"Mass" NK officals defect.

[lemontree]

Most of us would do the same if our boss was pissed drunk and gave execution orders.

[Inst]

You're assuming that KJU was secure enough to get rid of Jang slowly. It could have been possibly the case that KJU was worried that reformist elements would rally behind Jang and start a fight.

I think you're assuming that North Korea is China, where the ruling elites are secure enough and have enough rules of the road that they can detain then arrest Bo Xilai without causing civil war. And even in China, the leftists made a heavy outcry that their hero was arrested. If you apply it to North Korea, a country which is a lot more unstable, going after Jang with the soft route could definitely have created issues. I've mentioned before the possibility of Jang being rallied behind by reformists, but there's also the fact that Jang is China-backed and if Jang were merely detained, China could use its influence to try to start a couple. Quickly arresting and executing Jang makes the death of his faction a fait accompli and prevents any other elements from trying to make an issue out of it.

[citanon]

You're assuming that KJU was secure enough to get rid of Jang slowly. It could have been possibly the case that KJU was worried that reformist elements would rally behind Jang and start a fight.

There was no fight because the "reformists" had no guns. If they did we'd be seeing military people being purged this round. We didn't and that was the first clue.

It's possible that China had bearing on this but how much influence does China really have? The Kims have worked very hard to make sure the only goto guy China has in Pyongyang is named Kim. The other possible go to guys have been liquidated.

Did China necessitate expediting Jang's removal? Maybe, but I doubt it. The only thing that would make me thing otherwise is the Colonel's point about the Chinese group army. On the other hand I don't know how much we should read into it. China knew something was up in Nov when the first two aides got killed. Say that they did get forewarning. What does their presence on the border mean? Is it to threaten KJU? Or is it to contain trouble if something really goes wrong?

[Dreadnought]

Strike quickly they did, with anti-aircraft guns apparently.

Shocking new details have been revealed about the execution of Jang Song-thaek, Kim Jong Un's uncle.

The New York Times reports that the Jang's death was the end result of a brutal gun battle between Jang supporters and those of the regime over who controlled key land.

As the Times tells it, Kim's forces were ordered to take back control over important fishing grounds that Jang had previously seized, but Jang wouldn't give it up without a fight. The battle ended in the death of many of Kim's soldiers. Kim was furious and ordered that Jang's top aides be executed.

According to the Times, the two men were killed with antiaircraft machine guns rather than regular guns or rifles.

Yomiuri Shimbun, a Japanese newspaper, reported that Kim was “very drunk” when he ordered the death of Jang's men.

Earlier this month, Jang was executed for allegedly committing treason. Jang's death came as a shock to many who believed he was a close confidant to Kim. Jang was accused of corruption and substance abuse, among other crimes that could not be verified by Western media.

For more on the North Korea, head over to the New York Times.

Jang Song-thaek's Aides Executed With Antiaircraft Machine Guns: Report

[Officer of Engineers]

The original NYT article

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/24/wo...anted=all&_r=0

What did I say about a Civil War?

[astralis]

not much of a civil war though-- 150 soldiers were beaten back with 2 dead. then they try again with an unknown # of bigger forces, take over and proceed to execute Jang, his top aides, plus an unknown number of small fish.

[tantalus]

Roughly, what is the expected assessment/range for damage to the global economy upon the inevitable collapse of North Korea?

The NYT article allows the interpretation that there is not a major power struggle and the gun battle was not the end result of intense strain on north korea's inner circle.

It is amazing that the country has held together if the picture of severe, prolonged famine is as accurate as reported.

[Officer of Engineers]

Roughly, what is the expected assessment/range for damage to the global economy upon the inevitable collapse of North Korea?

24 million homeless beggars in the streets of northern China and South Korea.

[Officer of Engineers]

not much of a civil war though-- 150 soldiers were beaten back with 2 dead. then they try again with an unknown # of bigger forces, take over and proceed to execute Jang, his top aides, plus an unknown number of small fish.

The point is that there are people in North Korea who is not afraid of KJU and are willing to trade shots. They are already vying for control and Jang cannot be the only one with his own personal army.

[S2]

Do others view KJU sufficiently weak to openly claim fiefdoms? Who would openly challenge the regime except those believing themselves indispensible and deserving of reward? That appears the case here. If true, the final currency garnered from Kim Il Sung's hard-earned cult of personality has been spent.

This numbskull shall be shark bait in fairly short order.

[astralis]

speaking of sharkbait, reports now indicate that jang himself was executed by being locked in a cage with 150 hungry dogs.

as for KJU going under...i have my doubts. if assad can hang on, there's no reason why KJU cannot.

[Officer of Engineers]

Assad got Iran and Russia. Kim got the Kims.

[Mithridates]

Assad got Iran and Russia. Kim got the Kims.

Kim has China, whose economy is 3x the size of Russia's and Iran's combined. Assad's opponents are the country's 60% majority Sunni Muslims being bankrolled by the gulf emirates to the tune of perhaps billions vs Assad's 10% minority Alawites (although the Druze, Christians and Kurds are said to have lined up, en bloc, against the Sunni guerrillas). In contrast, the NK opposition pretty much has to be self-funding. Short of China ending aid to NK, it's not clear that Kim's potential internal challengers are strong enough to knock him off his perch.

[Officer of Engineers]

Kim has China,

China got China. The Chinese thwarfed KJU's assassination of his brother twice that we know of. Allowed Jang to move $100mil to Kim Jung Nam and let KJU know that KJN is under Chinese protection.

Last but not least, the two best Chinese armies are on the Korean border.

[Mithridates]

China got China. The Chinese thwarfed KJU's assassination of his brother twice that we know of. Allowed Jang to move $100mil to Kim Jung Nam and let KJU know that KJN is under Chinese protection.

Last but not least, the two best Chinese armies are on the Korean border.

There's no question that China can invade and replace Kim, just as Turkey could invade Syria and replace Assad. The question is whether internal challengers could take him out, short of a cutoff of Chinese aid. The additional complication is that if China invaded, would the ROK's take offense and move north? Would Kim Jong-un declare his solidarity with his fellow Koreans from the south to resist the Chinese interlopers?