.... until they conduct their first sophisticated attack. The attackers dont even have to be Uighur, thry just have to adppt their cause.
This week is also the NPC.
That's like the PLA using a zero day exploit of the DoD IT system to screw around with DoD civilian pay checks.
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Originally posted by TopHatter View PostLot of assets in the area at least. If it's there to be found, they'll get it.sigpic
Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C
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Originally posted by Skywatcher View PostBut if say, AQAP can get inside Kuala Lumpur, then why use it to attack a KL-Beijing flight, as opposed to one going to Europe, Australia or the U.S.?
That's like the PLA using a zero day exploit of the DoD IT system to screw around with DoD civilian pay checks.
National People's Congress - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Originally posted by Killer Whale View PostHere are some finer details on one of the stolen passports.
On the terrorist side, no group has come forward claiming credit for it. It is highly unlikely the Uyghur (considered a regional militant group, not a transnational terrorist group such as al Qaeda) have the capabilities from planning to the execution phase of the terrorist attack cycle to launch international operations of this calibre.
Any terrorist cell would need to identify targets, do detailed surveillance of potential targets, do further surveillance of the chosen target, recruit personnel, plan operations, acquire or build any weapons, place personnel into key positions (which could take years), then execute it without anything going wrong or being detected. There are a lot of detection points of vulnerability, especially given tightened aviation security since 9/11. Moreover when you consider the limited capabilities of Uyghur modus opperanti in the past (for example exploiting soft targets as seen at Kunming Train Station recently, or low level bombings) it seems highly unlikely they could successfully perform an international commercial aviation hijacking outside of China at all.
Hell, I once flew into the domestic terminal, at NAIA, and the plane was held on the tarmac for lack of a open dock. We were told buses would come by to get us and they did. Only problem it was to be one small bus at a time for a full plane sitting in the heat. I said the hell with that and walked off the plane onto the tarmac. I walked past other planes finding my way to a terminal door. I found the door and no one asked a thing.
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Originally posted by citanon View PostI still don't think this makes sense. They were going to Beijing, not known as a haven for refugees.
The two tickets booked with China Southern Airlines both start in Kuala Lumpur, fly to Beijing, and then onward to Amsterdam. The Italian passport's ticket continues to Copenhagen, the Austrian's to Frankfurt.
Originally posted by tbm3fan View PostTightened security? Interpol has a free system to use where the airlines can access information about stolen passports. Outside of the United States most countries elect not to use it despite the obvious benefits such as here.
As far a airports there are still holes in Asian airports. Try NAIA even today.
On a related note, even airports in the middle of nowhere in Ethiopia scanned everything twice. Once when you enter the airport, once when you pass into the departure lounge. Actually got pulled up when the metal detector picked up the metal studs on my shorts!!!sigpic
Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C
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Originally posted by Bigfella View PostIt turns out they were going to Western Europe, so the refugee thesis looks a bit stronger.
!
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/to...40310?irpc=932
Note people are already making comparisons to the the Indian airlines bombing and Lockerbie. Interpol is also looking into additional suspicious passports.
The most likely scenario I can see is that someone got a large bomb into his checked luggage, put it on a timer then got on the plane with it.Last edited by citanon; 10 Mar 14,, 07:55.
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Originally posted by citanon View PostNot necessarily. It actually also makes perfect sense for terrorists. In either case it would allow them to avoid Chinese visa authorities. Nor would they have to get EU visas since they already have an EU passport. It's actually pretty clever but doesn't rule out either possibility.
Note people are already making comparisons to the the Indian airlines bombing and Lockerbie. Interpol is also looking into additional suspicious passports.
Apparently the US is saying it hasn't heard any chatter on this from any known terrorist networks. Now, they may be telling fibs to cover surveillance or other intel ops going on, but in that case it would make more sense to do a 'we don't divulge...' routine.
The most likely scenario I can see is that someone got a large bomb into his checked luggage, put it on a timer then got on the plane with it.sigpic
Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C
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Originally posted by Bigfella View PostNo, but it does make one look stronger than it did.
Most likely? Really? it is a possibility, but only one. In most cases the most obvious answer is the correct one - catastrophic fuck up by something or someone. Planes do occasionally just drop out of the sky. More frequent than terrorist bombings & therefore more likely.
1. Air India Flight 182 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
2. Pan Am Flight 103 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
3. TWA Flight 800 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
4. Air France Flight 447 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Air France crash occurred in bad weather. The TWA 800 accident's lessons were dissected in minute detail and incorporated into modern airliner engineering. The other two were terrorist bombings.
MH370 happened in perfectly clear weather as the National People's Congress was taking place in Beijing, on a plane headed for Beijing, the week after a major terrorist attack called China's 9-11.
So yeah, likely. Not 100%, but likely.
These last few days are probably giving sleepless nights to every anti-terrorism official around the region and around the world. An airliner, very possibly just got blown to smithereens at 31000 ft, and no one knows how. No one knows whom. Gives a new dimension of uncertainty now to everything in air transport safety.
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Strange in every sense , no SOS , no radar sig so that rules out hi,jack ,no signal from the black box recorder blown to shreds is the only real likely scenario , , however , no flotsam whatsoever seen , except what was thought to be a life raft which has now been ruled out ! 2 oil slicks seen ? that could be down to pumping of not so legal bilge by ships ( could be ) ? if from the plane would surely indicate it came down in one piece ?? strange indeed , its all speculation guessology from us mere mortals , very strange indeed. Hats off to the international effort of search , which is extending and hopefully will find something and clear up the mysteryLast edited by tankie; 10 Mar 14,, 10:45.
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Originally posted by citanon View PostHow so? Unless you thought the refugee theory was completely implausible before.
The scenario of a modern airliner outright disappearing without any chance for an SOS is so remote that as far as I know there are only four such incidents in modern history:
1. Air India Flight 182 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
2. Pan Am Flight 103 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
3. TWA Flight 800 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
4. Air France Flight 447 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Air France crash occurred in bad weather. The TWA 800 accident's lessons were dissected in minute detail and incorporated into modern airliner engineering. The other two were terrorist bombings.
MH370 happened in perfectly clear weather as the National People's Congress was taking place in Beijing, on a plane headed for Beijing, the week after a major terrorist attack called China's 9-11.
So yeah, likely. Not 100%, but likely.
We won't know until the wreckage is found, so 'I don't know' is the appropriate response at this point.
These last few days are probably giving sleepless nights to every anti-terrorism official around the region and around the world. An airliner, very possibly just got blown to smithereens at 31000 ft, and no one knows how. No one knows whom. Gives a new dimension of uncertainty now to everything in air transport safety.sigpic
Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C
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Originally posted by Bigfella View PostStop trolling. You've been one of the one throwing up reasons why this is unlikely. Thus far they have all been dealt with.
1. We have no idea if they were actually going to Europe.
2. It did not make it anymore likely for them to be refugees since terrorists could benefit from the method to get on a plane to Beijing. without getting proper visas.
3. They bought the tickets at the same time and same place and yet went to two different destinations. Why? If they were going their separate ways why travel together and risk increasing the chances of discovery?
None of the above supports the refugee theory. It fails to discount it, but it also fails to make it more plausible.
They need to identify these individuals and then piece together their family backgrounds. Then we will know more.
Here's another thing to consider: if they were migrants why hasn't the families come forward?
I would say that these questions make criminal activity or terrorism more likely than simple immigration.
I saw an interview tonight with Mary Schiavo, who knows marginally more about air crashes & airliners than either of us. When asked to speculate on the most likely explanation she said a stall, which has happened several times. She said if there was evidence of an explosion on the wreckage a terrorist bomb was most likely.
We won't know until the wreckage is found, so 'I don't know' is the appropriate response at this point.
Strange days indeed.
Another thing that's probably on the minds of Chinese officials: maybe there has not been a claim of responsibility because the planned attacks are not yet completed. That's a remote, but truly troubling possibility.
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trolling , how dare you comment on b/f's forum citanon , him being the master and font of knowledge of all he surveys ,he should soon be elevated to rochen owner n super mod now minnie is away ,,,,,,, damned inconsiderate of you ol chap ,
right back on topic , the oil slicks have been shown via lab not to be from the aircraft ??? its oil used by ships , one of my opinions is correct ?
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