Iranians Backed Attempt to Assassinate Saudi Ambassador on US soil

[Mihais]

Next time they should give any of us here the 100k and point the target.Most will certainly get much closer to the target and some might even kill it.

I'm not saying there could not be a genuine Iranian plot.But the way it was done is stupid.Rogue or not,you don't get in the Quds for being stupid.Secondly,we're in the intel bussiness here,where nothing is what it seems and everybody plays his own games.FBI might think they found a plot.
But false flags are as common as air in this line of work.What we know for sure is that FBI said they found it,that it's being made a big public hoopla for unclear (yet)purposes and that doesn't fit the profile of any half decent secret organization.

[JAD_333]

Good to see the skeptical comments.

My first reaction when i heard this was, is it time for another round of sanctions ?

The plot sounded really absurd.

It is all well and good that we are skeptical. However, in the end the facts will determine the truth of the matter regardless of how absurd it may seem.

Iran's reaction bears scrutiny. As usual they have brought Israel into the picture by calling the charge an Israeli-US plot.

A senior Iranian official denied the charge in a statement that is in itself untrue, considering Iran was implicated in killing an Iranian critic in his home in the US and has been known to play both sides of the fence in Afghanistan.

"The Islamic Republic never seeks to get involved in this kind of behavior and, despite 32 years of pressure brought to bear on Iran, the country has always acted and reacted ethically," he said.

The skeptics who hold that this operation was uncharacteristic of Iran cite the high professionalism of the Quds, who they say would never mount an operation using a loud-mouthed Iranian US citizen. Why not? Are they immune to stupidity? No country is 100% perfect in carrying out operations. The usually proficient Israelis get caught by a hotel surveillance camera. The US has its Fast and Furious and so on.

Like Sgt. Joe Friday says, "just give me the facts,ma'am."

[Mihais]

I don't recall Israel admitting the killing.At this stage Israeli denials is as good as Iranian denial,sympathies aside.Yes,blunders happen.But in the Israeli case it was underestimation of their opponents in an otherwise succesfull operation.Here the planning from the very root is flawed.
As for the facts,I'm afraid we won't get to them anytime soon.We won't get the US side of the story in full and we certainly won't get the Iranian side(or whoever is on the other side).

[NUS]

Can someone tell me, why would Iran government make this plot? Why this ambassador is so important, to kill it with a bomb in world's most protected capital city? What's the point?

[Officer of Engineers]

Can someone tell me, why would Iran government make this plot? Why this ambassador is so important, to kill it with a bomb in world's most protected capital city? What's the point?

You are assuming the Iranians were expecting to get caught.

[NUS]

You are assuming the Iranians were expecting to get caught.

I'm assuming rational reasons for actions. Hate, for example, is a rational reason in this case.

What is so important about this murder? Or do Iranians conduct murders around the world for no reason at all?

[Zinja]

100 grand is a drop in a bucket. The only thing that tells us is that if there was such a plot it's working on a damn small budget.

I don't know how much an average Germany makes, but for any average folk 100grand is a whole lot of money is you are to its indeed a private op. It only becomes a drop in the bucket when it is in the context of government coffers.

[Zinja]

You are assuming the Iranians were expecting to get caught.

But wouldn't they be worried about what happened to the Taliban the last time they tried high profile mischief in the US?

[Mihais]

That'll be the least of my worries if I were them.;) First,it's not an American target.Second,I don't think you're in the mood for war.Third,even if you are,the support will be even less than it was in Iraq and the opposition much stronger.

[Zinja]

Something is amiss here though. Knowing the loud mouths that the Iranians are and how they trumpet supposed US's lies, wouldn't this be a gift on a silver plate with a golden spoon? The US has said they have recorded conversations, wouldn't it be easier for Iran to just say bring the evidence to the UN - Adlai style?

Secondly, the UK so far has come out openly in support of the US, why would they do that if there was no real evidence especially after the Iraq debacle?

[Zinja]

That'll be the least of my worries if I were them.;) First,it's not an American target.Second,I don't think you're in the mood for war.Third,even if you are,the support will be even less than it was in Iraq and the opposition much stronger.

To think that you can count on 'emotions' to protect you when you poke a full belly lion is very naive. The US entered WWII with a rock bottom economy and a public and politician that wanted nothing to do with the 'European war'.

Besides, the military is the least of worries for Iran than a galvanised and rejuvenated international effort led by the US again.

[Mihais]

You seem to think a presumed ATTEMPT to kill a Saudi ambassador on US soil is a good enough reason to go to war.
Also,IIRC you accuse them of mischief yet you ask them to bring evidence wrt their innocence.

Rejuvenated effort led by US and followed by whom?

Strange that during Bush administration,otherwise not shy in matters involving war and regime change,Quds engaged Coalition troops in Iraq heads on,besides supplying Sadr et co. If i ever meet a Saudi ambassador I ought to bow before him.Even trying to harm one is more important than actually killing US and Allied troops.

[Zinja]

You seem to think a presumed ATTEMPT to kill a Saudi ambassador on US soil is a good enough reason to go to war.

Its a good enough reason for the US to pick its choice of response it deems fit for the provocation. What the pick is is up to the USA and not Iran.

Also,IIRC you accuse them of mischief yet....

Who are 'them'? I accused the Taliban of mischief not Iran. My statement on Iran was predicated on the 'if' Iran committed the alleged offense, then yes its a mischief.

... yet you ask them to bring evidence wrt their innocence.

Again read carefully, I said Iran should challenge THE US to bring the evidence NOT IRAN.

Rejuvenated effort led by US and followed by whom?

By every democracy that will see the evidence for what it is.

[Zinja]

Strange that during Bush administration,otherwise not shy in matters involving war and regime change,Quds engaged Coalition troops in Iraq heads on,besides supplying Sadr et co.

The US has international obligations over which it has no choice but to honour as it is bound by its signature. Diplomats on US soil are US protectorates by international law. Country to country fights and disagreements are up to the nation to choose the best course of action. Like any sovereign nation the US will choose for itself the best course of action to deal with Iran on such matters.

If i ever meet a Saudi ambassador I ought to bow before him.

Go ahead, no one is stopping you.

[Double Edge]

It is all well and good that we are skeptical. However, in the end the facts will determine the truth of the matter regardless of how absurd it may seem.

Sure, JAD, but all i'm going on is gut instinct here.

The OP's nytimes article makes the charge on the basis of:
- the perp's testimony
- a relative of the perp is in the Quds.
- the $100k was transferred from an account known to belong to a Quds member.

So you have a paper trail of sorts here but nothing more. This is the only evidence produced to support the charge. The FBI & a spokesman in the whitehouse are on record making the charge.

The thing i cannot figure out is why mount such an operation in the US. If they want to take out a Saudi ambasador then there are any number of countries they could have tried. Iran does not have diplomatic relations with the US since 1979. So their situational awareness of the terrain is at best not very good. That they would then try to contract the services of another entity in another country they do not know about, Zetas, is again a test of credibilty. And underpinning it all is a used car salesman as lead who uses a traceable means of money transfer. There is nothing professional in this story at all, its rank incompetence.

What purpose does killing the Saudi ambassador serve ? he'll be replaced by another.

If Iran wants to get back at the Saudi's why go with assasination of this ambassador and not something else. Has this ambassador in the past said or been instrumental in harming Iran in any way ?

The US does not need such a plot to push for another round of sanctions. All this devlopment does is raise the question of said sanctions by making ppl think bad bad Iran. Smells of dirty tricks.

Iran's reaction bears scrutiny. As usual they have brought Israel into the picture by calling the charge an Israeli-US plot.

Or a Saudi plot

A senior Iranian official denied the charge in a statement that is in itself untrue, considering Iran was implicated in killing an Iranian critic in his home in the US and has been known to play both sides of the fence in Afghanistan.

I read this in one of the articles and the idea of Iran supporting the Taliban is odd to say the least. Why would they support the Taliban over the Hazaras ie Shia. Maybe the understanding is for the Taliban to lay off the Hazaras until ISAF leaves.

The skeptics who hold that this operation was uncharacteristic of Iran cite the high professionalism of the Quds, who they say would never mount an operation using a loud-mouthed Iranian US citizen. Why not? Are they immune to stupidity? No country is 100% perfect in carrying out operations. The usually proficient Israelis get caught by a hotel surveillance camera. The US has its Fast and Furious and so on.

Like Sgt. Joe Friday says, "just give me the facts,ma'am."

Just seems contrived and smacks of a frame up. A farce.

Anyway, i'm hoping this goes to court and we get to see a real test of the evidence provided.