Plausible things Taiwan's allies might do to assist if China invades

[zraver]

Taiwanese politicians in that case will be spending the next twenty years digging themselves out of the wreckage then.

I don't know about 20 years, but they would take a hit.

cdude..... In answer to your question. By government action, 1958.

What do you mean "prevent"? If the China can do enough damage to Taiwan, they would not go ahead and declare independence. It's a pretty simple calculation actually.

No its not... How many missiles does China have aimed at Taiwan? 2500ish... that is a maximum of 2500 tons of HE to cover an area of 35,883km^2.... In reality a lot of the missile have smaller warheads and multiple misisles targeted on the same point because of a lousy CEP. In addition, RoC has a lot of critical targets hardened. Missiles can raise the cost of independence, they cannot raise it to the point of impossibility, not without nukes. Now, nuclear blackmail of Taipai is a different story. As far as I know China has not gone there, at least not directly.

[cdude]

No its not... How many missiles does China have aimed at Taiwan? 2500ish... that is a maximum of 2500 tons of HE to cover an area of 35,883km^2.... In reality a lot of the missile have smaller warheads and multiple misisles targeted on the same point because of a lousy CEP. In addition, RoC has a lot of critical targets hardened. Missiles can raise the cost of independence, they cannot raise it to the point of impossibility, not without nukes. Now, nuclear blackmail of Taipai is a different story. As far as I know China has not gone there, at least not directly.

2500 missiles aimed at Taiwan. And China will not make any more when shit hits the fan. Right.

And of the 35,883km^2 Taiwan has, how much is not in Taipei? 35800km^2? Nobody says Taiwan independence is impossible. But the President of the Republic of China says there is only one China.

[Blademaster]

Books are cheap. Field exercises are expensive.

Yes but you need to put the things that you learned into practice so you can get the feel and iron the kinks out.

Half way through the war, everybody had already figured out what the PLA could or could not do.

The Vietnamese learned that the PLA was a different beast and had to be fought in other terms. I am sure that they have learnt their lessons by now.

[Blademaster]

2500 missiles aimed at Taiwan. And China will not make any more when shit hits the fan. Right.

And of the 35,883km^2 Taiwan has, how much is not in Taipei? 35800km^2? Nobody says Taiwan independence is impossible. But the President of the Republic of China says there is only one China.

You are assuming that the 2500 missiles would reach the island and Taiwan would sit by and do nothing. Nothing could be further from the truth.

[cdude]

You are assuming that the 2500 missiles would reach the island and Taiwan would sit by and do nothing. Nothing could be further from the truth.

No, I am assuming none of that will be used on Taiwan. Wake up, Taiwan and China are the allies against Japan/Vietnam/Phillippines.

And the alliance will only be tighter.

[Blademaster]

No, I am assuming none of that will be used on Taiwan. Wake up, Taiwan and China are the allies against Japan/Vietnam/Phillippines.

And the alliance will only be tighter.

They are stationed right across from Taiwan. The intention of those missile's whereabouts are known and made clear due to their limited range and orientation.

[Officer of Engineers]

Yes but you need to put the things that you learned into practice so you can get the feel and iron the kinks out.

The point is they don't have the money to iron anything out. They will be fantastic static fighters but the army that went all the way to Saigon has long ceased to exist.

The Vietnamese learned that the PLA was a different beast and had to be fought in other terms. I am sure that they have learnt their lessons by now.

The Chinese army that fought the 2nd Sino-VN War was a completely different beast than the one that fought the first one and the Chinese army today is completely different than that beast ... and all because the Chinese had the money to start training.

No, I am assuming none of that will be used on Taiwan. Wake up, Taiwan and China are the allies against Japan/Vietnam/Phillippines.

And the alliance will only be tighter.

30,000 Chinese troops fought alongside their Vietnamese allies against the Americans. Less than 10 years later, they were fighting a war against each other.

[cdude]

They are stationed right across from Taiwan. The intention of those missile's whereabouts are known and made clear due to their limited range and orientation.

The intention is to make sure no more idiots like Chen Shuibian.

Btw, the tough little clown Abian is in prison. Yeah, that's how much the Taiwanese people love him.

[cdude]

300,000 Chinese troops fought alongside their Vietnamese allies against the Americans. Less than 10 years later, they were fighting a war against each other.

The inter-dependence between China and Taiwan was simply not there between China and Vietnam in the 70's.

[Officer of Engineers]

Are you serious?

Before the Soviet rift, 100% of Vietnam's weapons came through China and a large number of that was of Chinese origin. I told you about the rice. There was also concrete, cranes and bulldozers that Vietnam needed after LB I and II. Never mind the the tacit understanding that had the Americans marched north, the PLA would march south. Vo may think otherwise but without China, Hanoi would have lost the war. Her people would have been starved into submission.

If anything, the relationship between China and Vietnam was far stronger during the American-Vietnam War than it is today between the ML and Taiwan.

[Linh_My]

The point is they don't have the money to iron anything out. They will be fantastic static fighters but the army that went all the way to Saigon has long ceased to exist.

I believe that you are referring to the Vietnamese Army. If so, 5-10 years ago that was very accurate. The Army was largely doing civilian infrastructure and the Navy and Air Force were starved of funding. About once a month I'd hear a Mig-21 do a couple of training flights. Now days, the road infrastructure is vastly improved, grade school kids have iPhone 4s and 5s, fighter training has vastly increased and I hear a lot of SU-30s doing training flights. The Police and Army have new vehicles. I just bought a 1970 CJ5 jeep ex US Civilian, ex VN Police Car from the VN vehicle Surplus Office. Israel is Viet Nam's third largest Arms supplier and is involved in a 850 vehicle tank upgrade project. India is first and Russia is third. Canada and Europe are also big arms suppliers including aircraft. I've mentioned and documented many of these facts on other posts. I've owned a house in Viet Nam since 1997 and for the last several years spend all but a month or two a year there and have seen these things with my own eyes as well as researching it on line and talking over a few brews with local Veterans from both sides.

Is the Vietnamese Army set up for static defense? Yes. Are they regaining a mobile capacity? Yes, as well as decent asymmetric Air Force and Naval capabilities.

[cdude]

Are you serious?

Before the Soviet rift, 100% of Vietnam's weapons came through China and a large number of that was of Chinese origin. I told you about the rice. There was also concrete, cranes and bulldozers that Vietnam needed after LB I and II. Never mind the the tacit understanding that had the Americans marched north, the PLA would march south. Vo may think otherwise but without China, Hanoi would have lost the war. Her people would have been starved into submission.

If anything, the relationship between China and Vietnam was far stronger during the American-Vietnam War than it is today between the ML and Taiwan.

All true but China was nothing but Vietnam's sugar daddy. And as soon as they found a bigger one in Soviet Union, they were able to easily switch side. They could do so because they had a Soviet style planned economy with a agriculture heavy backward economy. Look how they fared after the Soviet collapse.


On the other hand, 1 million Taiwanese live in China, including some of the top businessmen, actors, singers and even retired generals. 40% of Taiwan's exports are to China and HK. And the most powerful political figure in Taiwan is the President of the Republic of China who was accused of selling Taiwan to China by the DPP. Only two years later, the DPP sent its former presidential candidate to Mainland China to improve ties, twice.

I think the tie is pretty strong and healthy these days. And that's why I think the whole discussion is about something unlikely to happen.

[Officer of Engineers]

I think the tie is pretty strong and healthy these days. And that's why I think the whole discussion is about something unlikely to happen.

You're tap dancing.

[Officer of Engineers]

Is the Vietnamese Army set up for static defense? Yes. Are they regaining a mobile capacity? Yes, as well as decent asymmetric Air Force and Naval capabilities.

Even static defences need resupply and re-enforcements but as I stated, the army that marched to Saigon is long gone. Vietnam, like any other country at peace, could no longer afford such an army. Hell, she never did. She was well financed by China and the USSR. She has no such patron today.

[zraver]

2500 missiles aimed at Taiwan. And China will not make any more when shit hits the fan. Right.

And of the 35,883km^2 Taiwan has, how much is not in Taipei? 35800km^2? Nobody says Taiwan independence is impossible. But the President of the Republic of China says there is only one China.

This is why talking the real numbers involved with a fanboi is a pointless exercise if the object is to engage said fanboi. Instead I will use you as a foil. First, China can only make missiles so fast, not nearly as fast as she can fire them, they most definitely are a finite asset. You wont win a war firing dribs and drabs. Germany tried it in 44-45, Iraq and Iran both tried it in the 80's, Iraq tried again in 91... With missiles like carpet bombing its go big or go home.

Second, if taiwan decides to pursue independence, she will only do so if at least one of two conditions is met- 1. the popular will is there or 2 China has left them no choice. Either of those options pre-supposes that mere terror bombing wont work because the RoC is all in. No bomb Rotterdam and get a quick surrender here. This poses some problems for your bomb Taipei theory. First, to beat Taiwan you need to defeat her militarily. This means you need to defeat military targets. Second, even if there is some theoretical number if missiles that would subdue Taipei- its is orders of magnitude greater than 2500. It is after all a city of millions of people and tens of thousands of a hundred thousand structures, many them all but bullet proof as far as missiles are concerned. You know, built to withstand the massive impacts of both wind and earthquake that savage the city of a regular basis.

Thirdly, terror bombing would all but force the US to jump in and bring her allies with her by robbing China of any diplomatic cover. Go ahead and kill Taiwanese babies on CNN and Foxnews

Fourth, shooting missiles at a city still wont get PLA troops ashore. IN a contested environment it is easier for the US to get marines to Formosa from San Diego than it is for China to get them there from the Mainland. Start shooting up Taipei and you will see a marine unit sent there for the simple fact it checkmates any Chinese move to invade unless China wants to go all in vs the US. Kill our marines and its not just the US demonstrating, its a shooting war that China can't win.

China will bluster and push, she is a rising power. But it will a good long while before she stops peeing on the carpet and showing her belly when the US really growls. This is because fundamentally the US and China see war in two very different ways. We in the US see war as a continuum up to and INCLUDING nuclear war. Literally we have thousands of people in the USAF and USN trained to kill millions with the push of a button. China only sees it up to, but does not include nuclear as an option. Thus at the end of the day, China is bringing Nerf darts to the apocalypse.