Al Qaeda in Yemen

[Merlin]

It takes a failed airliner bombing at Detroit by a young Nigerian to prompt the US to take al Qaeda in Yemen more seriously.

Obama ties airliner plot to al-Qaeda's Yemeni affiliate

3 Jan [WashingtonPost] KAILUA, HAWAII -- President Obama said for the first time Saturday that the alleged Christmas Day airline bomber apparently was acting under orders from the al-Qaeda branch in Yemen, which "trained him, equipped him with those explosives and directed him to attack that plane headed for America." ...

US General Petraeus in Yemen talks on tackling al-Qaeda

2 Jan [BBC] Top US soldier Gen David Petraeus has visited Yemen's president amid a renewed offensive against militants, local media and officials say.

The general - responsible for US Middle East and Central Asian operations - reportedly said the US was keen to support Yemen's fight against al-Qaeda. ...

[Merlin]

The US should have acted sooner, in Yemen, as well as Somalia.

US & Britain to fund Yemen unit

3 Jan [RTE] The British and American governments have said that they will jointly fund a counter-terrorism unit in Yemen following the alleged failed bomb airline attack over Detroit on Christmas Day.

Downing Street and the White House said they would also intensify efforts to tackle the emerging terror threat from Somalia. ...

Michael Schuer, a former CIA agent and now a Professor of Security Studies at Georgetown University, says the two governments should have acted sooner.

[Countezero]

Georgetown hired Scheuer? Wow. I'm stunned. Or maybe not really.

At any rate, I am not sure, short-term, what can be done in Somalia. It's my understanding we have a significant SF and CIA presence already in Yemen and are in the process of adding to it, but maybe somebody else knows more about this?

[Bigfella]

The US should have acted sooner, in Yemen, as well as Somalia.

US & Britain to fund Yemen unit

Merlin,

The US did act. There has been a massive increase in aid over the past 12 months & The US actually bombed Yemen 2 weeks ago. The Administration has been keeping a low profile on this & other successful anti-terrorism efforts (a number of senior leaders have been killed in the past few months) rather than holding a press conference & declaring a great victory every time they do something.

Unfortunately all the 'monday morning quarterbacks' will now tell us that he didn't do enough.

WASHINGTON — The secretive U.S. air strike against suspected al-Qaida in Yemen last week is the latest in what has been a fast-growing campaign to better equip and fund Yemeni forces so they can eliminate the expanding al-Qaida safe havens there.

The Pentagon has poured nearly $70 million in military aid to Yemen this year, a massive financial infusion compared to nothing in 2008.

Much like the effort with Pakistan's Frontier Corps, the U.S. military has boosted its counterterrorism training for Yemeni forces, and is providing more intelligence, which probably includes surveillance by unmanned drones, according to U.S.. officials and analysts.

The heightened attention comes at a politically sensitive time, as the U.S. and Yemen continue talks on the possible transfer of Yemeni detainees in the Guantanamo Bay facility in Cuba back to their homeland. The transfer is critical to President Barack Obama's pledge to shut down Guantanamo, but U.S. leaders are not convinced that Yemen is prepared to handle the detainees, or that they won't simply be set free.

Information about any spike in U.S. involvement, including last week's strike that missed a key al-Qaida leader but killed others, is closely guarded by Yemeni authorities, who fear that a visible American role in the country will fuel internal conflicts.

As a result, observers can only whisper about Americans coming and going at an increasing rate from a military base in northwest Yemen, or the sightings of new aircraft and drones in the skies above.

The training sessions are generally small scale events that last a few weeks, and the number of military trainers in the country has fluctuated over time, said a senior defense official. The official said the counterterrorism training has varied from ground combat to air and maritime instruction.

"The U.S. presence is certainly growing there," said Gregory Johnsen, a Yemen expert at Princeton University, who regularly visits the country. He said it was particularly evident at the U.S. embassy there, when he was last in the country during the summer.

Story continues below
That increase, along with the recent strike that reportedly killed civilians as well as al-Qaida members, may only result in more support for al-Qaida in Yemen and stir up anti-government factions, he said.

"In the end it's probably counterproductive," said Johnsen, adding that video and photos of dead women and children from the blast "is a recruiting field day for al-Qaida."

U.S. officials will not publicly confirm participation in last week's strike, and will only offer broad comments about U.S. activities in Yemen.

"We continue to provide advice, training and equipment to both Saudi Arabia and Yemen as part of our ongoing security cooperation," said State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley.

Others, however, acknowledge U.S. involvement in the bombing, and say that the U.S. is providing increased logistical and surveillance support to Yemen in its campaign to stamp out the resurgent al-Qaida militancy in the vast ungoverned spaces.

The operation is the culmination of a strategy shift that occurred about a year ago, when the United States determined that the two key centers in the fight against al-Qaida are Yemen, located on the southern tip of the Saudi Arabian peninsula, and Pakistan, a military official with direct knowledge of the strategy told The Associated Press.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the secretive nature of the operations, say the support comes at the request of Yemen.

Crowley flatly denied suggestions that the U.S. is getting involved in Yemen's internal war with Shiite Hawthi rebels in the north, saying "we have no direct role in what's happening along the border."

Saudi Arabia launched an air and ground offensive in the north against the Yemeni rebels on November 5, after skirmishes along the border.

Many believe that conflict has evolved into a clash between U.S. ally Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran, who Yemen accuses of backing the rebels. The Shiite rebels charge that the Yemeni government is allied with hardline Sunnis. Tehran has denied any involvement.

A steady stream of U.S. diplomats and military leaders have gone to Yemen, pressuring the government to step up its campaign against al-Qaida.

Yemeni officials, meanwhile, stress that they need better equipment and other aid.

This year, the U.S. complied, with plans to provide more than $30 million for ships and other equipment for the Coast Guard, $25 million for border security, and about $6 million for helicopters with night cameras.

Christopher Boucek, a Yemen expert at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that direct military involvement in Yemen will not adequately address the problem.

"We need to build local capacity to deal with the issues on their own," said Boucek. "There is a lot we can do to address the issue short of dropping bombs."

Al-Qaida's operatives in Yemen and Saudi Arabia merged early this year to become al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP, a move that U.S. intelligence officials said was followed by more recruiting and efforts by those operatives – mostly unsuccessful – to cross the border from Yemen into Saudi Arabia.

AQAP has also made it clear in communications through the Internet and by other means that it intends to target Western interests across the Arabian peninsula.

___

Associated Press Writers Pamela Hess, Ben Feller and Matthew Lee in Washington and Sarah El Deeb in Cairo contributed to this report.

Yemen Is Growing Front In al-Qaida Battle

[dave lukins]

" British and American governments have said that they will jointly fund a counter-terrorism unit in Yemen following the alleged failed bomb airline attack over Detroit on Christmas Day".

It's an all female unit. The first of it kind, it should be interesting to see how it's received by other SF around the World

[Merlin]

Apparently the failed bombing of the flight to Detroit has become a needed wake-up call to the US government about the strength and capability of the al Qaeda group in Yemen, and about the necessity of good security checks on flights to the US.

With regard to Yemen, Gen Petraeus quickly paid a visit to the Yemen President, and both the US and the UK quickly closed their embassies there.

[Red Seven]

The US has an advanced operational base and LZ in Djibouti (Camp Lemonier) which has been a springboard for clandestine operations in the HOA, as well as an ongoing presense in Yemen. I think we will end up expanding existing SOF/SF and terminal guidance operations in both areas but I don't see the need for making too large a footprint in either place. Yet. My 2 cents.

[Merlin]

This below is an important point in the US fight against al Qaeda.

It is the same in Pakistan where the general population widely consider the fight against al Qaeda is "America's war".

Yemen Official Tells AP US Troops Not Wanted

7 Jan [NYTimes] SAN'A, Yemen (AP) -- As Yemen becomes the new front in the war on terror, its leaders want this to be clear: It does not intend to become another Iraq or Afghanistan with thousands of U.S. troops on the ground.

Foreign Minister Abu Bakr al-Qirbi drew some red lines Wednesday in its burgeoning alliance with Washington against al-Qaida, telling The Associated Press that Yemen welcomes U.S. and foreign troops for training, intelligence and logistical support.

''But not in any other capacity,'' he said, adding, ''there is a lot of sensitivity'' among Yemenis about foreign combat troops. He underlined that Yemeni forces would remain under Yemeni command, without any joint authority with the Americans. ...

Mistrust of the United States is high among the population of 22 million, and President Ali Abdullah Saleh relies in part on support from Islamic conservatives -- including some in the military -- who may resist too close an alliance with the Americans against al-Qaida. ....

[Merlin]

This looks bad. Resources are now needed by the US to do its work in Yemen. But it needs enough early ground work. Apparently it has not done enough to prepare for this.

U.S. Has Few Resources to Face Threats in Yemen

8 Jan [NYTimes] WASHINGTON — As the Obama administration confronts the latest terrorism threat in Yemen, its diplomatic and development efforts are being constrained by a shortage of resources, a lack of in-house expertise and a fraught history with a Yemeni leader deeply ambivalent about American help.

Administration officials said they focused on Yemen as a hothouse for Islamic terrorism from the day President Obama took office. The United States has tripled its foreign assistance to the country from 2008 levels and plans to spend up to $63 million on Yemen this year.

But by all accounts, that is a modest amount for a country that is suddenly a central threat on the foreign policy landscape; it is roughly the same amount the United States sends to Serbia. ...

Beyond providing military and intelligence help — showcased in recent airstrikes on training sites for Al Qaeda — the administration has yet to develop a coherent plan for dealing with Yemen’s pervasive poverty and corruption, according to former diplomats and outside experts. Those ills, they say, are at the root of Yemen’s lure for terrorists. ....

[Merlin]

This is a good analysis of the reality of US trying to defeat al Qaeda in Yemen.

US won't send troops to Yemen. How will it defeat Al Qaeda there?

12 Jan [CSMonitor] President Obama and the Pentagon have ruled out US troops in Yemen. The US will have to rely on civilian aid – which has been ineffective in Iraq and Afghanistan – to undermine Al Qaeda.

Washington. The US is looking at ways to help the Yemeni government stabilize its country that are unlikely to include sending American forces anytime soon.

That may appease some of the more radical elements within Yemen, including a Yemeni cleric, who said Monday that the US should keep American troops out of his country. Sheik Abdul-Malid al-Zindani, considered by the US to be a global terrorist with ties to Osama bin Laden, says a deployment of American troops to Yemen would amount to an occupation and would force Yemenis to “rise up” against their government.

“We reject any military occupation of our country and we do not accept the return of colonialism," Mr. Zendani said at a news conference Monday in Sanaa, the capital.

Despite fears of a growing Al Qaeda threat in Yemen, the American government does not appear to be looking to start another war. Instead, it’s looking to civilians to strengthen the weak Yemeni government, helping it govern and provide its own security. ....

The Yemen threat
Recent events have put Yemen back on the US national security radar. The so-called Christmas Day bomber is a Nigerian man who allegedly received terrorist training in Yemen. That incident followed the discovery that the alleged Fort Hood shooter was linked to another radical Yemeni cleric, Anwar al-Awlaki. Yemen is also where the USS Cole was attacked and 17 American soldiers died in 2000.

For its part, the Yemeni government has said that any deployment of American troops would incite more radicalism.

But the Yemenis are keen on American help. Many experts and administration officials believe the answer to Yemen’s problems lie in a robust civilian engagement ...

Civilian initiatives, however, have not been very successful in Iraq and are still unproven in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The State Department and USAID have so far been unable to provide adequate numbers of civilian experts to do this kind of work.

Few good options
But the US has few options, says Fred Kagan of the American Heritage Foundation, a think tank in Washington. “My question is: What is the alternative? And my answer is: Let’s try to mobilize the institutions of the US government that are supposed to be capable of doing this,” he says.

Sending troops to Yemen would be “extremely undesirable,” says Mr. Kagan, who is considered to be one of the chief architects of the surge of forces into Iraq in 2007. “I don’t know of any rational person who wants to do that." ....

[Merlin]

Yemen is strongly against US forces in it's territory. It is located next to Saudi Arabia. The targets of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Penisula has included the Saudi Royalty and flight to Detroit, USA.

Attacks threaten Yemen, regional energy industry

DUBAI (Reuters) - Militant attacks in Yemen could threaten its small but vital energy operations as well as having potential knock-on effects for the wider oil producing region if insurgents take advantage of the country's instability.

Yemen has come under pressure to act against al Qaeda since
attacks on its two main allies, Saudi Arabia and the United States, by militants coming from Yemeni soil.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has strongholds in Yemen's eastern province of Hadramaut and the towns of Marib and Shabwa, where the oil and gas fields of major international companies are located.

The biggest potential threat would be if insurgents took advantage of Yemen's instability and porous borders to spread operations to Saudi Arabia and beyond.

"AQAP has shown it would certainly attack Saudi Arabia and has threatened attacks on government targets, Western targets and oil supplies as well," Gregory Johnsen, a Yemen scholar at Princeton University, said.

"It would be no surprise if it is looking to retaliate for recent (Yemeni) attacks against it and the question is not if it will do so, but rather when, and what its target would be."

Yemen is an oil producing minnow in a region of export giants such as neighbor and top exporter Saudi Arabia, so interruption of its 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil output would have little impact on international energy markets.

But Yemen relies on oil revenues for 70-75 percent of public revenue and more than 90 percent of export earnings.

Any interruption to that income would put pressure on the budget of an already desperately poor country that says it needs billions of dollars of economic aid. ...

"Our knowledge of AQAP capacities is far from perfect, but it is a group that appears to be very ambitious and very ingenious in their planning of attacks," Johnsen said. ....
.

[Merlin]

Al Qaeda in Yemen has taken up deeper roots than Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and in Iraq.

Al Qaeda's Deep Tribal Ties Make Yemen a Terror Hub

22 Jan [WSJ] SAN'A, Yemen—In nearly a decade of rebuilding its terror network here, al Qaeda has put down deep roots, a move that is now complicating U.S.-backed efforts to battle the group.

Unlike other chapters of the global terror network, Yemen's Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is a largely homegrown movement, with carefully cultivated ties to the local population. That sets it apart from other affiliates of al Qaeda, and could make it much more difficult to dislodge.

The group's strategy: apply lessons learned from mistakes by affiliates in other Mideast havens, particularly Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

In both those places, al Qaeda's footprint weakened significantly as local support for the group turned sharply against it. To avoid a similar fate in Yemen, the group has worked hard to curry favor with local tribes—so much so that it is now largely interwoven in the country's tribal fabric. ...

Since late last year, Yemen has emerged as one of the biggest and most dangerous hubs for al Qaeda operations. ....

[badil]

whho created these failed states

Chaobam,

I guess the reason the US got involved in Afghanistan, and why Yemen/Somalia/Pakistan/Iraq/Lebanon/Syria/Saudi Arabia/any other failed state worry us is because 9/11 was done by Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda was based in a failed state, Afghanistan. If more states fail, Al Qaeda has more places from which to train, fund and launch future terrorist operations.

Now, I totally agree that war is NOT the answer in every case. To say so would be foolish and we do not have the men nor capability to solve every crisis in the world. But, failed states do worry me because they could harbor future terrorists. (Also, people starving and dying also concern me, but I won't argue the "bleeding heart" case here, simply the national security one.

afghanistan failed after usa left them alone after they fought proxy war for usa. somalia was left by un and now we call it fail state. saudi family was placed in saudi arab by uk and could not support it to become pass state. Think how these states should have been managed to not become failed states. if these states were properly managed these would not have been failed states. Lesson is support them as per democrcy and will of people so that goverments are supported by people. weak govt result in failed states. govt suported by majority people never fail. strengthen the countries with majority supported leaders. the states will not fail and will not give way to terrorists. now support afghanistan as per wishes of majority so that again it is not a failed state and again becomes problem.

[badil]

perception is stronger than facts

This below is an important point in the US fight against al Qaeda.

It is the same in Pakistan where the general population widely consider the fight against al Qaeda is "America's war".

Yemen Official Tells AP US Troops Not Wanted

Actually it is the way senior partner decides to fight- developes this perception. every country has its own way to fight but when senior partner dictates the ways and methods to fight, then the perception of general public is bound to gain roots. any deal in one area by pakistan and drone attack on same area developes a perception. So let the leadership of allied countries fight in their own way. Moreover we should not forget previous left alone events in the time of need which still have reasons to develope perceptions. again USA declaring to leave afghanistan, apearantly without rebuilding (repeating the previous mistake which may result in failed state) is expected to strengthen this perception.