Pakistan's unwillingness to recognize all of the taliban as a common threat to regional stability has led to the inevitable. For the last year Islamabad has been shrill in their complaints of afghan sanctuary and NATO unwillingness to take the war against the Pakistani taliban (TTP). NATO, with their hands full of other matters (to include withdrawal) has largely turned a deaf ear to these complaints. Needless to say, Pakistan's own intransigence regarding the long-standing complaints of sanctuary for the afghan taliban and Haqqani network haven't helped generate sympathy for Islamabad's plight.
So? What to expect down the road? Multi-level sectarian, tribal and ethnic combat within both Afghanistan and Pakistan seems likely. Worse, a low to mid-intensity conflict emerging between Afghanistan and Pakistan that could range from proxy warfare to elements of both nat'l armies employed by both sides. Here Robert Haddick expresses his prognosis. It differs little from mine.
I've long said we can expect civil war to emerge in Afghanistan. Our departure only ends the conflict for us. OTOH, Haddick suggests (and I've suspected the same) that the Afghan government may reach out to the TTP and attempt to liaison/support their war as a counter-balance to Islamabad. This, in addition to the ANA conducting the cross-border raids that we wouldn't undergo, makes a standoff between Afghanistan and Pakistan likely.
Would America support such an Afghan nat'l policy? Unlikely, as Haddick suggests, Obama ever envisioned subsidizing a war on Pakistan from Kabul when projecting our aid extending through 2024. OTOH, India? Supporting such may be firmly in their interests should it have the blessing of the Afghan nat'l government. Read more here-
The Next Afghan War-Haddick Foreign Policy/SWJ
So? What to expect down the road? Multi-level sectarian, tribal and ethnic combat within both Afghanistan and Pakistan seems likely. Worse, a low to mid-intensity conflict emerging between Afghanistan and Pakistan that could range from proxy warfare to elements of both nat'l armies employed by both sides. Here Robert Haddick expresses his prognosis. It differs little from mine.
I've long said we can expect civil war to emerge in Afghanistan. Our departure only ends the conflict for us. OTOH, Haddick suggests (and I've suspected the same) that the Afghan government may reach out to the TTP and attempt to liaison/support their war as a counter-balance to Islamabad. This, in addition to the ANA conducting the cross-border raids that we wouldn't undergo, makes a standoff between Afghanistan and Pakistan likely.
Would America support such an Afghan nat'l policy? Unlikely, as Haddick suggests, Obama ever envisioned subsidizing a war on Pakistan from Kabul when projecting our aid extending through 2024. OTOH, India? Supporting such may be firmly in their interests should it have the blessing of the Afghan nat'l government. Read more here-
The Next Afghan War-Haddick Foreign Policy/SWJ
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