Isareli Nuclear Weapons: Existence & Capability

[bigross86]

Then tell Bibi not to brashly talk war because that is what Bibi is doing and is leading Israel into this kind of trap. What Bibi is doing is irresponsible. He's poking the bear.

What does this have to do with anything? This has been Israel SOP since (most likely) before the 1973 Yom Kippur War. I promise you, regardless of what Netanyahu says, if the neighboring countries feel that they can exploit a situation and bring about a successful attack against Israel, they will.

[zraver]

S-2, found related comments Google the Samson Option. There is some discussion by otherwise well qualified people that the essence of the strategy is disproportionate response.

[Officer of Engineers]

Much of the prep work is involved in getting the sat up to the right location in space without hitting anything else. The rocket/missile is ready to go a lot sooner.

Sat launches don't need national command authority nor targeting procedures, let alone warhead mating to delivery vehicles, all done via wartime conditions ... much also means close scrutiny both both American and Russian intelligence and in the case of Russian intelligence, open to a Russian first strike.

China got them, why not Israel?

This goes against your argument. The Chinese had the W88 for years and despite all their attempts and years of testing, could not replicate a similar warhead. You're asking us to believe that Israel could do without testing what the Chinese could not with testing.

But be that as it may, the Chinese did not get everything they needed, otherwise, they would had a W88 warhead.

So no, I do not believe our security is that lax.

[S2]

OoE Reply

Colonel,

My understanding is that you question the viability of a Israeli nuclear weapons program...if it even at all exists. To that end, you question possession of both functional devices and means of delivery aside from aircraft.

Do I correctly understand?

[Officer of Engineers]

I question the existence of Israeli H-bombs and nuclear warhead mated missiles.

[zraver]

Sat launches don't need national command authority nor targeting procedures, let alone warhead mating to delivery vehicles, all done via wartime conditions ... much also means close scrutiny both both American and Russian intelligence and in the case of Russian intelligence, open to a Russian first strike.

I assume Israel keeps the warheads mounted like we do.

This goes against your argument. The Chinese had the W88 for years and despite all their attempts and years of testing, could not replicate a similar warhead. You're asking us to believe that Israel could do without testing what the Chinese could not with testing.

Israel has had the chance for access for longer as well as easier access to all of the supporting industries from computers to precision machining.

But be that as it may, the Chinese did not get everything they needed, otherwise, they would had a W88 warhead.

But did they get everything they wanted?

So no, I do not believe our security is that lax.

Too many breaches, for me to have such confidence.

[S2]

OoE Reply

"I question the existence of Israeli H-bombs and nuclear warhead mated missiles."

Thank you, sir. H-Bombs are not fission weapons. Do you believe they possess fission weapons? If so, can fission weapons be successfully engineered to accomodate mating with SLCMs and Jericho I & II.

Secondly, questioning the existence of these weapons is an issue separate from the Israeli capacity to professionally administer, secure and execute such a program's mission. Were the Israelis to, in your estimation, possess nuclear weapons would you consider yourself competent to judge the professionalism of their administration of such a program (to include storage, security, assembly and C3I/Targeting)?

[Officer of Engineers]

Thank you, sir. H-Bombs are not fission weapons.

I have no doubt that they are also working on thermonukes but I certainly do doubt that they have achieved one.

Do you believe they possess fission weapons? If so, can fission weapons be successfully engineered to accomodate mating with SLCMs and Jericho I & II.

The history of all nuclear weapons powers at this point is that they need testing to minaturize. The closest example are the Pakistanis. In 1998, they found out that their small designs didn't work. Don't need to tell you what happened to the North Korean designs.

Secondly, questioning the existence of these weapons is an issue separate from the Israeli capacity to professionally administer, secure and execute such a program's mission. Were the Israelis to, in your estimation, possess nuclear weapons would you consider yourself competent to judge the professionalism of their administration of such a program (to include storage, security, assembly and C3I/Targeting)?

I cannot tell you the quality of their training mission but I can tell you the evidence of the quantity of their training missions. None.

[Officer of Engineers]

I assume Israel keeps the warheads mounted like we do.

No evidence of that and no unit dedicated to a nuclear role (and they don't dare to dedicate one).

Israel has had the chance for access for longer as well as easier access to all of the supporting industries from computers to precision machining.

Pure speculation. At this point, I will state that there is absolutely no evidence that the US nor France nor any of the N5 had violated the NPT clandestine, incompetently, obliquely, or any other way. China might be the only exception but that was before her signature to the NPT.

Until there is evidence, I will not adhere that Israel stole her arsenal from the US.

But did they get everything they wanted?

They got everything they can. They shrink their warheads small enough to fit into the DF-31 but not small enough to MIRV the DF-31.

Too many breaches, for me to have such confidence.

And I have no confidence that Israel stole everything she needed to build an arsenal without testing.

[S2]

OoE Reply

To clarify, you believe it impossible to build and miniaturize a fission warhead without a fully-assembled test- even allowing fo access to supercomputer modeling?

[USSWisconsin]

The Point of No Return - Magazine - The Atlantic

Nuclear Weapons - Israel

It is quite difficult to develop gas fusion boosting technology like that used in US weapons and weapons tests are probably essential. Although radiation implosion weapons could be developed without testing, they would tend to be large and heavy and would perhaps be incompatible with Israel's available delivery systems. It is quite possible then that a Sloika/Alarm Clock type system has been developed using lithium-6 deuteride fuel surrounding the plutonium core (in fact a weapon mock-up photographed by Vanunu appears to be this type of weapon). Tritium could be used to spike the fusion fuel and boost the yield, just as the Soviets did with the 400 Kt "Joe-4".

Bomb components made of plutonium, lithium-6 deuteride, and beryllium are fabricated in level 5 of Machon 2. They are transported by convoys of unmarked cars to the warhead assembly facility, operated by Rafael north of Haifa.

Israel's Nuclear Weapons Program

Many people believe Israel has had thermonuclear weapons since the 1980's. I've seen pictures in a newspaper (years ago) of a boosted fission primary (it was a great breach of security to publish it and caused quite a stir) - a thermonuclear weapon seems quite possible - though this may be of an older and more limited design.

[Officer of Engineers]

To clarify, you believe it impossible to build and miniaturize a fission warhead without a fully-assembled test- even allowing fo access to supercomputer modeling?

Where would they get access to the data to form such a computer model?

Many people believe Israel has had thermonuclear weapons since the 1980's. I've seen pictures in a newspaper (years ago) of a boosted fission primary (it was a great breach of security to publish it and caused quite a stir) - a thermonuclear weapon seems quite possible - though this may be of an older and more limited design.

I've seen that picture too. Like most at the time, I took it on faith that Israel had what everyone said they had. Then came the Indian and Pakistani tests which did not live up to claims. Then came the claims and counterclaims of manipulated data and false and prejudiced science ... only to learn that the outside world was correct about the Indian and Pakistani tests, especially the Indian thermonuke.

To date, there has been not one, not one nuclear power who got the thermonuke right on the first series of tries. Not a single one. And India had better computers and more science to work upon than Israel did.

There is only one way for Israel to acquire an operational arsenal as described in the popular texts and one I refused to subscribe to and one most of the world believes and one put forth by two Assistant Secretaries of Energy - that the US gave a helping hand to the Israeli nuclear arsenal. Even theft could not explain the size and sophistication of the popular arsenal. I cannot and will not believe the US violated the NPT.

So what's the other explanation? The popular arsenal is wrong. What evidence is there to support the existence of such an arsenal? None.

I don't doubt Israel is working on them up to and including devices for zero yield testing but so did India, Pakistan, and North Korea.

[JAD_333]

Vanunu was denied parole at a hearing in May 1998.[47] Five years later, parole was again refused. At this parole hearing, Vanunu's lawyer Avigdor Feldman maintained that his client had no more secrets and should be freed. But the prosecution argued that the imminent war with Iraq would preclude his release. After the hearing, Feldman said, "The prosecutor said that if Vanunu were released, the Americans would probably leave Iraq and go after Israel and Israel's nuclear weapons - which I found extremely ridiculous."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mordechai_Vanunu

This is one of the many stranger-than-fiction excerpts from a Wiki biography of Mordechai Vanunu, a former Israeli nuclear technician who "revealed details of Israel's nuclear weapons program to the British press in 1986". Abducted from Italy in 1986 by Mossad, after passing along photos and details of Israel's nuclear program to the press, he spent 18 years in prison. Now out of prison, he is restricted to Israel and constantly monitored by Israeli security agencies.

This story reads like a thriller. While it doesn't offer much new in the way of information on Israel's nuclear program, incredible to me was that Israel had already enriched enough material by the 1980s to build 100 nukes.

[S2]

OoE Reply

"Where would they get access to the data to form such a computer model?"

Israeli nuclear physicists and other researchers under Israel's employ? Generating the data seems entirely within Israel's intellectual capacity. Finding the supercomputer and surreptitiously contracting the time might have been more problematic. However, I'm aware of at least one supercomputer now, I believe, at Ben-Gurion University that originally was at the Inter-University Computing Center located at Tel Aviv University. I'd doubt the Israeli MoD had difficulties contracting its use. Whether adequate to the task might be another matter. It also appears the U.S. may have facilitated the export of a second computer after reclassiflying the definition for these systems. It's purported intent was cypto-analysis. It's installation was made at an Israeli defense facility to which there is no U.S. access-

Cray Supercomputer-Wisconsin Project

Then there was the interesting comment made by Robert Gates before his Sec'y Of Defense Senate Confirmation Hearings in 2006. When asked about Iran's motivations for possibly seeking a nuclear weapon Gates replied,

"...They are surrounded by powers with nuclear weapons - Pakistan to their east, the Russians to the north, the Israelis to the west and us in the Persian Gulf..."

Incoming U.S. Defense Secretary Tells Senate Panel Israel Has Nuclear Weapons-Haaretz Dec. 7, 2006

Coming from a former Director of Central Intelligence and, moreover, a man noted for his extreme care this was a profound admission...and never retracted, qualified nor elaborated.

[Officer of Engineers]

Steve,

Do you know why there was a rush by the N5 just before the implementation of the CTBT? To collect the data needed to computer model their own inventories. In short, the data that we're talking about cannot be gleamed from mathematical models nor collected from afar but actually collected on site. And one of the reason why India for so long can say to the world that our data was wrong because we were not on site (turn out that our data was right)

For Israel to have such a computer model would actually mean that they have access to class protected data, in this case either American or French. However, in either case, it would mean a violation of the NPT and I just cannot accept that.

Even still, Pakistan had access to Chinese data and they still fucked up.