Plausible things Taiwan's allies might do to assist if China invades

[Officer of Engineers]

What do you mean "prevent"? If the China can do enough damage to Taiwan, they would not go ahead and declare independence. It's a pretty simple calculation actually.

The PLA can't win. It's really simple. You see. China did a hell of a lot of damage to Northern Vietnam and Vietnam still gone ahead and did everything against Chinese interest ... because they will win.

[cdude]

The PLA can't win. It's really simple. You see. China did a hell of a lot of damage to Northern Vietnam and Vietnam still gone ahead and did everything against Chinese interest ... because they will win.

I am not saying PLA can win. I'm saying China can damage Taiwan enough if needed and it will be a lose-lose situation that nobody wants (certainly Taiwan doesn't). That will make Taiwan think twice before declaring independence.

The more damage China can do to Taiwan, the less likely Taiwan will declare independence. The less likely we'll have a war.

So a strong PLA can "prevent" a Taiwan independence.

[Officer of Engineers]

How did that do to stop Vietnam from pummeling Cambodia?

[cdude]

How did that do to stop Vietnam from pummeling Cambodia?

Vietnam was a backward third world communist country, like China in the 60's and 70's. You cannot damage a backward third world communist country easily. There is not too much to begin with.

And what's the trade volume between China and Vietnam in 1979?

[Officer of Engineers]

300,000 refugees one way ... but let me asked you this. Could Vietnam won her war against the US without Chinese rice? Or Chinese engineers and AD regiments? What happened?

[cdude]

300,000 refugees one way ... but let me asked you this. Could Vietnam won her war against the US without Chinese rice? Or Chinese engineers and AD regiments? What happened?

There are a bunch of cost/benefit equations here that are drastically different from one another. That makes the comparison completely irrelevant. You are comparing Vietnam in the 70's that traded nothing with the outside world with Taiwan today that depends on trade economically and with one million of her citizens living in China. Ten missiles landed on Hanoi in 1979 would change nothing but one missile to the general direction of Taiwan and Taiwan's economy would collapse. Are we really comparing the two?

[Officer of Engineers]

Horse Puckey. Taiwan suffered an earthquake that the entire Chinese nuclear arsenal could not duplicate.

And in case you don't get it. In four years time, Vietnam went from depending on Chinese rice and worthwhile ally to outright hostilities. To the point that the PLA was forced to act. At some point, the threat is not enough. The PLA could not "prevent" Vietnam from doing anything even though she could have just starved Vietnam four years earlier.

[Linh_My]

Do we still have any air assets at Clark International Airport? I know it USED to be an Air Force Base; it's not too far from Taiwan, either.

Clark was pretty well destroyed by a volcano

[Linh_My]

Horse Puckey. Taiwan suffered an earthquake that the entire Chinese nuclear arsenal could not duplicate.

And in case you don't get it. In four years time, Vietnam went from depending on Chinese rice and worthwhile ally to outright hostilities. To the point that the PLA was forced to act. At some point, the threat is not enough. The PLA could not "prevent" Vietnam from doing anything even though she could have just starved Vietnam four years earlier.

Officer of Engineers

The conventional wisdom is that China could walk all over Viet Nam any time that the decided to do so. I've spent too much time, military and civilian, in Viet Nam to believe that for one second. I do wonder why you have what appears to be the same opinion.

[Officer of Engineers]

Today?

Not a chance. The PLA could win a border war but march all the way to Hanoi? Their logistics and doctrines won't allow them. In fact, their current doctrine is aimed at deterrence, not warfighting. They want to deter the enemy from doing something nasty, not outright military actions to stop them from doing something nasty.

For that, their entire current military thinking is based on their War Zone Campaign. Basically, within 100 miles of their staging area, they aim to destroy any and all opposing forces, ie a battle of annihilation.

The obvious counter to that ... to which the Vietnamese already figured out. Do not offer nor accept battle.

[cdude]

Today?

Not a chance. The PLA could win a border war but march all the way to Hanoi? Their logistics and doctrines won't allow them. In fact, their current doctrine is aimed at deterrence, not warfighting. They want to deter the enemy from doing something nasty, not outright military actions to stop them from doing something nasty.

For that, their entire current military thinking is based on their War Zone Campaign. Basically, within 100 miles of their staging area, they aim to destroy any and all opposing forces, ie a battle of annihilation.

The obvious counter to that ... to which the Vietnamese already figured out. Do not offer nor accept battle.

Hanoi is roughly 100 miles from Pinxiang, Guangxi

[Officer of Engineers]

To which the PLA will have to open the road from Lang Son to Hanoi first. Lang Son was the anticipated battle of annihilation during the 1st Sino-VN War. The Vietnamese did not accept battle, at least not on Chinese terms, and though the road was opened, the PLA was already exhausted in both men and material. And fresh Vietnamese divisions were surrounding Hanoi.

[Blademaster]

To which the PLA will have to open the road from Lang Son to Hanoi first. Lang Son was the anticipated battle of annihilation during the 1st Sino-VN War. The Vietnamese did not accept battle and though the road was opened, the PLA was already exhausted in both men and material.

Are the Vietnamese generals any good now? They can easily improve their combat capability just by sending officers to Army War College and learn about logistics and movements and artillery school.

[cdude]

To which the PLA will have to open the road from Lang Son to Hanoi first. Lang Son was the anticipated battle of annihilation during the 1st Sino-VN War. The Vietnamese did not accept battle, at least not on Chinese terms, and though the road was opened, the PLA was already exhausted in both men and material. And fresh Vietnamese divisions were surrounding Hanoi.

Is there any evidence that the PLA had any plans to go all the way to Hanoi?


Sino-Vietnamese War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Seems that Deng never had the plan to march to Hanoi because of the Soviets.

[Officer of Engineers]

Are the Vietnamese generals any good now? They can easily improve their combat capability just by sending officers to Army War College and learn about logistics and movements and artillery school.

Books are cheap. Field exercises are expensive.

Is there any evidence that the PLA had any plans to go all the way to Hanoi?

He wanted to demonstrate that he could do it. Half way through the war, everybody had already figured out what the PLA could or could not do.