US had tacit consent of Pakistan military for OBL raid, claims book

[Agnostic Muslim]

Never underestimate the power of denial.

As in 'denial about the complete lack of any evidence indicating Pakistani complicity in sheltering OBL', correct?

[Agnostic Muslim]

It's military land and even if we excuse the supposed lack of background checks; AQ didn't dig a hole to hide under, but built a mansion with multiple security walls, no internet connection, no telephone lines, burning their own garbage, and the Pak military thought this to be "normal" activity 800 yards from their main building?

1. A background check in Pakistan would have turned up the name of Arshad Khan, what would that have told anyone?
2. It was not a 'mansion', but a rather derelict residence, even by Pakistani standards.
3. Many people in Pakistan, who can afford to, go to great lengths to secure their homes and maintain their privacy, especially if they are religiously conservative, so no, nothing unusual there, even burning garbage since in a country where government services are often non-existent, people do tend to 'burn their own garbage' if they have the means to.
4. This was not GHQ but a military academy, and if you look at the google satellite map of the compound, there is significant civilian residential development in that area, so why be suspicious of one residence alone?

Are you kidding me?? And this is supposed to be an army under siege from, to quote you, "Indian, US and Afghan complicity in terrorist attacks in Pakistan"? I'd get suspicious, as Osama's neighbours too have aptly reported they were of the compound. And this is a military base we're talking about, of a military facing continuous attacks on its institutions. I'm sorry but its hard to swallow that the Pak military is that incompetent.

Again, it is not a military base, it is a training academy and is surrounded by civilian residences - take a look at the map below:

[Agnostic Muslim]

It is indeed ambiguous. However, Abbottabad is not Peshawar or Kurachi. This is a military cantonment established by the British. It is home to the many (especially military/ISI) powerful and elite of Pakistani society. I cannot imagine a failure of the ISI to closely vet anyone moving into this area, especially an unusual lot with no apparent military/government ties. Perhaps to understand this properly, one has to be familiar with the endemic Pakistani paranoia vis-a-vis India.

The comment above reflects a lack of understanding about Pakistan.

Abbottabad is no longer that significant of a city, or the first preference, for wealthy and/or influential Pakistanis to choose as a place of residence. Islamabad is easily first choice, and has the highest land values in the country, followed by the Defence Estates in Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi (Islamabad's older twin city).

The only thing Abbottabad is really known for now is the military academy.

[Agnostic Muslim]

Such a concentration of "Do you know who I am?" types would leave any CI officer without much means and energy to do the job properly.

Besides someone gave clearance to all those residents there, nothing to worry about.

The only clearance required would be for the purchaser/owner of the land, and at this point there is nothing to indicate that five years ago 'Arshad Khan' would have raised any suspicions.

[Agnostic Muslim]

Have already used those arguments and more in the related thread, then i hit a wall with the below :)

Firstly, if I were to say here that NZ has no jet fighter capability I would not be committing treason because it is a matter of public knowledge. It requires that I be revealing a secret.
Secondly, were I to announce that my neighbour down the road wears womens underwear that would not be treason, as it requires the secret be relevant to the state.
Thirdly, if I were to announce he was a known criminal hiding out I would be performing a community service, not committing treason.
It only becomes treason if it were a secret the state knew about and wished to keep secret for its own advantage and by revealing that secret damaged my countries interests.

By finding him guilty they have argued that OBL was a secret asset to the state, and by revealing that secret Afridi has damaged the state.

How do you argue against the above ?

None of the analogies above apply in this case - the treason charge is based on the fact that Afridi knowingly cooperated with a foreign intelligence agency in conducting espionage within Pakistan. Whatever rationale was given to Afridi by this foreign intelligence agency (Mickey Mouse escaped from Disney and we believe he joined Al Qaeda and is hiding in Pakistan) is irrelevant given that this individual had no way of knowing what the true purpose of the foreign intelligence agency was. That goal/ends don't determine the treason charge, the fact that he cooperated with a foreign intelligence agency without Pakistani government authorization and therefore potentially jeopardized the national security of Pakistan is what determines the treason charge. If this man is let off because of the 'ends' (killing a terrorist) the next time people could be recruited by using his example, and next time the 'ends' might compromise Pakistani national security.

No its different, the book is about unconfirmed accounts whereas here there is no doubt where OBL was found.

Again, he had to be hiding somewhere, Taliban leaders continue to be killed and captured in Afghanistan, does that mean NATO and the Afghans are complicit in the Taliban movement? Mullah FM claims he is in Afghanistan, does that mean the US/Afghans are supporting the TTP? Brahamdegh Bugti was sheltered in Kabul with official US and Afghan knowledge, according to the US's own diplomatic cables - well that certainly shows the US as being complicity in harboring a terrorist and perhaps supporting the terrorist movement in Balochistan.

PR matters when dealing with non-paks and the perceptions they have will determine the quality of your relations with them.

How to change public perceptions is a different issue than the one here, which is that there is no evidence that there was any Pakistani institutional complicity in hiding OBL.

Americans have the benefit of the doubt here.

I disagree - without any evidence whatsoever, claims of Pakistani complicity are nothing but conspiracy theories and paranoia in an attempt to find a scapegoat for the US's failures in Afghanistan.

[bigross86]

A question and an observation:

None of the analogies above apply in this case - the treason charge is based on the fact that Afridi knowingly cooperated with a foreign intelligence agency in conducting espionage within Pakistan. Whatever rationale was given to Afridi by this foreign intelligence agency (Mickey Mouse escaped from Disney and we believe he joined Al Qaeda and is hiding in Pakistan) is irrelevant given that this individual had no way of knowing what the true purpose of the foreign intelligence agency was. That goal/ends don't determine the treason charge, the fact that he cooperated with a foreign intelligence agency without Pakistani government authorization and therefore potentially jeopardized the national security of Pakistan is what determines the treason charge. If this man is let off because of the 'ends' (killing a terrorist) the next time people could be recruited by using his example, and next time the 'ends' might compromise Pakistani national security.

1)From what I understand, he was charged with providing aid and support to militants of the Lashkar-e-Islam, not for helping the CIA. Now, why was he charged with support for the Lashkar-e-Islam when they themselves said that if they ever saw him they would kill him?

Again, it is not a military base, it is a training academy and is surrounded by civilian residences - take a look at the map below:

2)If you believe that your statement that "it is not a military base, it is a training academy" in any way excuses their poor response time, you are mistaken, sir. That, and/or have little to no military experience. Throughout every single stage of my military service, through basic and advanced training as well as actually being in a combat unit in the Armored Corps we had weekly "wake them up in the middle of the night" drills to either attack an "intruder" on the base or to grab our gear and run to our tanks, sometimes up to 1km away from our barracks. If 30 soldiers who have been in the army for a little over 4 months can get a full tank company up and running in combat formation within the required under-7 minutes, I guarantee you that Pakistan's largest training academy for the Officer Corps can get off a response in a similar amount of time. Unless they didn't want to, that is.

[Doktor]

Ben,

1) To my understanding the charges have not been pressed yet.
2) The base/academy was not under attack.

[Agnostic Muslim]

A question and an observation:

1)From what I understand, he was charged with providing aid and support to militants of the Lashkar-e-Islam, not for helping the CIA. Now, why was he charged with support for the Lashkar-e-Islam when they themselves said that if they ever saw him they would kill him?

He is being used as a bargaining chip - the current charges allow some leeway to the government down the road. A formal treason charge and conviction (which would be warranted in this case and easy to establish given the official statements by US government and military officials regarding his cooperation) seals his fate.

[bigross86]

Ben,

1) To my understanding the charges have not been pressed yet.

I mean, if you can't trust Al-Jazeera... He was sentenced in May 2012 to 33 years in prison

2) The base/academy was not under attack.

Irrelevant. When I was in basic training forces from our base were alerted due to a possible border crossing from Egypt into Israel. We were 3km away and had tanks rolling in under 10 minutes for what turned out to be a false alarm (some hikers). People are shooting for close to 40 minutes less than a mile away from the academy and no one does anything, aside from F-16's showing up after the US forces already leave the compound? Dunno about you, someone started a 40 minute long firefight less than a mile away from our OCS, or ANY of our military bases, there will be a quick response.

[Officer of Engineers]

Irrelevant. When I was in basic training forces from our base were alerted due to a possible border crossing from Egypt into Israel. We were 3km away and had tanks rolling in under 10 minutes for what turned out to be a false alarm (some hikers). People are shooting for close to 40 minutes less than a mile away from the academy and no one does anything, aside from F-16's showing up after the US forces already leave the compound? Dunno about you, someone started a 40 minute long firefight less than a mile away from our OCS, or ANY of our military bases, there will be a quick response.

Academy security, aka the cops, will be the primary response. I would not trust a bunch of kids with live ammo lead by a cadet captain.

[bigross86]

This may be true, but that doesn't prevent them from launching some sort of response, even by Academy Security. I don't know how it works in the Pakistani Army, but in the IDF every base provides its own security and always has a team in uniform and full gear 24 hours a day to respond for whatever purpose.

Even if you don't trust them, a bunch of kids led by a cadet captain is still a response. Besides, what's to prevent them from forming a squad of experienced officers to mount a response? Surely at least those officers training the cadets have some experience. Abbottabad has 3 battalions. Surely out of 12 companies they can scrape up 25 people with combat experience, be they cadets or officers and at least send out a patrol?

Either way you look at it, the lack of response is fishy, especially from Pakistan's equivalent of West Point and Sandhurst. Do you think that if someone started a 40 minute firefight a mile away from West Point the folks there would sit and do nothing?

[Mihais]

If there is a firefight half a mile from my ''place'' I'd say in my mind that those chaps from SWAT really blew it.You don't run amok with guns blazing unless you're under direct attack or you're ordered to.And that order better be legal and your CO has authority over everything in uniform in the area,be it soldiers,cops,gendarmes,firemen and whatever else there is.Israel is different because you have a different legal base and different context.In this case we're talking an academy far away from any threat.
and no,you don't find a platoon of experienced officers and NCO's,because at 1a.m they're asleep,at home.They need to be assembled,and when they come they lead their respective units.Individually they may have experience,but they're not a platoon.

That being said,the academy is an important objective and so are the retired generals.Whoever is responsible for CI work either was incompetent or was ordered not to notice that mansion nor to write any report about it.The academy may not attack anyone in the neighborhood,but terrorists may try to hit the academy.Indian agents may sneak and try to kidnap a former general for whatever purpose,etc... The idea is that the local CI simply has to know everything about everybody.It's basic police work.I agree that CI or the police may not know everything about a slum in Karachi or the back alleys in Peshawar.But this is not a similar situation.

[Agnostic Muslim]

Irrelevant. When I was in basic training forces from our base were alerted due to a possible border crossing from Egypt into Israel. We were 3km away and had tanks rolling in under 10 minutes for what turned out to be a false alarm (some hikers). People are shooting for close to 40 minutes less than a mile away from the academy and no one does anything, aside from F-16's showing up after the US forces already leave the compound? Dunno about you, someone started a 40 minute long firefight less than a mile away from our OCS, or ANY of our military bases, there will be a quick response.

1. Suppressors?
2. Most, if not all, of the firefight inside the compound, limiting sound
3. Local residents pacified with native language speaking team member warning everyone to stay inside and that a 'security operation was being conducted' - this would play into any potential delay of the residents contacting local cops
4. Pakistani cops are notorious for their inefficiency and corruption, and would likely be the first point of contact by any residents that were suspicious - so that alone would be a huge bottleneck in terms of response time from local law enforcement.

[Agnostic Muslim]

If there is a firefight half a mile from my ''place'' I'd say in my mind that those chaps from SWAT really blew it.You don't run amok with guns blazing unless you're under direct attack or you're ordered to.And that order better be legal and your CO has authority over everything in uniform in the area,be it soldiers,cops,gendarmes,firemen and whatever else there is.Israel is different because you have a different legal base and different context.In this case we're talking an academy far away from any threat.
and no,you don't find a platoon of experienced officers and NCO's,because at 1a.m they're asleep,at home.They need to be assembled,and when they come they lead their respective units.Individually they may have experience,but they're not a platoon.

That being said,the academy is an important objective and so are the retired generals.Whoever is responsible for CI work either was incompetent or was ordered not to notice that mansion nor to write any report about it.The academy may not attack anyone in the neighborhood,but terrorists may try to hit the academy.Indian agents may sneak and try to kidnap a former general for whatever purpose,etc... The idea is that the local CI simply has to know everything about everybody.It's basic police work.I agree that CI or the police may not know everything about a slum in Karachi or the back alleys in Peshawar.But this is not a similar situation.

'Retired Generals' usually don't live in shabby neighborhoods like these.

The Army's retirement program for senior officers usually results in land allotments in the housing estates developed by the DHA (Defence Housing Authority), and most (and largest/most opulent) of those, as I mentioned before, are in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Karachi and Lahore.

[Mihais]

Good for the generals.It doesn't make CI less responsible.