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Top Ten Chinese Military Modernization Developments
ofcourse DF-31 TUBES exist..we even saw the pictures, Those big empty ones the question was about the number of missiles deployed and the war head design....
I'm no military expert. I seem to be the only civilian on this forum who looks at the Defense threads and will admit that.
However, I have been working over a lot of info, (Largely from this board) and I think I can speak up on this issue. The PLA has no long range power projection capabilities beyond the use of it's somewhat limited ICBM force. Therefore, it is not comparable with the US Military. Simple fact. The PLA probably does have the ability to crush Taiwan now, but they know the risks involved, and the massive cost of such an invasion would make it pointless right now. The PRC won't attack Taiwan for the forseeable future unless the Republic does something stupid like declare independence. If this was to happen, I'd imagine the communist party (communists in name only Oneman) would have to bow to the enormous pressure they would be under from the large nationalist faction in the PRC and invade. If they did, it's likely they could hold off the USN for a little while, perhaps enough time to land enough troops there to complete the invasion and dig in on Taiwan, perhaps not. One deciding factor in a very near future conflict could be the nature of the US presense in Iraq, as this could continue to tie down a lot of troops for a while. If the PLA could complete the invasion of Taiwan in time, then it is unlikely the US could drive them out without a massive war effort, which probably wouldn't be on the cards. In this case the war would probably settle into a stalemate in which the USN eliminates the PLAN and the USAF carries out airstrikes and the like to damage the Chinese economy and force some concessions out of them until a negotiated peace came along. Nuclear weapons wouldn't be used because I doubt any leader would be stupid enough to destroy their own country in the process of ordering a nuclear realese. At least I sure hope so. In the end, the PLAAF and PLAN are really only disposable forces to slow down the US enough to allow the PLA to seize Taiwan.
And oneman, you need to accept that the PLA just isn't that great right now. They're certainly better than they used to be, and I'm sure they will be much better than they are now in 10 years, but the only job they're certainly good for is defending the PRC and keeping the peace within. It's not a swipe at China or Chinese people to say that your military isn't as great as you might want. Seriously I'm Australian and I can admit the ADF is understrength and lacking in some very basic equipment like ammunition. And we have some New Zealanders on this forum, and they don't even have an Air Force anymore, so imagine how they feel. And I should make the point that having lots of nukes is nothing to be proud of. Anyway, I think everyone needs to relax and stop with the name calling and ego stroking.
The DF-31 is NOT deployed. The intel guys never saw new missiles in the silos and no new barracks were built. However, there were sightings of new TELs at locations where it would have been impossible for them reach. Hence, the reservations of they MIGHT be deployed
The DF-31 is NOT deployed. The intel guys never saw new missiles in the silos and no new barracks were built. However, there were sightings of new TELs at locations where it would have been impossible for them reach. Hence, the reservations of they MIGHT be deployed
... until this picture came along, it's a baloon.
Damn!! A very effective decoy. Forces the US to waste its precious missiles and bombs and resources searching for this.
Maybe the PLA lets you see only what they want you to see.
They were the Ba'ath party's territorial militia units. They put up a much tougher fight than anyone expected against the US Military, which made them famous around the Middle East.
Man don't I look cool now. Anyway the inflatable decoys thing was a big part of Allied deception strategy before operation Overlord, where they managed to create an entire fictional army out of plywood buildings and blow-up vehicles. I guess if someone could pull that off then it wouldn't be a stretch to fool your enemy into thinking you have a few extra missiles.
Originally posted by Officer of EngineersView Post
Ok, this is important when gaging nuclear arsenals.
The DF-31 was told to Col Larry Wortzel by Chinese officials as being deployed in Henan. The only known 2AC unit there is the 80304 and US intel did not detect any new replacements of its older DF-5s.
What's more important is that we should give big leeway in stating about North Korean, Indian, Pakistani, and even Israeli nukes. The Chinese took over 15 years to fit a nuke onto a missile. Its earlier DF-2s aimed at Moscow was a bluff and was only armed with conventional HE. If the Chinese had obtain W-10 info, then, they still had failed to miniturized a MIRV warhead onto their missiles. The possiblity of the Israelis, Pakistanis, Indians, and North Koreans succeeding without nuke tests where the Chinese had failed with nuke tests are miniscue.
What specifically is the difficulty with the Dong Feng 31 that is slowing it down?
Is it not a Chinese copy of the Russian SS-25 small ICBM?
Is it the motor, the warhead or something else that is slowing deployment? Or just politics?
Are the Chinese not concerned with the possibility that the US bomber force, particularly the B-2 and B-1s could destroy most of their ICBM fleet with conventional weapons right now? With the expansion of the US ABM batteries, even it it requires 3 rounds for the ABM system to get one kill, they cant afford to lose many missiles in their holes and still maintain credability. They really need to get the DF-31 in the field...
Isnt the prolonged development itself a drawback to a credable defense?
If there is a DF-31 brigade. Do they have working missiles to fire from those launchers? And how many launchers is a brigade? And how many are still decoys and/or photoshop and how many are real?
Last edited by tomexe; 19 Oct 06,, 07:34.
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Those big empty ones 
the question was about the number of missiles deployed and the war head design....
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