Stalin's three plans

[cataphract]

Its extrapolated for the way Cold war Soviet formations were set up. The Red Army had truly impressive bridging and engineering assets and had their divisions in echelon- those closest to the border with NATO were more fully staffed than those farther into the interior.

However this TOE reflects the lessons of WWII and is not a good guide for Soviet doctrine or plans before WWII and the horrors it visited on the Rodina.

Also I find the argument, that Stalin knew his army was gutted somewhat lacking. That didn't stop him in Finland. While the Winter War was undoutably a shock, it did not stop him from launching the Continuation War in the late spring of 41.

Would Stalin have actually attacked in the summer of 41... I doubt it, the reality is the Red Army was not ready, but it is equally likely that Stalin may have thought he could change this by force of will and NKVD enforcers. The deployments to the border definitely look offensive in nature.

The continuation war was launched by the Finns, not the Soviets.

[astralis]

moreover, stalin knew the difference between taking on a secondary power like finland or poland and a great power like Germany. the fact that the Soviets did so poorly against the Finns undoubtedly made him rather more leery of taking on Germany.

[zraver]

moreover, stalin knew the difference between taking on a secondary power like finland or poland and a great power like Germany. the fact that the Soviets did so poorly against the Finns undoubtedly made him rather more leery of taking on Germany.

Doubtful, look at how many counter attacks he threw against the Germans in 41 and 42 when it was clear his forces were totally outclassed. He kept trying to use mass to compensate. Stalin was not a defensive minded person. He believed in the offense, it was a key advantage over Hitler who believed in the defense. Hitler wanted to attack only to reach the next defensive line, Stalin only wanted to attack until he won.

[zraver]

The continuation war was launched by the Finns, not the Soviets.

Finland's actions were provocative, but the first armed act was Soviet not Finnish.

[Mihais]

Gentlemen,reading through the memoirs of the Soviet marshalls at my disposal,I have yet to find any hint of defensive mindset.They all were aware war was coming.However their maneuvers and planning,involving the latest intel available was oriented towards offense.Eg. the 12th army,where Bagramean was G3 conducted several large scale maneuvers in the months prior to the war.They were busy calculating how fast a motorized division could cross a pass in the Carpathians or how to break the German defense on the San river.The CO of the 12 th army and the G3 had quite a disagreement over the required force ratio in the main effort sector.District commander,colonel-general Kirponos had to intervene to modify the decision of the army CG.Later on,when then colonel Bagramean is moved at Kiev,their focus doesn't change.It's just a bigger scale,with several armies.

I haven't read in about a dozen memoirs of Soviet generals and marshalls a word about defensive preparations.Some complained that later on they had to learn about retrograde operations on the job.And as can be sen from the lil' example above,they were rather busy when it came to field exercises.And these are books written in the 50's,60's or the 70's.An age when censorship was rampant in that part of the world.

[Mihais]

Finland's actions were provocative, but the first armed act was Soviet not Finnish.

Yep,Finland's actions were provocative.It existed as an independent state.That's enough.

[astralis]

mihais,

Gentlemen,reading through the memoirs of the Soviet marshalls at my disposal,I have yet to find any hint of defensive mindset.

can't imagine that they would. defensive operations for the soviets? how dare you even think of giving up the rodina with your defeatist attitude, "comrade" general?

[astralis]

z,

Doubtful, look at how many counter attacks he threw against the Germans in 41 and 42 when it was clear his forces were totally outclassed. He kept trying to use mass to compensate. Stalin was not a defensive minded person. He believed in the offense, it was a key advantage over Hitler who believed in the defense. Hitler wanted to attack only to reach the next defensive line, Stalin only wanted to attack until he won.

well, he had little choice by then.

but note that it -wasn't- stalin who started the war, after all. nor was he planning to in 1941 or 1942. stalin was aggressive, he wasn't stupid. also one reason why he didn't want to push the allies to the sea in 1945.

[zraver]

z,

well, he had little choice by then.

He had little choice to fight defensively vs offensively? Finland, Japan, the frontier battles during Barbarossa, Moscow Counter Attack, spring offensives in 42.... He only thought in the offensive.

As for thew allies in 45, he would have failed, there is no way the Red Army could ahve sustained operations under the total air dominance of the Western Allies reaching deep into Poland and Eastern Europe...

but note that it -wasn't- stalin who started the war, after all. nor was he planning to in 1941 or 1942. stalin was aggressive, he wasn't stupid. also one reason why he didn't want to push the allies to the sea in 1945.[/QUOTE]

[astralis]

z,

He had little choice to fight defensively vs offensively? Finland, Japan, the frontier battles during Barbarossa, Moscow Counter Attack, spring offensives in 42.... He only thought in the offensive.

i mean by the time the germans initiated barbarossa, stalin didn't have much choice but to try for the mass attacks. the conscript armies of 1941, led by flunky officers, were not capable of carrying out the flexible defense/counter-attack/deep battle of two-three years down the line.

nor could he give up too much space too fast, given how fast the germans were already advancing, lest he lost his factories before being able to shift them beyond the urals.

As for thew allies in 45, he would have failed, there is no way the Red Army could ahve sustained operations under the total air dominance of the Western Allies reaching deep into Poland and Eastern Europe...

of course, and he knew this. he also knew that the allies had the bomb coming. were he blindly aggressive, though, he would have charged right on in.

a la hitler in 1940 against the french and 1941 against the russians. in both cases, but especially in 1940, the wehrmacht high command was damned scared by the sheer audacity of hitler's actions.

[Mihais]

z,



i mean by the time the germans initiated barbarossa, stalin didn't have much choice but to try for the mass attacks. the conscript armies of 1941, led by flunky officers, were not capable of carrying out the flexible defense/counter-attack/deep battle of two-three years down the line.

nor could he give up too much space too fast, given how fast the germans were already advancing, lest he lost his factories before being able to shift them beyond the urals.



of course, and he knew this. he also knew that the allies had the bomb coming. were he blindly aggressive, though, he would have charged right on in.

a la hitler in 1940 against the french and 1941 against the russians. in both cases, but especially in 1940, the wehrmacht high command was damned scared by the sheer audacity of hitler's actions.

Yet,Stalin had the Stalin Line and a quite defensive mindset in the 30's.The Soviets also had a quite good defensive position in 1941.When hard pressed,the Soviets were also quite good at static defense.See Sevastopol,Odessa, Leningrad and Kursk .

[zraver]

Yet,Stalin had the Stalin Line

Started before Stalin, and never intended to stop invaders but to channel them.

and a quite defensive mindset in the 30's.

Strongly disagree. They claimed to be peaceful and defensive to the world but lets look at where Soviet R&D and other rubles went.
Built 20,000+ tanks
built 12,000+ air craft
Development of the deep battle concept

BT fast cavalry tanks
T-28 Medium
T-35 heavy
KV-2 seige tanks
Gaz-AA-4M SPAA
122mm M30 Howizter (out ranged all contemporary 105mm)
Katusha rocket system
TB-3 4 engined bomber
DB-2 and Tupolev SB long range medium bombers
Comitern 5th column

The Soviets also had a quite good defensive position in 1941.

That had been heavily denuded of arms, or abandoned to launch doomed counter attacks.

When hard pressed,the Soviets were also quite good at static defense.See Sevastopol,Odessa, Leningrad and Kursk .

No, they were quiet good at city defense, not static except when the area to be covered was fairly small.

[Mihais]

You missed the point.In the 30's the Red Army was not going to attack anyone.It developed a doctrine and everything else,but practically they were to sit back.The stalin Line was meant to channel the attacks,but it was way better than nothing.Where it remained more or less intact,ie. around Odessa and along the Dnestr it was no push-over.Stalin line was dismantled after 1939.The massive expansion of the Red Army also began after Hitler and Joe became the ''bestest of buddies''.
Soviet army had a year and a half to fortify its new borders.It might not have stopped the Germans,but it would have bought time to establish a new defense on the old frontier,on the Dnepr etc... and for reserves to show up.Had they actually been afraid of the Germans.For ''some'' reason they were ready to bleed white an hypothetical Polish-Romanian attack,but when they became Hitler's neighbours they let the guard down.

[zraver]

You missed the point.In the 30's the Red Army was not going to attack anyone.It developed a doctrine and everything else,but practically they were to sit back.

In the 1930's it did not, except in Asia. Though they did in the 20's. However, look how fast the Soviets moved after the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. As soon as Stalin through he had secure borders he began taking bites out of his neighbors. He did so with an army he thought was geared and trained for the offensive.

The massive expansion of the Red Army also began after Hitler and Joe became the ''bestest of buddies''.

A look at the Red Army's OOB for 1939 before the pact shows a force structured as an invading army. 110 infantry divisions each with a battalion of tanks, 44 cavalry divisions with an armored car regiment, 4 medium/heavy tank divisions and 21 battle or cavalry tank divisions. Yes I know they were listed as brigades but have divisional levels of tanks. For the era that is a shit ton of mobile formations.

We see a similar story in the Red Air Force. The Soviets had 6000 or so defensive fighters but 8300 offensive bombers. Remember in the 30's the prevailing thought was the bomber will always get through.

This equipment is backed by doctrine and a demonstration of the political will to use it if they thought they could get away with it.

Yes, I know by 39 and into 41 many of the planes could not fly, many of the tanks could not run... But did Stalin know this or did fear of his wrath and created paper work and judicious use of cannibalizing give him a false sense of readiness.

Had they actually been afraid of the Germans.

Thats the key right there, they were not, they [may have] thought that they would be the one delivering bitchslaps, not the one receiving them. German performance in Poland while note worthy in what it attempted to do and the doctrine it unveiled was not overly competent. This also during a time when the Red Army was re-organizing away from the massive tank brigades as a result of the purges. It was not until the Low Countries and France that the Soviets noticed that Poland may have only been a C grade but that by the next test the Germans had learned and pulled a solid A.

[Mihais]

So,we don't actually disagree.The thing is after R-M pact,compulsory military service was introduced.Up until then conscription was very selective.A massive number of new divisions was formed,with all those that until then were extempted from military service.We're talking hundreds of divisions of all sorts.Around mid-1941 (before the war)another batch of several hundreds was formed,and it showed up just in time to meet the Germans at Vyazma and Moscow.The thing is,of course,that the invasion was unexpected,so Stalin was preparing for the invasion he did not believed in.

What we do know from practice is that both the Finns and the Poles mopped the floor with the soviet troops they encountered,yet it did not stopped the Reds.The Finns ultimately lost land,and the Poles lost the chance to stop the Germans.If there was any grand lesson Stalin learned it was that numbers matter,and he was about to have 400 infantry divisions and 10000 T34's in fall 1941.

Btw,the term for the 1939 conscripts was 2 years.Meaning autumn 1941 they go home.

All sorts of weird things.