Afghanistan/Pakistan war (what if)

[cyppok]

Scenario: 3-5 years from now.

Full blown revolt in tribal areas and the newly established Afghanistani Army of independent Afghanistan decides to intervine. India and Iran are supplying Afghanistan via Border and the Uzbek rail link. Small anti-air is provide to eliminate helicopter air support and low flying jets as well as anti tank weaponry.

"Durrand War" to eliminate the Durrand established border heats up when an insurgency is launched in Baluchistan to divert the Pakistan Army from commiting full force at reestablishing control of FATA Tribal Areas and to eliminate the prolifiration of the front into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

As the front is established along a perimeter of 4-5 mountain valleys where pushing through for the Pakistani Army becomes very very hard and slow stalemate like condition permeate.

What do you think happens next? economic steps and international pressure and how it would be applied. Etc... just different perspectives on this.

[Minskaya]

Scenario: 3-5 years from now.

For starters, I don't think the Karzai government will survive beyond 2015.

[zraver]

For starters, I don't think the Karzai government will survive beyond 2015.

His government dies with him....

[Bridgeburner_]

Why would Iran support Afghanistan over Pakistan when it comes to the future of Afghanistan? India I can understand wanting to have a relatively self-determined Afghanistan, but Iran?

[cyppok]

For starters, I don't think the Karzai government will survive beyond 2015.

Doesn't have to be his gov't. In all likelihood it will be semi-autonomous generals of the crumbling/collapsed state with warlords pushing for it on the border.

Why would Iran support Afghanistan over Pakistan when it comes to the future of Afghanistan? India I can understand wanting to have a relatively self-determined Afghanistan, but Iran?

Culturally Afghanistan is closer with at least some Persian speakers.
Pakistan is theoretically a US client state and the ISI involvement in Afghanistan in some sense displaces Iranian influence.
Iran is building a railway to re-connect to Herat and theoretically it would connect through to Uzbekistan in northern Afghanistan and onto China. Economically this could lead to closer integration regionally.
Tajiks more or less speak Farsi/Persian about a quarter of Afghanistan population.


The evolution of this if it happens would be pushed and prodded by various interested parties inside and outside the region. Considering the landscape of those region it is possible for a very very long struggle and Afghanistan winning by blocking passes and valleys. In some sense Pakistan suffers from a smoldering insurrection within these areas on a daily basis in addition to its' own religious insurrections in non Afghan border areas.

[Tronic]

For starters, I don't think the Karzai government will survive beyond 2015.

Well, that's not exactly a bad thing. His government lost credibility post-2009, and it will be nice to see him go so we can better gauge the future of Afghanistan.

[Officer of Engineers]

The Pakistani Army is still the most powerful force in the area. They've been deliberately fighting with one hand tied behind their back and the other hand has been pointing towards India. When push comes to shove, I sincerely doubt that the Pakistani Generals would yield to a bunch of mullahs and the bloodletting that I've been saying about Afghanistan after NATO leaves would be child's play in comparison to what the Pakistani Generals will do to stay in power.

[cyppok]

The Pakistani Army is still the most powerful force in the area. They've been deliberately fighting with one hand tied behind their back and the other hand has been pointing towards India. When push comes to shove, I sincerely doubt that the Pakistani Generals would yield to a bunch of mullahs and the bloodletting that I've been saying about Afghanistan after NATO leaves would be child's play in comparison to what the Pakistani Generals will do to stay in power.

I think you underestimate the power of incompetence. Keeping a smoldering religious insurgency throughout the country to remain politically dominant is not a sign of strength. Sooner or later you can't put it out even if you wanted to, this is not just FATA and Khyber areas but other areas as well.

The Jihadist Insurgency in Pakistan | Stratfor
On a tactical level, while the Pakistani army has a history of supporting insurgencies, it is ill-equipped to fight them. Even worse, despite the deployment of some 100,000 soldiers in the region, the bulk of security operations have involved paramilitary forces such as the Frontier Corps, which is mostly made up of locals who have little incentive to fight their brethren. Furthermore, Pakistan's intelligence capabilities already are compromised because of militant penetration of the agencies.

Religious Extremism destabilizing Pakistan | PK ARTICLES HUBNotice the diversity of locations.
Pakistan

Only in the month of May, around 300 persons were killed in the city. JI, however, would continue with its efforts in bringing the city back to its previous identity as the city of peace and harmony.

He said that the political parties in coalition government were responsible for crimes in the city. JI would play its role to help the people of the city to get rid of the extortionists and target killers.

While speaking on the occasion, Hafiz Naeem Ur Rehman said that a slogan was raised in the city of fifth nation and people were provoked to sell their TV and refrigerators and buy weapons instead. Those that had raised the slogan of rights had converted the city into the heap of explosives.

However, all those slogans had died of their logic consequence and a culture of dead bodies in sacks was introduced.

He said that JI was the only political party that had the potential to bring the revolution and would cause that happen one day. The Military dictators and the civil rulers had ruined the country and the people’s issues were set aside. It was the need of the hour that the people of the city in particular and people of the country in general should rise united and elect honest leadership so that the country and the countrymen should travel on the path of peace and prosperity.

Laiq Khan said that participation of large number of people in the JI gathering was a sign that the people had rejected the politics of guns.

He said that Pashto speaking nationals were killed in the city but the so-called representative of the Pashto speaking community, the Awami National Party (ANP) was silent over that huge manslaughter of Pashto speaking people.

Osama Bin Razi in his address said that JI was the voice of the people and it would be the JI that would make people rise united against the injustices and corruption.

Muhammad Younus Barai in his address said that the rulers had converted the country into a US colony and it would be the JI that would change the situation.

Jamal Afridi said that the future of the country could only be safe and secure under the Islamic revolution.

Haleem Baloch said that JI was the only political party that represented all communities of the country.

I am sure its more contained than the media touts, my feeling is the strain of commodity costs and overall economic disintegration globally will play a part in destabilizing Pakistan. Compared to Afghanistan which is warlord stable comparatively in Pakistan internal local power vies with national power and religion is more or less utilized by both.

[Officer of Engineers]

I think you underestimate the power of incompetence.

I know you are underestimating a 550,000 man army bent on genocide. Ask the Bangladeshis.

[cyppok]

I know you are underestimating a 550,000 man army bent on genocide. Ask the Bangladeshis.

The Afghans are armed. Mountain valleys with harsh terrain for mechanized vehicles. Lots of experience fighting the Russian, U.S., British, etc... superior forces.

You are underestimating the 180+ million people with quiet a few going religious fanatic, with a lot of them actually being in cities that have nothing to do with Afghanistan like Karachi and Lahore.

[Officer of Engineers]

Genghis and Tammerlane handled them pretty well.

[Tronic]

I know you are underestimating a 550,000 man army bent on genocide. Ask the Bangladeshis.

Sir, the Bangladeshis had the last laugh. I don't see why Afghanistan would be any different.


Edit: Maybe I'm misreading the direction of this discussion. Are we talking about the Pakistanis invading Afghanistan, or the Pakistan army fighting an internal conflict?

[Officer of Engineers]

It's the ANA invading Pakistan to support liberation movements.

[cataphract]

Something like this was tried by Afghanistan back in the early 1960s and the irregulars they supported got trounced by the pak army. The current insurgency in Pakistan stems from PA's unwillingness to smash it, not its inability.

[Firestorm]

Sir, the Bangladeshis had the last laugh. I don't see why Afghanistan would be any different.

They did, but not before more than a million had perished at Pakistani hands. And things would have ended very differently without Indian intervention. Now if India decides to take advantage of a war on Pakistan's western border and settle some scores, things might get interesting. But I just don't see that happening in the current climate and with the damocles' sword of nukes hanging above any Indo-Pak conflict. If the Afghans face the Pak army alone they will be routed.