Syria and the collapse

[troung]

What makes Libyans worth of protection but Syrians not?

Syria has a better military, Russia would veto, and France hasn't shot itself in the foot by it's leader running his mouth.

[Double Edge]

Syria is in the French sphere of influence ?

[S2]

Double Edge Reply

"Syria is in the French sphere of influence ?"

The French like to think so. Then again, they still believe they hold critical influence in Lebanon.(;-)

[citanon]

Should we bomb Syria to protect the people from being killed by the government?

What makes Libyans worth of protection but Syrians not?

The Libyans are thus far much more successful at overthrowing their government than the Syrians.

[gunnut]

The Libyans are thus far much more successful at overthrowing their government than the Syrians.

Only after we interfered. Gaddahfi was doing just fine crushing the rebellion.

[cyppok]

Syrians Hold Anti-Regime Rallies Across Nation, Clash With Security Forces - Bloomberg

Thousands of Syrians demonstrated yesterday throughout the country to demand political changes, activists said, and some rallies were broken up by security forces with at least four people reported killed.

The deaths occurred in Douma, 15 kilometers (9 miles) north of Damascus, Agence France-Presse reported, citing a resident. Protesters emerging from Friday prayers began throwing stones at security forces, who then opened fire, and more people may have been killed while dozens were wounded, the agency said. Al Arabiya television reported that as many as 10 died, without saying how it got the information.

In the southwestern province of Daraa, where Syria’s protest movement began more than two weeks ago, demonstrations started after morning prayers, said Ammar Abdulhamid, a Syrian dissident who lives in Maryland and is in touch with people who are taking part. Ankhel, a town that is part of the Daraa governorate, was under siege by security forces, Abdulhamid said. There were also reports of rallies in the cities of Homs and Qamishly, he said.

A little suspicious on the dissident who lives in Maryland issue

Syria is the latest Middle Eastern country to be hit by a wave of uprisings that ousted longtime rulers in Egypt and Tunisia and sparked an armed conflict in Libya. The regime of President Bashar al-Assad is an ally of Iran and a power broker in neighboring Lebanon, where it supports the Shiite Muslim Hezbollah movement.
Tear Gas, Beatings

Demonstrations also took place in cities including Hama, Damascus and Latakia, Haitham al-Maleh, a Syrian activist, told Al Jazeera television from Damascus. He said security forces used tear-gas and pulled people out of mosques, beating some.

More than 90 people have been killed in Syria’s crackdown on the protests, according to unconfirmed reports cited by Amnesty International. Assad told parliament this week that political reforms are under way and the country won’t be rushed into changes, describing the protests as a conspiracy.

[S2]

The Devil You Know Vs. The Devil You Don't

Funny how we become comfortable being uncomfortable. Change, any change, can be difficult to contemplate. Witness Israel-

Israel, Long Critical Of Assad, May Prefer He Stay Afterall-WAPO March 30, 2011

Certainly, there's much for which to be uncertain. One of the more interesting highlights to this article, btw, is the side-bar graphic detailing the extent of construction for bunkers, supply points, observation posts and more undertaken by POG (Party Of God) in contravention of UNSC 1701 since August 11, 2006.

Good read. The side-bar is a must read for those interested in what Israel faces with its next invasion.

[S2]

Meanwhile, within Syria the slaughter continues. Over two hundred are now reported as having been shot to death by Syrian security forces. Our mute silence is deafening. So much for Obama standing by the aspirations of democracy for arabs. Even our most intractable enemies can count upon our support-

Shameful U.S. Inaction On Syria-WAPO Editorial Board Op-Ed April 22, 2011

[NUS]

Should we bomb Syria to protect the people from being killed by the government?

What makes Libyans worth of protection but Syrians not?

Oil.

[S2]

NUS Reply

"Oil."

I suspect that'd only be part of the answer. Oil is an incentive. Further, Libya doesn't offer the disincentives possible from Syria. The Syrians possess a greater deterrence capability, IMV.

Nothing, though, stops the U.S. from taking greater diplomatic action. Our response to date has been utterly feeble.

[tantalus]

S2

Oil is an incentive. Further, Libya doesn't offer the disincentives possible from Syria

perceiving the situation by the disincentives is closer to the mark in this situation but I am still puzzled by the US stance on Syria

Our response to date has been utterly feeble

it has

Nothing, though, stops the U.S. from taking greater diplomatic action

What steps could they take?, aside from public condemnation, which has been done

It seems this has to do with PR imo
In Libya the rebels welcomed foreign support. Syrians, and iam open to correction here, as a general statement, are predominantly anti-israeli and anti-american regarding current policies in the region and therefore have no interest in receiving support (even just vocally) from the obama admin. So there is very little to be gained for the americans. Now ofcourse its good to appear consistent in being seen to condemn the killing of protesters and the crushing of democratic demonstrations but the Obama admin. has gone quiet on the Bahrain issue, which is strategically important, despite early success in getting the army off the street, with events have taken a turn for the worse there. As a result, no matter what the stance on Syria, the inconsistenticies on political philosophy regarding the Arab Spring remain (ex.Bahrain). So perhaps its a desire for the USA not to appear central in curent events as the policies are inconsistent and therefore silence is the best policy, condemning Syria and taking greater actions would be fine if this was the only issue, but the PR is tied with multiple countries. After all. the Obama admin is clearly focused on improving the image of America in ME, atleast thats my impression.

So perhaps its the desire to stay out of the news that has resulted in such a feeble response???

Iam not condoning this by the way

[S2]

tantalus Reply

"I am still puzzled by the US stance on Syria..."

As am I.

"...What steps could they take?, aside from public condemnation, which has been done..."

The WAPO op-ed suggests the U.S. ambassador could be recalled. That's certainly an option.

I recognize the Obama administration has initiated a rapproachment with Syria. It may also be the perception from our Dept. Of State that Assad shall survive these demonstrations, and do so without any substantive accomodation. If rapproachment were to serve any greater utility, an ambassadorial recall might endanger such.

It is an altogether different matter weighing the value of such a U.S-Syrian rapproachment and I won't address it here. The above op-ed highlights my views regarding the likely marginal utility to be derived.

"...the Obama admin. has gone quiet on the Bahrain issue, which is strategically important, despite early success in getting the army off the street, with events have taken a turn for the worse there. As a result, no matter what the stance on Syria, the inconsistenticies on political philosophy regarding the Arab Spring remain (ex.Bahrain)..."

Indeed. Those inconsistencies are understandable. Most western nations appear groping for an appropriate posture, including the U.S. The reasons are varied. Discussing and extolling the values of liberty and democracy is always nice in the abstract. Facing that stark reality when so much has been invested in the maintenence of critical geo-strategic/economic status-quo relationships is an altogether different matter.

I don't expect a one size-fits-all solution. Syria, in particular, strikes me as a uniquely important challenge to American regional policy development. What evolves will be interesting to observe.

This from Beirut's Daily Star-

Change Of Course-Daily Star April 23, 2011

[tantalus]

S2

I recognize the Obama administration has initiated a rapproachment with Syria

interesting, ofcourse such a step may now be defunct in the light of recents events

It may also be the perception from our Dept. Of State that Assad shall survive these demonstrations, and do so without any substantive accomodation

Rationale is wait and see I guess, for multiple reasons

It is an altogether different matter weighing the value of such a U.S-Syrian rapproachment and I won't address it here. The above op-ed highlights my views regarding the likely marginal utility to be derived

Yes, best left for another thread. Perhaps that would change if a regime shift occured, while for now that seems unlikely, although events in Syria could quicky spiral for the regime...if so.. it would be interesting to see how Iran would respond

Discussing and extolling the values of liberty and democracy is always nice in the abstract

:) I figured you might hint at that

Facing that stark reality when so much has been invested in the maintenence of critical geo-strategic/economic status-quo relationships is an altogether different matter.

yes, true. However strikingly different conclusions can still be drawn in the light of those. However I will not get into it.

This from Beirut's Daily Star-

Change Of Course-Daily Star April 23, 2011

Assad needs to make meaningful concessions, and if he does, then Syria may change, although I remain skeptical. It has become difficult to predict. The article indicates that the middle class is staying in doors, and I imagine the article is correct in the importance of that remaining so for Assad. That is the key I suppose.

[tantalus]

BBC News - Syrian army 'attacks protest city of Deraa'

Syria's army has advanced into the southern city of Deraa, with tanks being used to back troops, according to activists and unverified video footage.

One activist was quoted as saying that security forces were "firing in all directions", and there were unconfirmed reports of casualties.

Witnesses also said security forces had opened fire in a suburb of Damascus.

Assads policy has been clear for awhile, but this latest escalation following the killings on the weekends marks the end of other options, surely he has lost any opportunity of offering meaningful reform. Violence is the only he will survive now, the question is... will it be enough to keep the protesters off the streets?

[citanon]

BBC News - Syrian army 'attacks protest city of Deraa'



Assads policy has been clear for awhile, but this latest escalation following the killings on the weekends marks the end of other options, surely he has lost any opportunity of offering meaningful reform. Violence is the only he will survive now, the question is... will it be enough to keep the protesters off the streets?

That's interesting. Did he lose control of Dara?