Peak Oil

[ace16807]

Worldwide 1979 oil production was not exceeded until 1995.
Table 11.5 World Crude Oil Production, 1960-2009 (Million Barrels per Day)

Now why did the oil glut happened in the first place ? to much demand or to little ?

So I don't see how the market was ever flooded by OPEC/USSR as you indicated.

And the oil glut happened because of sentiments following the 1979 Energy Crisis. There was a decrease in global oil consumption while global prices decreased. So I would hazard to guess that demand decreased.

[Roosveltrepub]

Was this trend due to exhaustion of recoverable oil or due to regulations?

Gunut, despite what you would like to believe on faith it has to do with actual recoverable oil not your imaginary boogeyman regulation. With drill baby drill at full tilt in the 80s with the openinging of the enormous reserves on the north shore of Alaska we were almost able to slow our decline in production 2o yrs ago....almost not quite. It's pure fantasy the idea the USA is going to magically be petro chemical sufficent with any amount of deregulatiOf course Opec and ussr production increased. My God 1979 if they hadnt oil would already be 250 dollars a brrell. The question for the usa is how much longer will we be held hostage to the most repressive regimes in the world?

[gunnut]

Gunut, despite what you would like to believe on faith it has to do with actual recoverable oil not your imaginary boogeyman regulation. With drill baby drill at full tilt in the 80s with the openinging of the enormous reserves on the north shore of Alaska we were almost able to slow our decline in production 2o yrs ago....almost not quite. It's pure fantasy the idea the USA is going to magically be petro chemical sufficent with any amount of deregulatiOf course Opec and ussr production increased. My God 1979 if they hadnt oil would already be 250 dollars a brrell. The question for the usa is how much longer will we be held hostage to the most repressive regimes in the world?

Tell me, how deep was that Deep Horizon well that sprung a leak last year?

Why are we drilling in that kind of depth?

Why aren't we drilling in shallow water?

Why aren't we drilling on land?

Dump the EPA tomorrow and I can guarantee you oil production in the US doubles in 5 years.

You and the environazis keep harping about NOT sending money to the peace loving middle east, at the same time do not issue permits to drill right here in the US. Then complain about the oil companies not drilling on the land they leased.

Oil is the cheapest form of energy we have right now. We can either use it up for ourselves, or let other people use it up for us while we expend vast sum of cash on alternatives. I know the left wants America to fail but this is ridiculous. It's like you worrying about cheap goods selling out so you purposely buy expensive stuff so other people can have the items on sale. I bet you don't do that in your life. I sure don't. When there's a sale, I'm hording as much as I can. Maybe even turn around and make a profit on it.

Let me know if you avoid sales and pay more for stuff. If you do, then you should pay more taxes because obviously you have too much money.

[DOR]

BP provides a huge amount of data on energy production and consumption, here http://tinyurl.com/26h3ayt. 84 million barrels of oil -- only --- consumed per day in 2009.

[InExile]

Dump the EPA tomorrow and I can guarantee you oil production in the US doubles in 5 years.

Dump the EPA, roll back every regulation; drill anywhere you like and how much you like, and I will guarantee you that oil production in the US will not double; in 5 our any number of years. There is a reason that there is only one Saudi Arabia in the world.

It's like you worrying about cheap goods selling out so you purposely buy expensive stuff so other people can have the items on sale. I bet you don't do that in your life. I sure don't. When there's a sale, I'm hording as much as I can. Maybe even turn around and make a profit on it.

Ofcourse it sounds stupid if you put it like that. But; this is a commodity that is vital to the economy. If we do know a certain number of years in the future oil production will start to decline by a certain amount each year; it might be prudent to just think ahead about how that might affect the economy and just maybe....prepare.

[1979]

Of course Opec and ussr production increased. My God 1979 if they hadnt oil would already be 250 dollars a brrell. The question for the usa is how much longer will we be held hostage to the most repressive regimes in the world?

Oil price and oil production are not related, in a free market economy they should be ,but they are not. In the years which world oil production was higher than ever before (1973 or 1979) prices did not go down but up.
Btw which oppressive regimes were you referring to ?
Canada and Mexico deliver more oil to the US than any OPEC country.

[1979]

There is a reason that there is only one Saudi Arabia in the world.

Curently Russia's oil production is at a similar level if not higher.

[ace16807]

Curently Russia's oil production is at a similar level if not higher.

Primarily because Saudi Arabia's production is limited a great deal vis a vis OPEC and maintaining what they see as a proper balance between market share and price. Saudi Arabia is generally accepted as having the largest oil reserves in the world with a round estimate of 200 billion bbl which far surpasses Russian reserves as I recall.

[1979]

So I don't see how the market was ever flooded by OPEC/USSR as you indicated.

And the oil glut happened because of sentiments following the 1979 Energy Crisis. There was a decrease in global oil consumption while global prices decreased. So I would hazard to guess that demand decreased.

Flooding is perhaps a to strong word but there was more supply than demand.
58.9 % of that supply came from the former ussr and opec.

Primarily because Saudi Arabia's production is limited a great deal vis a vis OPEC and maintaining what they see as a proper balance between market share and price. Saudi Arabia is generally accepted as having the largest oil reserves in the world with a round estimate of 200 billion bbl which far surpasses Russian reserves as I recall.

in 1990 saudy arabia production was 6.41 million barrels per day, in 2008 it was 9.26 million barrels per day ( with a all time peak in 2005 at 9.55).
But generally i agree that they could produce more if they wanted

[DOR]

Oil price and oil production are not related, in a free market economy they should be ,but they are not.

When supply is disrupted, as happened in the 1970s, the price reacts.
When Saudi Arabia sharply increases production, the price reacts.

[Chogy]

Abiotic oil (oil without life) may be rejected by geologists because they cannot explain it, but I think it shouldn't be rejected so easily. I am a chemist, not a geologist, and not a particularly smart one, but consider the evidence...

- crude oil = long-chained hydrocarbons. Take methane molecules, hook them together, you have octane, paraffin, all sorts of yummy oil products.
- There are large moons and planets with entire atmospheres of methane and ethane. There were no dinosaurs on Titan. This implies there were titanic masses of hydrocarbons in the early solar system
- Under heat, pressure, no oxygen (underground earth), these molecules link
- There may be mind-bogglingly large reservoirs of crude oil deep underground that seep upwards in thin or disturbed crust locations, to be tapped by man.
- fossil swamps/forests make coal, not oil.
- Wells thought tapped out and capped are re-opened, and significant oil has re-appeared for exploitation.

I think there is much to be said for this theory. If true, peak oil will be somewhere maybe tens of thousands of years from now, if ever.

[Double Edge]

Abiotic oil (oil without life) may be rejected by geologists because they cannot explain it, but I think it shouldn't be rejected so easily. I am a chemist, not a geologist, and not a particularly smart one, but consider the evidence...

Recall reading some time back that the amount of C12 in living species is not very different to the C12 found in oil. Thereby providing a direct link.

- Wells thought tapped out and capped are re-opened, and significant oil has re-appeared for exploitation.

Better extraction techniques and market or regulatory forces at play, presently we can only economically extract one third of what an oil well can produce before moving on. Am betting we get better at it as time moves on.

I think there is much to be said for this theory. If true, peak oil will be somewhere maybe tens of thousands of years from now, if ever.

I don't know how long but market price will play the biggest role in whether we stick with oil or move to something else. The higher the oil price goes the more pressure there is for alternatives. This is the main worry of the oil producers, they don't want oil to get too expensive because it will lead to permanent loss of customers to them. Maybe they do not place too much faith in China-India making up for the shortfall.

[Chogy]

Recall reading some time back that the amount of C12 in living species is not very different to the C12 found in oil. Thereby providing a direct link.

Wouldn't ALL of the carbon on earth start out from the same stock? Life would naturally take up carbon that already exists here... the methane and ethane.

I have no idea if it's true... I'd like to think it is. It's hard to explain the gigatons of natural gas surrounding many of the outer planets and moons. If we could build a pipeline from Titan, we'd have enough natural gas to last forever. ;)

[Double Edge]

Wouldn't ALL of the carbon on earth start out from the same stock? Life would naturally take up carbon that already exists here... the methane and ethane.

I have no idea if it's true... I'd like to think it is. It's hard to explain the gigatons of natural gas surrounding many of the outer planets and moons. If we could build a pipeline from Titan, we'd have enough natural gas to last forever. ;)

Fold :)

[1979]

When supply is disrupted, as happened in the 1970s, the price reacts.
When Saudi Arabia sharply increases production, the price reacts.

So actually the oil price depends on supply or production ?
Or maybe neither.