Certain things have come to my attention which are somewhat interesting.
I have my own conclusions about them but here we go...
[these stories are sorta of a progression not necessarily all recent (nor related) and if you want to read them in entirety the links are there, usually fairly short.]
Medvedev Creates New North Caucasus Federal District - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 2010
.
President Of Karachayevo-Cherkessia Dismisses Government - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 2010
Turkey Publicly Stresses Its Obligations To Defend Naxcivan - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 2010
"Turkey Publicly Stresses Its Obligations To Defend Naxcivan"
April 30, 2010
German RWE Signs Groundbreaking Agreement for Turkmen Gas - The Jamestown Foundation[tt_news]=36348&tx_ttnews[backPid]=27&cHash=28ac3acd4f
http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/mesh/fi...am_laqueur.pdf
‘Russia’s Muslim Strategy’ Middle East Strategy at Harvard
(my opinion on this paper is as follows. The author completely ignores the divide and conquer strategy. The center knows how to play the clans and ethnicities against each other that is why they kept the border of ethnic republics mixed in the first place to foment ethnic tension and be the necessary impartial judge to guarantee peace and prosperity. This was done from the first cacuasian wars when kipchaks and certain clans within ethnicities were fighting on the Russian side in return for favors or position post-facto, and this still continues to this day.
Then he quotes "eccentric" sources and uses them as a backlog of possible future thought or already becoming mainstream elements (which is really sad).
The reason I bring this paper up is precisely to show the delusion, and concentration of mainstream thinkers such as Mr. Lacquer upon what happened, and where the extremes are, but not what is happening. Him and others like him are the population of think-tanks in Washington and formulate policy which gets executed. They are still in the land of wishful thinking to some degree, there are a lot of exceptions but they are not in the majority...
CAVEAT CAVEAT CAVEAT ... I am of the skeptical mind that all information is biased weather read or written by the writer and or the organization which they represent. If its from one source its usually biased in favor of that source, sometimes a lot sometimes a little. My conclusions are also biased, but I will try my best to see and state what I think is happening instead of wishful thinking.
My feeling is that what is going on is a major restructuring of the Mid-east and Caucasus. The superseding of presidents of the republics by the federal center is a prelude in my mind to changing of he republics' borders and or how they are governed.
Turkey is very interesting at the moment, if Kurds are given direct political representation(in the form of parties if 10% threshold is lowered) they are de-facto integrated into Turkish society because they will be able to leverage their political power between the two major blocks. The statement about Naxcivan is interesting, if this is populistic to try to gain electorate for the AKP it is an interesting way of going about it. If it is both political and actual policy then Turkey is setting up to integrate its' internal problems if Kurds are satisfied politically, and begin to dominate outward into the region on a very note that would not satisfy either Iran nor Russia since the Azeri integration would be very dangerous for both. The most likely outcome is more integration with Iraqi north decrease of tensions with the Kurds and perhaps some deal making behind the scenes. Recently there were elections in Iraq Iraq's Turkomans Feel New Political Strength - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 2010
(very interesting article)
the aims of Kurds and Turkomans are perhaps different on Kirkuk today but things change...
I ll try to add more stuff a little a later and more opinion if need be still thinking.
I have my own conclusions about them but here we go...
[these stories are sorta of a progression not necessarily all recent (nor related) and if you want to read them in entirety the links are there, usually fairly short.]
Medvedev Creates New North Caucasus Federal District - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 2010
"Medvedev Creates New North Caucasus Federal District"
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev yesterday divided the Southern Federal District to create a new North Caucasus Federal District comprising six of the seven North Caucasus republics, plus Stavropol Krai. Adygeya, which is an enclave within Krasnodar Krai, remains part of the rump Southern Federal District, as does Kalmykia
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev yesterday divided the Southern Federal District to create a new North Caucasus Federal District comprising six of the seven North Caucasus republics, plus Stavropol Krai. Adygeya, which is an enclave within Krasnodar Krai, remains part of the rump Southern Federal District, as does Kalmykia
President Of Karachayevo-Cherkessia Dismisses Government - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 2010
"President Of Karachayevo-Cherkessia Dismisses Government"
April 29, 2010
Boris Ebzeyev dismissed the Karachayevo-Cherkessia Republic government on April 28 in line with a directive issued last week by North Caucasus Federal District head Aleksandr Khloponin.
April 29, 2010
Boris Ebzeyev dismissed the Karachayevo-Cherkessia Republic government on April 28 in line with a directive issued last week by North Caucasus Federal District head Aleksandr Khloponin.
"Turkey Publicly Stresses Its Obligations To Defend Naxcivan"
April 30, 2010
According to that press release, "the Naxcivan Autonomous Republic is an exclave surrounded by the several countries. The Naxcivan autonomous formation is exposed to various threats from the side of the Armenian state. For that reason, military cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan and the Naxcivan AR is one of the chief components of our relations."
Constitutional Amendments Further Polarize Turkish Politics
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 8 Issue: 87
May 5, 2010 03:39 PM Age: 1 hrs
In March, the government finally announced that instead of rewriting a constitution, it would opt for a smaller package of amendments. The amendments focused on changing the composition of the constitutional court and supreme board of judges (HSYK), dissolution of political parties, the decisions of the supreme military council (YAS), and the prosecution of past coup perpetrators as well as the expansion of certain civil liberties.
Several factors coalesced to force the AKP to refocus its attention on constitutional reform. On the one hand, the ongoing Ergenekon investigation put the AKP in a better position to call for further democratizing the Turkish political system. Similarly, the recent bickering between the government and the heads of higher legal bodies also added some justification to the AKP’s argument for redefining the powers and composition of state agencies. On the other hand, the AKP’s failure in the so-called “Kurdish opening” forced it to re-conceptualize the issue of giving greater rights to Turkish citizens of different backgrounds and present it as a broad-based “democratic opening.”
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 8 Issue: 87
May 5, 2010 03:39 PM Age: 1 hrs
In March, the government finally announced that instead of rewriting a constitution, it would opt for a smaller package of amendments. The amendments focused on changing the composition of the constitutional court and supreme board of judges (HSYK), dissolution of political parties, the decisions of the supreme military council (YAS), and the prosecution of past coup perpetrators as well as the expansion of certain civil liberties.
Several factors coalesced to force the AKP to refocus its attention on constitutional reform. On the one hand, the ongoing Ergenekon investigation put the AKP in a better position to call for further democratizing the Turkish political system. Similarly, the recent bickering between the government and the heads of higher legal bodies also added some justification to the AKP’s argument for redefining the powers and composition of state agencies. On the other hand, the AKP’s failure in the so-called “Kurdish opening” forced it to re-conceptualize the issue of giving greater rights to Turkish citizens of different backgrounds and present it as a broad-based “democratic opening.”
‘Russia’s Muslim Strategy’ Middle East Strategy at Harvard
(my opinion on this paper is as follows. The author completely ignores the divide and conquer strategy. The center knows how to play the clans and ethnicities against each other that is why they kept the border of ethnic republics mixed in the first place to foment ethnic tension and be the necessary impartial judge to guarantee peace and prosperity. This was done from the first cacuasian wars when kipchaks and certain clans within ethnicities were fighting on the Russian side in return for favors or position post-facto, and this still continues to this day.
Then he quotes "eccentric" sources and uses them as a backlog of possible future thought or already becoming mainstream elements (which is really sad).
The reason I bring this paper up is precisely to show the delusion, and concentration of mainstream thinkers such as Mr. Lacquer upon what happened, and where the extremes are, but not what is happening. Him and others like him are the population of think-tanks in Washington and formulate policy which gets executed. They are still in the land of wishful thinking to some degree, there are a lot of exceptions but they are not in the majority...
CAVEAT CAVEAT CAVEAT ... I am of the skeptical mind that all information is biased weather read or written by the writer and or the organization which they represent. If its from one source its usually biased in favor of that source, sometimes a lot sometimes a little. My conclusions are also biased, but I will try my best to see and state what I think is happening instead of wishful thinking.
My feeling is that what is going on is a major restructuring of the Mid-east and Caucasus. The superseding of presidents of the republics by the federal center is a prelude in my mind to changing of he republics' borders and or how they are governed.
Turkey is very interesting at the moment, if Kurds are given direct political representation(in the form of parties if 10% threshold is lowered) they are de-facto integrated into Turkish society because they will be able to leverage their political power between the two major blocks. The statement about Naxcivan is interesting, if this is populistic to try to gain electorate for the AKP it is an interesting way of going about it. If it is both political and actual policy then Turkey is setting up to integrate its' internal problems if Kurds are satisfied politically, and begin to dominate outward into the region on a very note that would not satisfy either Iran nor Russia since the Azeri integration would be very dangerous for both. The most likely outcome is more integration with Iraqi north decrease of tensions with the Kurds and perhaps some deal making behind the scenes. Recently there were elections in Iraq Iraq's Turkomans Feel New Political Strength - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 2010
(very interesting article)
the aims of Kurds and Turkomans are perhaps different on Kirkuk today but things change...
I ll try to add more stuff a little a later and more opinion if need be still thinking.
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