Korean Reunification Imminent? Thoughts

[Doktor]

Unless, they believe they all carry nukes.

[Gun Grape]

The NorKs better do something quick.

They have reached the point where they can either attack South Korea or they can send their soilders out to the farms for planting season.

[gf0012-aust]

That seems to be one of the more popular theories outside the more hysterical commentators.

its pretty common internal chat that the NorKs are pushing the boundaries because they believe that they get more concessions that way.

I've heard speculation about 'testing' the new President, but not the misogyny angle. Given the lady's history I don't see her as the type to let herself get pushed around.

I don't think its about testing the new Presidentl, I think it's about little Kim trying to cement his position amongst the military - lets remember he's already removed some of those senior staff who were loyal to his father. If there is dynastic loyalty then removing senior military and advisors is unnecessary, removing those that were closest to his father is significant posturing

As for pushing her around, unlikely. There is significant feeling amongst senior south kor military that the NorKs are due for payback for what happened to the Cheonan. I actually doubt that she would even try to hold back her senior staff if the NorKs made another military gesture - and she would lose her job for being weak.

Seemed sorta obvious to me. Can't help wondering how many of them will just eject as soon as they are sure they are over the border.....assuming they get that far.

they won't get far. there's a couple of Chinese Divs sitting on that border - and they're not just there for their looks. The Chinese have got the $chitts with NorKs leaking over the border as it currently stands, and the last thing they want is a couple of million refugees imposing themselves on the locals and causing an extra burden on existing local infrastructure as well as being a trigger for ethnic tension (chinese locals are happy to sell to a captive market, but they don't want them as immediate neighbours)

China doesn't want or need a unified Korea. They're key to defusing this because its also in their interests to do so. Any decisions are going to be about geo-political impacts on china - less so on the best benefit to North Korea.
South Korea, for all the familial issues only has to look west and see how well unification worked out for West Germany. A strong economy crippled for decades and which still suffers from a whole cohort of people who might speak a similar language, but are still in some areas culturally on another planet.

[RollingWave]

It's a dilemma for China and the US, but more so for the former, they don't want a united Korea that is most likely going to be more favoring of the US, then again, if the alternative is them taking care of a few million refugee, or having to prop up a ever more failing state for ever longer, then is that really a better alternative?

For the US, IMHO the moment Korea is unified is the moment they'll politely demand the US forces to leave Korea, it'll change the makeup of the region considerably, and given that the US have profited a lot from the current setup, why would they risk changing it?

Unfortunately , NK would probably force the issue at some point, though that point maybe tomorrow or 30 years from now. But I would assume that if I live a fairly long life I would see a united Korea within my lifetime.