Record decline in Japan population

[xinhui]

I'm withholding my comments for now because i am not sure it is good or bad for a such overpopulated nation.


Record decline in Japan population
04:45 AM Jan 02, 2013
TOKYO - Japan's population last year declined by 212,000, the biggest drop on record, according to an estimate by the nation's Health Ministry.

The ministry said the number of newborn babies last year fell to a record low of 1.033 million, down by 18,000 from 2011, Kyodo News reported. Total number of deaths last year is expected to total 1.245 million.

Based on those numbers, the natural population decline obtained by deducting deaths from births was estimated at 212,000 last year - which is higher than the drop in 2011, the first time the decline exceeded 200,000 in a country with an ageing population.

The ministry said it is the largest reduction since it started recording the data in 1947.

The four leading causes of death in Japan were cancer, heart disease, pneumonia and cerebrovascular disease, which together accounted for 60 per cent of the overall death rate.

Japan's fertility rate - defined as the average number of children a woman will have over her lifetime - was 1.39 last year, unchanged from the previous year. On average, a person is born every 31 seconds and a person dies every 25 seconds. Japan has been trying for at least two decades to raise the birth rate without success.

Slowing population growth is a headache for Japan, which has a shrinking pool of taxable citizens and ballooning social welfare costs to care for an increasing number of elderly.

Social experts attribute the low population growth to factors including the high cost of raising children, more women choosing to remain in the workforce rather than opt for childbirth and the country's reluctance to accept immigrants.

The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research has predicted that Japan's total population would drop to 86.74 million in 2060, reported Kyodo News.

At the end of September, the latest period for which numbers were available, Japan's total population was estimated at 125.95 million. Agencies

[Bigfella]

I'm withholding my comments for now because i am not sure it is good or bad for a such overpopulated nation.

In theory a decline of some sort might have benefits for japan. A drop of 30% in 2 generations, however, may well produce more problems than benefits. Were Japan a nation where institutions of marriage & family were more welcoming to women & migration on a meaningful scale possible a 'soft landing' might be possible. At this point, short of some dramatic changes in Japanese social attitudes, it will be a 'hard landing'. My bet is that this will be bad for Japan.

[Mihais]

Japan is a world leader in robotics.They'll have little or no problem coping with the population fall.

[Doktor]

Robots don't fill social security and pension funds.

[Chogy]

I agree with the notion that it is trouble, potentially big trouble.

A country needs a fertility rate of 2.1 just to keep the population steady. At 1.39, Japan's rate is disastrous. It might be claimed with some truth that some nations need fewer people, but doing it very gradually is the way to go.

In 30 to 40 years, each Japanese worker will probably be financially supporting in one way or another, 2 or 3 seniors.

[Minskaya]

I agree with the notion that it is trouble, potentially big trouble. A country needs a fertility rate of 2.1 just to keep the population steady. At 1.39, Japan's rate is disastrous.

According to the CIA World Fact Book 2012, the world median is 2.47

My homelands have never recovered from the Stalinist/Nazi bloodletting of the 20th century. The moribund rate is also exacerbated by emigration, addictions, a poor healthcare system, and corruption. Russia - 1.61 / Belarus - 1.45 / Ukraine - 1.29.

[Bigfella]

According to the CIA World Fact Book 2012, the world median is 2.47

My homelands have never recovered from the Stalinist/Nazi bloodletting of the 20th century. The moribund rate is also exacerbated by emigration, addictions, a poor healthcare system, and corruption. Russia - 1.61 / Belarus - 1.45 / Ukraine - 1.29.

Undoubtedly one of the worst places outside Africa to have attempted to see out the C20th. Little wonder an author dubbed them the 'bloodlands' - and he was just covering the 30s & 40s rather than starting with the disasters of the earlier decades of the century. The remainder of the century was an improvement....but not anything that could be called 'success' (apart, perhaps , from a few former Warsaw Pact nations improving in the final decade).

Of course, declining birthrates in developing nations can be slowed by helping to offset the costs of raising children & minimizing the professional penalties imposed on women by child rearing. Our American friends usually refer to this sort of thing as 'socialism'. It requires money & fairly well developed social structures to work well. Failing that demographic decline can be offset by immigration, but the most desireable places tend to get the pick of the crop.

Japan has the added burden of a problem that is emerging in other East Asian societies such as Singapore, Taiwan & I think the Rok - a 'marriage strike' by professional women. In Singapore this issue was noticed as far back as the 1980s in the Chinese population. A problem for a nation that is not only obsessed by racial 'balance (read: keeping the Chinese percentage of the population as high as possible), but whose founding father & resident demi-god is a firm believer in eugenics. Reflecting on the problem Lee Kwan Yew once mused that educating women had been one fo Singapore's 'greatest mistakes'. In typical fashion the PAP government thought it could deal with this by micromanaging. They set up a government run 'dating agency' to introduce single professionals. Even welded on loyalists thought this was a silly idea. It failed, of course. The problem was never about meeting people. An Australian friend of mine gained some insight into one aspect of the problem during a decade spent living in Singapore. No prude, he was shocked by how open his male colleagues were about their infidelity, how little they tried to hide it from their wives, and how widespread that infidelity was. Not the only issue here, but illustrative of a wider problem. Singapore has partially dealt with this issue by importing people. Be interesting to see how other societies deal wiht this issue.

[Gun Grape]

I did my part in the late 80s.

Do I need to go back for a few years to help solve this "Problem"?

[Doktor]

In Japan Gunny? :red:

[Gun Grape]

Yes I lived/was stationed in Japan for 3.5 years when I was a single man.

[Bigfella]

I did my part in the late 80s.

Do I need to go back for a few years to help solve this "Problem"?

I'd love to hear you explain that to your good lady wife. I suspect she would relieve you of your ability to do any 'solving' rather promptly.

[Gun Grape]

I'd love to hear you explain that to your good lady wife. I suspect she would relieve you of your ability to do any 'solving' rather promptly.

I believe your right

[tbm3fan]

Yes I lived/was stationed in Japan for 3.5 years when I was a single man.

Hmm, 1.39 times 3.5 years equals 4.86 kids. Yep, you did your part...

[Gun Grape]

A wise MC Recruiter gave me great advice when I was on recruiters assistance after completing boot camp. "If you can't put her in the Marine Corps, Try to put some Marine Corps in her."

Until I got married, I tried to do my best living up to that standard.

And there is no way a Japanese National could join the Corps. They could barely speak English. But I could speak Japanese

[Doktor]

I'd love to hear you explain that to your good lady wife. I suspect she would relieve you of your ability to do any 'solving' rather promptly.

When you put it that way... it sounds like a bad thing.