Will Israel Attack Iran in 2012?

[Zinja]

Desert One looks safe compared to that. Obama would go from being a shoe in to actually becoming Carter v2.0.

Special ops have gone in before, do what the job is, and fly out home, what would be so new this time?

[Zinja]

....and if Israel does go at this on her own, we better not **** ** or we'll be in deep shit

But do you have a choice?

[Zinja]

The other bit i don't understand is everybody including, it seems, Israel security advisers, seem to hold the opinion that striking Iran would spark a regional war, but how? Hizbollah? Hamas? Israel has fought Hizbollah and Hamas before how come there was no regional contegion? Honestly, which of the Muslim world or Arab world would put their necks on the line for Iran? Iran right now is just about what Iraq was when it invaded Kuwait, the Arab world is not so nuts about Iran at the moment. Am i missing something here?

[troung]

Special ops have gone in before, do what the job is, and fly out home, what would be so new this time?

Flying deep into Iran, landing at a heavily defended site, killing and blowing everything up, all without a single thing going wrong... :whome:

[Zinja]

Flying deep into Iran, landing at a heavily defended site, killing and blowing everything up, all without a single thing going wrong...

Which is easier, to attack an Iranian air base or a nuclear site installation?

[Parihaka]

The other bit i don't understand is everybody including, it seems, Israel security advisers, seem to hold the opinion that striking Iran would spark a regional war, but how? Hizbollah? Hamas? Israel has fought Hizbollah and Hamas before how come there was no regional contegion? Honestly, which of the Muslim world or Arab world would put their necks on the line for Iran? Iran right now is just about what Iraq was when it invaded Kuwait, the Arab world is not so nuts about Iran at the moment. Am i missing something here?

The key to the middle east is of course oil. Iran's army would remain essentially intact, as would the revolutionary guard, as would their irregular forces they used to quell the recent protests. By attacking Saudi Arabia, Kuwait Iraq etc, all seen by Iran as western stooges, they would achieve the same ends as closing the Straits of Hormuz. Not by outright conventional battle but by bombings in cites and destruction of oil related facilities and attacks on those countries leaders. Since no one has the stomach for an actual invasion of Iran, this campaign could continue indefinitely.
A sort of non-nuclear MAD policy.

[troung]

Which is easier, to attack an Iranian air base or a nuclear site installation?

A helicopter went down during the Bin Laden raid with no one shooting back - the US would not launch a series of SF raids to destroy these multiple sites especially in an election year.

[Chunder]

If Israel does go at it alone, we'd better hope that we succeed beyond what everyone expected. If we go at this and fuck this up, we'll be in a world of hurt, both physically and politically

My thinking in regards to Israel going it alone has changed in the past month.
Casting aside prejudice as to whether or not they actually can conduct military action.
Casting aside thoughts on possible retaliations against Israel.

The play is this isn't it not.
Israel strikes. Regardless of success or not - it emboldens or entrenches Iranian desire to produce a bomb. Will, or won't the U.S be prepared to sit by and let increased development happen or will it be prodded into war?

[Double Edge]

The play is this isn't it not.
Israel strikes. Regardless of success or not - it emboldens or entrenches Iranian desire to produce a bomb.

Agree

Can an Attack Deny Iran the Bomb? | Huffington Post | May 11 2010
Attacking Iran: Lessons from the Iran-Iraq War | Belfer Center | Dec 2011

[snapper]

"Iran's supreme leader vows to confront 'cancerous tumour' of Israel
Iran's supreme leader vowed to confront and defeat the "cancerous tumour" of Israel on Friday as international concern grew of a pre-emptive Israeli strike on the Islamic regime's nuclear installations as early as this April."

"From now on, in any place, if any nation or any group confronts the Zionist regime, we will endorse and we will help. We have no fear expressing this," said the ayatollah, speaking to mark the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution against the Shah.

Iran's supreme leader vows to confront 'cancerous tumour' of Israel - Telegraph

[Dreadnought]

With comments like this who could possibly blame them.....

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) – Iran's supreme leader has pledged to aid any nation or group that challenges Israel and said any military strikes over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program would damage U.S. interests in the Middle East "10 times over."

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei again threatened Israel and warned nations against attacking his country's nuclear facilities.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei again threatened Israel and warned nations against attacking his country's nuclear facilities.

The comments by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, broadcast nationally on Friday, staked out a hard line in apparent replies to suggestions that military strikes are an increasing possibility if sanctions fail to rein in the Islamic Republic's nuclear program.

It also may signal that Tehran's proxy forces — led by Lebanon's Islamic militant group Hezbollah — could be given the green light to revive attacks on Israel as the showdown between the archfoes intensifies.

The West and its allies fear Iran could use its uranium enrichment labs — which make nuclear fuel — to eventually produce weapons-grade material. Iran insists it only seeks reactors for energy and medical research.

Israel has so far publicly backed the efforts by the U.S. and European Union for tougher sanctions that target Iran's crucial oil exports. But Israeli leaders have urged even harsher measures and warn that military action remains a clear option despite Western appeals to allow time for the economic pressures and isolation to bear down on Iran.

Although Israel has raised the strongest hints over a military campaign, Khamenei reserved some of his strongest comments for Israel's key U.S. ally.

"A war itself will damage the U.S. 10 times over" in the region, said Khamenei.

Khamenei claimed Iran, however, could only emerge stronger. "Iran will not withdraw. Then what happens?" asked Khamenei. "In conclusion, the West's hegemony and threats will be discredited" in the Middle East. "The hegemony of Iran will be promoted. In fact, this will be in our service."

On Thursday, Israel's defense minister, Ehud Barak, suggested the world is increasingly ready to consider a military strike if sanctions fail. The head of the country's strategic affairs ministry, Vice Premier Moshe Yaalon, also suggested Iran's main military installations are still vulnerable to airstrikes — even as Iran starts up a new uranium enrichment facility deep in a mountainside bunker south of Tehran.

Yaalon's comments appear to reinforce earlier suggestions by other Israel officials that the window for a possible attack is closing and Israel would need to strike by summer to inflict significant setbacks on Iran's nuclear facilities. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity under standing guidelines.

At Ramstein Air Base in Germany, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said sanctions remain the best approach to pressure Iran. But he told U.S. airmen Friday that Washington keeps "all options on the table and would be prepared to respond if we have to."

Khamenei answered by repeating Iran's declarations that it will never roll back its nuclear program, which he had earlier said was now part of the country's "identity" and a cornerstone of its technological endeavors. On Friday, Iran said it successfully sent a small satellite into orbit in the third such launch in recent years, state media reported.

"From now on, in any place, if any nation or any group confronts the Zionist regime, we will endorse and we will help. We have no fear expressing this," said Khamenei, using the phrase widely used by Iran's leader to describe Israel.

Khamenei affirmed that Iran had assisted groups such as Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas — a well-known policy rarely stated explicitly by Iranian leaders.

"We have intervened in anti-Israel matters, and it brought victory," he said, citing the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel and nearly three weeks of conflict in the Gaza Strip that began with an incursion by Israel in December 2008.

The Gaza battles ended in a cease-fire, with Israel claiming to have inflicted heavy damage on the militant organization. The war in Lebanon ended with a U.N.-brokered truce that sent thousands of Lebanese troops and international peacekeepers into southern Lebanon to prevent another outbreak.

Khamenei called Israel a "cancerous tumor that should be cut and will be cut" — a remark he has made previously.

In Jerusalem, an Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman said he wasn't surprised by Khamenei's remarks. "It's the same kind of hate speech that we've been seeing from Iran for many years now," Yigal Palmor said.

Half of Khamenei's nearly two-hour speech was delivered in Arabic in a clear nod to the Arab world. Iran has applauded the victory of Islamist groups in elections that followed the toppling of authoritarian regimes in Egypt and Tunisia.

The Supreme Leader said the Islamist electoral victories will "weaken and isolate" Israel and represented the failure of U.S. policies. But the uprisings also have threatened Iran's most important Arab ally, Syrian leader Bashar Assad.

Another potential military flashpoint is the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. Iran has threatened to close the strategic waterway in response to U.S. and EU sanctions targeting the country's oil exports, but it has so far taken no steps to disrupt oil tanker traffic. The powerful Revolutionary Guard said it plans naval maneuvers near the strait this month.

Khamenei also warned that Tehran would reveal a letter that it claims President Barack Obama sent the Iranian leadership in an attempt to end the nuclear impasse. The White House has denied that such a letter exists.

An Iranian lawmaker in January claimed that Obama had asked for direct talks with Iran in a secret letter, which also warned Tehran against closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian leader warns U.S., Israel against strikes

A few things I get from this.

a) Assahola continues to make this threat against Israel. IMO, Any strikes Israel makes should in my mind target the mouth first and foremost. Find him and shove a guided missle down his throat and make sure you get him first and foremost.

b) IMO, I dont care if Obama asked for direct dialogue via letter. If at worst it will show that atleast they tried. If it fails and Iran gets attacked atleast Obama can state he tried so turning out this letter wont mean much and if anything works towards Obama's advantage.

c) The Straits is a battle that Iran may be forced into to save face at home and IMO will no doubt loose but something tells me if there is a battle over the Straits the USN is not going to settle for just the Straits. Maybe assaholla should consider that as well before making such threats.

Its not like the USN has not amassed enough firepower to take it and more if Obama called them to action. Or if prevoked.

[Tanker]

You know what? I'm tired of bullcrap threads like this. I'm tired of the whole Iran vs. The World crap. Someone bomb the crap out of the nuke facilities so that we can watch Iran gear up its 60 year old tank force, its 50 year old Air Force, it's speed boat navy, and it's BAAAZILLION Missles so we can stop having to read these stupid "what ifs" (Iran vs. The World) on the forums and listening to their "we can "pwn the world" because we have a BAAAZILLION missiles pointed at Israel.

[Officer of Engineers]

You know what? I'm tired of bullcrap threads like this. I'm tired of the whole Iran vs. The World crap. Someone bomb the crap out of the nuke facilities so that we can watch Iran gear up its 60 year old tank force, its 50 year old Air Force, it's speed boat navy, and it's BAAAZILLION Missles so we can top having to read these stupid "what ifs" on the forums and listening to their "we can "pwn the world" because we have a BAAAZILLION missiles pointed at Israel.

Yeah but you don't have $200mil needed to run for President.

[USSWisconsin]

I'm hiding in my basement for fear of the mighty Iran - oh my - oh no - they may defeat us all and force us into Islam - our doom is sealed - we have pissed of the mighty Iran!

[Zinja]

The key to the middle east is of course oil. Iran's army would remain essentially intact, as would the revolutionary guard, as would their irregular forces they used to quell the recent protests. By attacking Saudi Arabia, Kuwait Iraq etc, all seen by Iran as western stooges, they would achieve the same ends as closing the Straits of Hormuz. Not by outright conventional battle but by bombings in cites and destruction of oil related facilities and attacks on those countries leaders. Since no one has the stomach for an actual invasion of Iran, this campaign could continue indefinitely.
A sort of non-nuclear MAD policy.

Well, in that instance all that i see is total destruction of Iran at the hands of its neighbours. It will be a one sided war that can only see everyone in the region jumping in for the piece of the fun. To me its more like Iran on fire than the region on fire, which is exactly my point.