WaPo: China’s carrier-killer missile

[gf0012-aust]

what about the sub that surfaced closed to the kitty hawk carrier group undetected? Thats gotta raise some concerns.

CREF my previous and your previous

I'm stating that its not a given

Surfacing near the Kitty Hawk in peacetime - and when the USN is not even at a cold war footing is not remotely the same as stalking in a hot environment - ie can't be compared to a benign environment

[gf0012-aust]

Sinking a boat doesn't require experience. It requires putting holes into it such that it loses its buoyancy. The rest is academic. down she goes.

excuse me? of course it requires experience, thats why navies train until its a habit - if you aren't exercising and wargaming then you are practicing purely at an academic level and thats next to useless. The bottom line is that china has not until very recent times been practicing at fleet management, has never managed a multinational task force (where planning is tested to the max), has never conducted a SINKEX, has never conducted a HULKEX - so she's relying on all those anti-shipping weapons working as advertised. Land based tests on the DF family are not the same as transoceanic engagement where the target is aware, alert and actively committed to avoiding red threats.

in addition, eg a Mk48ADCAP BL7 type weapon is going to give you a far higher guarantee of a successful strike than any land based or airlaunched weapons set. Even if it doesn't sink it, its got more potential to mobility kill the skimmer.

I also don't think they have zero idea, cause to send a missile with a large warhead is not a novel idea. its quite a good idea actually. In fact I would say its the only idea.
finding a large ship that doesn't employ stealth like a zamwalt is fairly easy. Its going to cause a large blip on the radar. Its going to be easily tracked by satellite.

1) Untrue, its not the only idea by far - it's their own attempt to find a silver bullet solution, but its a one trick pony. a DF21 is a one trick pony, if she misses she's blown her chance. A sub OTOH will tie up resources and a sub that has a brace of large torpedoes will cause some significant dislocation as all the other assets are then forced to protect each other and the major capital assets in the middle. Subs are game changers - one shot missiles are not.

2) they're not easily tracked by satellite - especially china - she dcoesn't have the requisite number of satellites up to have persistent sat overwatch and redundancy. To all intents and purposes china is a significant regional power, she has no capacity to be a literal blue water power as she has NONE of the required force disposition to qualify for it.

[winton]

excuse me? of course it requires experience, thats why navies train until its a habit - if you aren't exercising and wargaming then you are practicing purely at an academic level and thats next to useless.

On a human level, when you war game, you are practicing how to push the fire button. On a systems level, the product works or doesn't work. You make adjustments. I dont see how more experience in pushing a button is going to improve the chances of a missile hitting its target. The product gets tested and if it works, it works. Its independant of the exercise.

The bottom line is that china has not until very recent times been practicing at fleet managment, has never managaed a multinational task force (where planning is tested to the max), has never conducted a SINKEX, has never conducted a HULKEX - so she's relying on all those anti-shipping weapons working as advertised. Land based tests on the DF family are not the same as transoceanic engagement where the target is aware, alert and actively committed to avoiding red threats.

If the DF21 works as advertised then all those exercises are for naught. If it works as advertised, then its target has been acquired and its off, homing in on its target. Of course the carrier battle group is going to run through its training, but it hasn't trained for DF21. nor does it have the defenses against a DF21.

I'm sure the chinese have run test and countermeasures against the DF21.

in addition, eg a Mk48ADCAP BL7 type weapon is going to give you a far higher guarantee of a successful strike than any land based or airlaunched weapons set. Even if it doesn't sink it, its got more potential to mobility kill the skimmer.

but its kinda academic if a chinese missile takes the ship out.

1) Untrue, its not the only idea by far - it's their own attempt to find a silver bullet solution, but its a one trick pony. a DF21 is a one trick pony, if she misses she's blown her chance. A sub OTOH will tie up resources and a sub that has a brace of large torpedoes will cause some significant dislocation as all the other assets are then forced to protect each other and the major capital assets in the middle. Subs are game changers - one shot missiles are not.

The DF21 more or less keeps all surface ships at a distance. who is going to risk it against this missile even if its a one trick pony?

2) they're not easily tracked by satellite - especially china - she dcoesn't have the requisite number of satellites up to have persistent sat overwatch and redundancy. To all intents and purposes china is a significant regional power, she has no capacity to be a literal blue water power as she has NONE of the required force disposition to qualify for it.

I think she has enough sats to keep watch over her area of interest which is within the first island chain. But we won't know that for sure.

[gf0012-aust]

It's hard to take you seriously when you post responses like that. You're not demonstrating any appreciation or understanding of how navies actually fight and the constraints involved

It's not wargaming on the internet, we're not talking about some foray into a Tom Clancy movie.

The real world is very very different

I'm done here.

[winton]

It's hard to take you seriously when you post responses like that. You're not demonstrating any appreciation or understanding of how navies actually fight and the constraints involved

It's not wargaming on the internet, we're not talking about some foray into a Tom Clancy movie.

The real world is very very different

I'm done here.

well, I'm not a navy guy, so perhaps I don't have that navy appreciation, but using another analogy, if my forward controller sends me target information, I input it into my fire control computer and send a few shells over to where that platoon is, is the training that platoon has done, going to affect the results?

What training has a fleet done that will affect the results of a missile that has acquired its target?

It really is up to how good the chinese sensors are.

[Doktor]

winton,

To translate what gf0012 said: take time, read more, talk less. More of the things you want to say are already said and debated to scrutiny.

While you do that you will notice you have two of the yard dogs after you. That's got to be some record recently ;)

[winton]

winton,

To translate what gf0012 said: take time, read more, talk less. More of the things you want to say are already said and debated to scrutiny.

While you do that you will notice you have two of the yard dogs after you. That's got to be some record recently ;)

Sorry, I haven't had a chance to read through the entire thread. But I'm really putting the questions out there. Not trying to step on anyones toes.

[Doktor]

Since you are new, I will try to respond to your reply, to show you how far you got.
Remember, I am a civvie coming from a landlocked country.

On a human level, when you war game, you are practicing how to push the fire button. On a systems level, the product works or doesn't work. You make adjustments. I dont see how more experience in pushing a button is going to improve the chances of a missile hitting its target. The product gets tested and if it works, it works. Its independant of the exercise.

So, they never malfunction? Good to know.

If the DF21 works as advertised then all those exercises are for naught. If it works as advertised, then its target has been acquired and its off, homing in on its target. Of course the carrier battle group is going to run through its training, but it hasn't trained for DF21. nor does it have the defenses against a DF21.

There is nothing to train against. See bellow.

I'm sure the chinese have run test and countermeasures against the DF21.

Check again. Chinese never tested it. Out of fear.

but its kinda academic if a chinese missile takes the ship out.

The only academic thing here is assumption the Chinese can launch the missile and hit the US CVN.
First you need that missile, then you need all set of systems to find the carrier, target it and make sure your missile reaches it. Something PLAN doesn't have. None of the above is in Chinese possession, yet.

The DF21 more or less keeps all surface ships at a distance. who is going to risk it against this missile even if its a one trick pony?

See above. Even if the Chinese have that missile, they are the ones who should be out of reach, not the other way around.

I think she has enough sats to keep watch over her area of interest which is within the first island chain. But we won't know that for sure.

Nope they don't have them, and even those they have will go off the very second the conflict starts.

[Captain Worley]

winton,

To translate what gf0012 said: take time, read more, talk less. More of the things you want to say are already said and debated to scrutiny.

Doktor gives good advice.

I mainly lurk, and I've learned quite a bit.

[Officer of Engineers]

Sorry, I haven't had a chance to read through the entire thread. But I'm really putting the questions out there. Not trying to step on anyones toes.

You're questioning nothing but spouting completely idiotic comic book answers that shows that you don't even have done first year university physics. In the meantime, you have people who worked in this field and who holds field grade commissions telling you what the real world is.

I strongly suggest you stop spouting comic book nonsence since I have an extremely low tolerance for stupidity.

[Dreadnought]

Sinking a boat doesn't require experience. It requires putting holes into it such that it loses its buoyancy. The rest is academic. down she goes.

I also don't think they have zero idea, cause to send a missile with a large warhead is not a novel idea. its quite a good idea actually. In fact I would say its the only idea.

finding a large ship that doesn't employ stealth like a zamwalt is fairly easy. Its going to cause a large blip on the radar. Its going to be easily tracked by satelite.

It most certainly does especially if that ship doesnt sink and is only damaged. The reprisal shortly afterwards will make you wish you had.

Directing a warhead inbound to a moving target that you cannot locate outside of your own intelligence on a war footing is no easy feat in itself and has yet to be proven.

If you have read the prior posts then you would know exactly what the possibilities actually are and what its defense possibilities can be and its battle group actually are.

[Dreadnought]

what about the sub that surfaced closed to the kitty hawk carrier group undetected? Thats gotta raise some concerns.

Following an aged fossile fueled carrier that makes more noise then any these days is not such a hard trick. Following a nuclear carrier that sounds much different takes an art.

And by following, you would also notice that the escorts didnt mess with the sub, they werent looking for it, why? Because a Chinese sub wouldnt attack the carrier group on a peace time footing. If it did, the US may have lost an older fossile fuel carrier. But then again they probably would have been looking for one if they were on a wartime footing knowing China has nothing on the surface that can challenge the CVNBG.

They still have 11 Nimitz nuclear powered CNV's.

But, I would also put money on the sub not escaping and the reprisal that comes shortly afterwards either by its escorts or the subs that wrangle the area.

Is it worth it to take out a carrier that is aged, fossile fueled and going to be retired shorty after arriving home at the time and the aftermath? I doubt it.

[winton]

Following an aged fossile fueled carrier that makes more noise then any these days is not such a hard trick. Following a nuclear carrier that sounds much different takes an art.

are we just shifting the goal post here. When the news broke, there was much concern going on in washington. These carriers are usually accompanied with multiple support ships, so its not just the noise signature of just one ship.

And by following, you would also notice that the escorts didnt mess with the sub, they werent looking for it, why? Because a Chinese sub wouldnt attack the carrier group on a peace time footing.

Of course it wouldn't, but what you are saying is that since 9/11 these carrier battle groups have been blase about fleet security? Are the american taxpayers to believe that come war time, the navy's best will be more alert?

They still have 11 Nimitz nuclear powered CNV's.

Most of which are in dry dock or in other areas and on other duties. Its not like they will leave those areas of operation to regroup in the pacific. I would think that if a carrier was sunk, there would be some reservation by the top brass in exposing the other carriers to similar risk.

But, I would also put money on the sub not escaping and the reprisal that comes shortly afterwards either by its escorts or the subs that wrangle the area.

Thats possible if it were a sub, but then again, it could be the DF21.

Is it worth it to take out a carrier that is aged, fossile fueled and going to be retired shorty after arriving home at the time and the aftermath? I doubt it.

I think your overselling the propulsion system. If the carrier got sunk, there are multiple layers of defense systems which need to be reviewed.

[winton]

It most certainly does especially if that ship doesnt sink and is only damaged. The reprisal shortly afterwards will make you wish you had.

what sort of reprisals do you mean?

Directing a warhead inbound to a moving target that you cannot locate outside of your own intelligence on a war footing is no easy feat in itself and has yet to be proven.

We may never know since the Chinese are usualy tight lipped about their capabilities. They also love to throw out dis-information.

If you have read the prior posts then you would know exactly what the possibilities actually are and what its defense possibilities can be and its battle group actually are.

well, the defense with regards to the chinese sub was left wanting, I'm not sure if I can buy the peacetime excuse.

[Captain Worley]

I imagine events would have been quite different had the sub opened the outer torpedo doors....