Plausible things Taiwan's allies might do to assist if China invades

[tbm3fan]

Given the way the Philippines works it seems most likely that as a nation without any worthwhile combat aircraft or a navy worth a damn they got rid of the one nation actually prepared to defend them out of a sense of national pride. Taking money from China would at least be a logical motive. Makes it less likely.

Oh don't ever count on the Philippines to be logical. In fact not ever as they really don't know what the word means. Salonga wanted America out out of purely nationalistic pride. He wanted to assert that the Philippines was no longer a colony of America. Nonetheless the vote, in the Senate, was 12-11 so it was close. I'm looking for info on the breakdown for who voted no and who voted yes. I have heard, unsubstantiated, that Senators from the Visayas voted no. On the other hand Senators from Northern Luzon voted yes. Basically yes if in your backyard and no if not in your backyard. America didn't help itself with the proposed treaty more in favor of the U.S.

There is still debate on this issue today. Those who see the power vacuum left by the American withdrawal of the 7th Fleet vis a vis the Chinese moving in. Others saying why should we invite the Americans back in just because of the Spratly Islands. They feel they aren't worth anything other than overlooking the obvious like mineral rights, oil rights and fishing rights. Their pride can be so overwhelming that it blinds them to all else.

Whatever they do doesn't really matter to me anymore. Having traveled there continuously since 1990 I have come to the conclusion that the country is not saveable. Too much pride, too much greed, too much envy, too much living in the day, too many molehills being made into mountains that I just gave up. They have made their bed and now they can lie in it. I just go to visit friends, kick back on a beach, maybe do some scuba diving and give my wife a chance to see family.

[Bigfella]

Oh don't ever count on the Philippines to be logical. In fact not ever as they really don't know what the word means. Salonga wanted America out out of purely nationalistic pride. He wanted to assert that the Philippines was no longer a colony of America. Nonetheless the vote, in the Senate, was 12-11 so it was close. I'm looking for info on the breakdown for who voted no and who voted yes. I have heard, unsubstantiated, that Senators from the Visayas voted no. On the other hand Senators from Northern Luzon voted yes. Basically yes if in your backyard and no if not in your backyard. America didn't help itself with the proposed treaty more in favor of the U.S.

There is still debate on this issue today. Those who see the power vacuum left by the American withdrawal of the 7th Fleet vis a vis the Chinese moving in. Others saying why should we invite the Americans back in just because of the Spratly Islands. They feel they aren't worth anything other than overlooking the obvious like mineral rights, oil rights and fishing rights. Their pride can be so overwhelming that it blinds them to all else.

Whatever they do doesn't really matter to me anymore. Having traveled there continuously since 1990 I have come to the conclusion that the country is not saveable. Too much pride, too much greed, too much envy, too much living in the day, too many molehills being made into mountains that I just gave up. They have made their bed and now they can lie in it. I just go to visit friends, kick back on a beach, maybe do some scuba diving and give my wife a chance to see family.

I recently suggested to someone, only partly in jest, that they admit that the whole thing is a failure and split the joint up between the neighbours - Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan or China (or both if you wish). At least it would be functional.

[astralis]

mith,

The US could presumably strong arm its allies into participating, if American interests were held to be sufficiently at stake.

unlikely. the best that would likely be offered is basing for the americans. if china chooses to strike those bases-- and what you're talking about is really japan-- then maybe the japanese would get slotted in.

as BF mentioned, depending on the situation of the Taiwan scenario australia may or may not choose to participate in an active-role.

there's no one else.

China has a history of incrementally expansive territorial claims. Who knows where they end? Do they really want to face the Chinese colossus alone? Can they trust it not to engage in more land grabs? When the Pinoys booted Uncle Sam from Clark and Subic in the early 90's, they were presumably operating under the assumption that the world had entered a new era, that involuntary border changes were a relic that died out with Western imperialism. They are now rediscovering the reality that with respect to territorial issues, China's motto is the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must, or equivalently, China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that's just a fact.

However, your point is a detour from the topic posted and deserves a separate discussion of its own. The topic here is what plausible steps Taiwan's allies, assuming any materialize, could take to help without touching off a wider war, in the event China invades.

actually it seems to me that both the points you made here are detours from your opening post. :) the questions you asked were:

Would allied aircraft be stationed be stationed on Taiwanese soil?

answer to that is: no, because 1.) it's overwhelmingly likely that the only allies would be the US, 2.) why would the US want to base itself on an island that will be under continual missile barrages and well within the operating capabilities of the PLAAF, 3.) resupply and logistics nightmare.

Would the PLAN mount a blockade of Taiwan by setting up a Maritime Exclusion Zone around the main island?

depends on the scenario, but likely

Would allied ground troops be placed on Taiwanese soil?

no, for all the reasons in number one-- only more so.

[astralis]

dread,

POTUS is bound by Treaty that he himself cannot change to defend Tawain.

this is not correct. the US has a deliberate policy of strategic ambiguity. the Taiwan Relations Act does -not- require the US to militarily intervene.

one of the reasons for this is to prevent Taiwan from deliberately declaring independence and counting on the US to make that good.

OTOH if china were to aggressively attack Taiwan then it's certainly much more likely the US would intervene.

Add to this the US State Department ,Congress and the War Department not liking the idea altogether since China has elected not to follow UN sanctions against Iran.

this is not likely to influence anything, but...

In addition to this it would seem pretty clear that if China elected to follow this action then what would stop her from doing the very same thing to the Islands that her and Japan are in dispute over outside of a US presence.

this carries greater weight.

[Dreadnought]

That thought never occurred to me, given the nationalistic tenor of Filipino politics with respect to the presence of American bases on their soil. I doubt it was the deciding factor, although it's certainly possible that local politicians took money from Chinese government sources to eject Uncle Sam. Since they wanted US troops out anyway, why not get paid as well?

Then I misread you post. Meaculpa.

The artcle I linked to shows the USN still has facilities for servicing ships and port visits. The deciding factor IMO was the nuclear weapons issues. But although Bush Sr removed them from all surface ships and the Philippines uped the rent (not a big issue) the USN already decided to redeploy to other locations, the amount of money that it took to do that couldnt be reclaimed once the process started so instead of wasting those millions they moved. But the USN still does have the drydock and port facilities for servicing ships and resupply structure still in place. They also expect its use to expand once again with many more "port visits".

Subic is like a studio apartment for the USN.

Clark due to volcanic activity was vacated with good reason. Nothing to negociate there, cant make deals with mother nature.

[Mihais]

There are 2 kinds of ships:submarines and targets.And there is only one sort of real men along very sensitive pipelines from Central Asia and those are special forces.

All Eastern coast of China is a target rich environment.

The point being that China,strategically,is as much of an island as Taiwan.The more allies the better for US,but China can be done by the US and Taiwan alone.

[cdude]

There are 2 kinds of ships:submarines and targets.And there is only one sort of real men along very sensitive pipelines from Central Asia and those are special forces.

All Eastern coast of China is a target rich environment.

The point being that China,strategically,is as much of an island as Taiwan.The more allies the better for US,but China can be done by the US and Taiwan alone.

None of what you said makes much sense. Especially this: "The point being that China,strategically,is as much of an island as Taiwan". First, Russia will not cut oil supply to China for Taiwan. But you will retort"china and russia together is nothing but a bigger island." Wrong, China by her size can only be categorized as a continent. With one billion people living on it and the largest economy (I doubt China will invade Taiwan before she takes over the US in the GDP race), China needs no freaking allies.

But the whole post is nonsense. Taiwan is China's ally. Just ask Japan/Phillipines/Vietnam

[Officer of Engineers]

With one billion people living on it and the largest economy (I doubt China will invade Taiwan before she takes over the US in the GDP race), China needs no freaking allies.

Of course she does.

[Dreadnought]

Of course she does.

IMO, Sir she needs those allies for the resources she needs to keep that economy moving. Well resources and trade.

[cdude]

IMO, Sir she needs those allies for the resources she needs to keep that economy moving. Well resources and trade.

In peaceful times, you don't have to be allies to trade. Just recently, China has become one of the top oil importers from the US. Will be top 3 soon. US Oil Export Destinations - Business Insider

In war times, we have central Asia and Burma. No, by the time next war starts, we'll have tanks run on alternative energy.

[Skywatcher]

There are 2 kinds of ships:submarines and targets.And there is only one sort of real men along very sensitive pipelines from Central Asia and those are special forces.

All Eastern coast of China is a target rich environment.

The point being that China,strategically,is as much of an island as Taiwan.The more allies the better for US,but China can be done by the US and Taiwan alone.

That's assuming you have enough bombs for China.

Not to mention that in the event of an unilateral move by Taipei, good luck in persuading people like South Korea to cut the China trade.

[Officer of Engineers]

In war times, we have central Asia and Burma. No, by the time next war starts, we'll have tanks run on alternative energy.

Doesn't change the fact that China needs allies. If only not to start any troubles elsewhere while her eye is on Taiwan. The US got NATO keeping things calm in Europe, the Atlantic, the Middle East, and if need be, in Africa. China got nothing protecting the Sea of China when she turns her eye onto Taiwan. Never mind Tibet and Xinjiang.

[Officer of Engineers]

So Cdude, you're not as smart as you think you are.

[cdude]

Doesn't change the fact that China needs allies. If only not to start any troubles elsewhere while her eye is on Taiwan. The US got NATO keeping things calm in Europe, the Atlantic, the Middle East, and if need be, in Africa. China got nothing protecting the Sea of China when she turns her eye onto Taiwan. Never mind Tibet and Xinjiang.

The only event that will trigger a Chinese invasion would be a unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan. I doubt it will happen in 10 years, and by then China will have a great ally to protect her seas, it's called PLA Navy.

[Officer of Engineers]

The only event that will trigger a Chinese invasion would be a unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan. I doubt it will happen in 10 years, and by then China will have a great ally to protect her seas, it's called PLA Navy.

As I stated, you're not as smart as you think you are. Look at the ship building output. What are the numbers in 10 years time? Now, add in the ships that are due for retirement.