North Korea Appears to Test Nuclear Device

[Zinja]

The point is that it is not predictable. The fissile materials were being blown away from the initiation rather than adding to it. This time, it's 6-7 kts. The next might be two, four, one, zero.

Sir, I think by now some pretty good predictability is emerging. US's estimates on the first were 0.8kT, 2.4kT on the second and now 6kT(according to SK) for the third one. A clear pattern is emerging that gives some reasonable predictability.

[Officer of Engineers]

Sir, I think by now some pretty good predictability is emerging. US's estimates on the first were 0.8kT, 2.4kT on the second and now 6kT(according to SK) for the third one. A clear pattern is emerging that gives some reasonable predictability.

All under perfect conditions ... well, as close as the NORKs could get at it. Let's be clear about this. Not one test achieved full initiation which is what you want for a rocket based warhead. Do note that these are test devices under ideal static conditions. The NORKs have yet to develop fuses and re-entry vehicles. They can deliver these sub 10kt nukes via a flatbed truck ... and hope you don't get too many pot holes along the way.

[hanswu25]

The point here is not whether NK succeeds or fails in this test but they did make one step forward and one step closer to their goal, although it was a micro step. This time it was USA and China who failed to stop it from happening despite all diplomatic efforts or even assuming the Chinese did try to sabotage the test. So far the young Kim has not used missile and nuclear tests to beg for anything. He is stronger and more determine than he seemed. It means it may require a whole new approach to handle the new regime, likely a harder one. I think it is time for China to consider shutting the last door to NK or step after step, we would eventually come to the point that nobody could have a good laugh like you gentlemen having right now.

[Skywatcher]

Well if you want China or South Korea to do regime change, there has to be some several trillion dollars of reconstruction funds to go with it.

PS: I really don't buy the "China wants North Korea as a buffer zone against U.S. troops" argument. One U.S. Army division is probably beyond anything the PLA can field, but it's not like it'd be an existential threat to China in the event of war (can't see the ROKA fording the Yalu). In fact, if I was in charge of PACOM in such a situation, I'd be worried about the Chinese shelling the hell out of my forward deployed Brigade Combat Teams.

[kyli]

Well if you want China or South Korea to do regime change, there has to be some several trillion dollars of reconstruction funds to go with it.

As we all know, most of the time, these international funds are just empty promises.

[Officer of Engineers]

The point here is not whether NK succeeds or fails in this test but they did make one step forward and one step closer to their goal, although it was a micro step.

ONE STEP FORWARD?????

IT'S 10,000 STEPS BEHIND!!! The NORKS had this one chance to declare themselves a nuclear weapons power and trade for status. THEY FUCKING FAILED AND INVITE IT COMPLETE SANCTIONS!

THERE HAS BEEN NOT ONE OUNCE OF RICE SHIPPED NORTH AND NOW 20,000 TONS OF RICE WILL NOT BE SHIPPED SOUTH.

Kim betted this chance for the Americans to buy their silence ... the Americans don't have to spend one freaking cent to buy a freaking dud!

[ambidex]

India sees Pakistani hand in North Korea’s nuclear test - The Times of India

Indian perspective ;)

[Officer of Engineers]

India sees Pakistani hand in North Korea’s nuclear test - The Times of India

Indian perspective ;)

Stupid and idiotic and ill informed journalism. COME ON! A LOT OF PEOPLE SET THE STANDARD FOR CRITICAL ANALYSIS. THIS PIECE OF JOURNALISTIC GARBAGE DOES NOT BELONG HERE.

If you have read carefully, I have already stated what Pakistan was responsible for ... and none of it is written in that piece of newspaper toilet paper.

[ambidex]

Stupid and idiotic and ill informed journalism. COME ON! A LOT OF PEOPLE SET THE STANDARD FOR CRITICAL ANALYSIS. THIS PIECE OF JOURNALISTIC GARBAGE DOES NOT BELONG HERE.

If you have read carefully, I have already stated what Pakistan was responsible for ... and none of it is written in that piece of newspaper toilet paper.

I have Sir, that is why I have posted this article as it is affirming your point.

It might not have been explaining like you have because it is Indian journalism but it has mentioned about HEU and its link with Pakistan. .

[anil]

I know near to zilch about nuclear weapons but here is my question

A 10kt detonation on a densely populated region is enough to kill many people

Eg: a 10kt v/s a 100kt on beijing





Nuclear weapons are the easiest way to hurt even the most military rich country

[astralis]

someone hasn't read stuart slade.

[timc9]

Is there a law in international law that bans the sale of nuclear weapons or certain grade ballistics between countries?

If not, there needs to be. Why? Because I don't think north korea would launch the missiles themselves, i think they would sell them to terrorist groups for large amounts of capital, oil and other energy sources and then sit back and watch as the US gets pummelled by a small but well-equipped extremist group.
The US would struggle to negotiate a retaliation plan against NK unless a large majority of the world backed them.

[S2]

"Is there a law in international law that bans the sale of nuclear weapons or certain grade ballistics between countries...?"

Soooo...let me get this straight-a law made by some nebulous, vague internat'l body/court will restrict nuclear weapons/missile trade between DPRK and some unidentified terrorist entity but the nuclear retaliatory capability of America would be moot, although attacked by nuclear weapons traced to DPRK, "...without a large majority of the world..." backing us?

Can you spell I-M-P-E-A-C-H-M-E-N-T?

We don't roll that way.

Have internat'l laws against counterfeiting currency or selling illicit narcotics heretofore restricted DPRK? They already are quite ROGUE. Laws won't restrict their behavior.

"...I don't think north korea would launch the missiles themselves..."

The DPRK undoubtedly views nuclear weapons and the means of delivery as a guarantor of their state's existence and as a means to periodically extort vast sums of aid and capital by threatening to go beserk by rendering northwest Asia and a portion of America a radioactive wasteland. Their intention is to develop weapons and the means to accurately deliver them across the Pacific towards America and anything in-between.

[Officer of Engineers]

Is there a law in international law that bans the sale of nuclear weapons or certain grade ballistics between countries?

It's called the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Missile Technology Control Regime.

If not, there needs to be. Why? Because I don't think north korea would launch the missiles themselves, i think they would sell them to terrorist groups for large amounts of capital, oil and other energy sources and then sit back and watch as the US gets pummelled by a small but well-equipped extremist group.

So let me get this straight. There are terrorist groups with missiles silos, a nuclear release authority, geographic tracking systems, and target mapping systems that requires billions of dollars and thousands of support personnel, including janitors to clean the missile silos.

The US would struggle to negotiate a retaliation plan against NK unless a large majority of the world backed them.

Why? Since you admit you're new and learning in your second year. I will give you this piece of advice.

Read a hell of a lot more than you post and your first few posts should be questions, not assumptions that see sunshine as much as used toilet paper.

[Officer of Engineers]

And this test isn't part of the Iranian nuclear program? They seem to exchange help and technology on everything else. Is it possible one day one of these nuclear tests isn't going to be a North Korean device, but an Iranian built device being tested for them?

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi is all over the news today, believing to be present at this 3rd test. If so, then, we have a lot of information here.

The test is based upon a Pakistani Chagai-I warhead since Iran is not equipped for a Pu bomb like the previous two NORK attempts. Enrichment to warhead is way too short for the NORKs to come up with a design of their own that can fit onto a rocket. The only obvious candidate is the Chagai-I via AQ Khan.

The simple fact that the NORKs reproduced the same results as the Pakistanis meant that the design flaw ain't obvious and could not be gleamed from studying the blueprint itself. The NORKs said that they are ready to test another device this year ... which tells us a hell of a lot.

1) They don't have an arsenal, not even in component form. They don't even have a second test device ready to go. They also do not have confidence in their own designs. Otherwise, a second test would have followed in days, not weeks or months.

2) They are determined to have a working nuke and missile ... or rather the image of a working nuke and missile. Thus far, I am the only one I can find who has called this test a dud but everybody else is screaming the sky is falling.