Somalia Facing Biggest Battle

[Merlin]

Al Shabaab, al Qaeda's proxy in Somalia, is in a big battle with the Ahmed government in Mogadishu.

SCENARIOS-Somali government faces biggest battle yet

NAIROBI, May 13 (Reuters) - Somalia's fledgling government is facing its biggest test to date with battles against Islamist militants in Mogadishu killing scores and sending thousands fleeing the war-scarred capital. [ID:nLC789496

Here are possible scenarios for the Horn of Africa nation:

GOVERNMENT DEFEATS SHABAAB?
* In power since January, the government of President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed [ID:nLV26136] is seen by many foreign diplomats as the best chance for peace in Somalia for 18 years.

* For that to happen, however, the government needs to eliminate the threat of the militant rebel group al Shabaab, which means 'Youth' in Arabic and is said by Western security services to be al Qaeda's proxy in Somalia.

* The government is still building its own security services, which it hopes to be 20,000-strong eventually, and experts say at the moment they are probably not strong enough to break Shabaab's grip on parts of Mogadishu. International donors have pledged more than $200 million to beef up the security forces and fight piracy. Somalia is anxious to receive the funds, but diplomats are keen to see mechanisms set up to ensure accountability.

* African Union (AU) peacekeepers are in the capital to bolster the government, but do not have a mandate to pursue the rebels. The moderate Islamist movement Ahla Sunna is combating Shabaab in provincial areas.

* On withdrawing from Somalia at the start of the year, Ethiopia said it would intervene again if "terrorists" took power and threatened its security. There is no sign yet, however, of a return of Ethiopian troops, though Addis Ababa is said to be funnelling supplies to anti-Shabaab militia.

SHABAAB TOPPLES GOVERNMENT?
* Estimates of the number of Shabaab fighters vary, but may be around 10,000, experts say. The movement is swelled by some foreign fighters, who have come to Somalia to fight 'jihad' or 'holy war' in a conflict some have dubbed "Africa's Iraq".

* Although President Ahmed is an Islamist, used to head the old Islamic Courts Union whose security wing was Shabaab, and has promised to introduce sharia law in Somalia, that is not enough for the militants. They say he has sold out to the capitalist, Christian West by forming a government in a U.N.-sponsored peace process, and by accepting aid.

* Shabaab wants to topple Ahmed, introduce a hardline version of sharia law nationwide, and chuck out AU peacekeepers. Experts believe it has enough strength to do daily damage to the government, but probably not to force it out altogether.

PROTRACTED FIGHTING?
* The world's eyes tend to glaze over at news of yet more death and destruction in Somalia, but such protracted fighting, without a definitive outcome, is probably going to continue in the short- and medium-term.

* In that scenario, Shabaab will continue guerrilla-style hits against the government and the AU mission AMISOM, and engage in bigger battles -- like this week -- when Ahmed's administration steps up its response. ....

[Merlin]

There are more than one battle between the three groups.

Battles rage in Somalia

13 May MOGADISHU (Reuters) - Militiamen loyal to the government battled Islamist al Shabaab fighters in Somalia on Wednesday despite calls from around the world for a halt to the country's worst fighting in months.

Years of conflict have sucked in foreign militants, confounded 15 attempts to establish a central government, killed tens of thousands, displaced millions and created a security vacuum that has spawned piracy and other criminal activity.

Since the weekend, the capital Mogadishu has been rocked by mortar and machine gun fire as Islamist rebels try to topple President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed's government. The violence has killed at least 113 civilians, and thousands have fled the city. ....

Fierce clashes between Shabaab and a more moderate Islamist militia, Ahlu Sunna, in the central region killed at least five people on Tuesday in Mahas town, witnesses said.

"Al Shabaab fighters ran into a mosque for refuge, but residents kept firing at them with rocket-propelled grenades," local man Aden Hussein said by telephone from Mahas, which lies southwest of El Bur, a major Shabaab stronghold since 2006.

Local elders later intervened, he added, and persuaded the Shabaab gunmen to lay down their arms. The 126 rebels were briefly held captive, then released, residents said. ...

[Merlin]

The danger is real, having 'a militant Islamist regime that allegedly has ties to al-Qaida could seize control of the East African nation'.

Islamist offensive leaves West's Somalia strategy in tatters

15 May NAIROBI, Kenya -- A major offensive by Islamic rebels has brought Somalia's internationally backed government close to collapse and renewed the possibility that a militant Islamist regime that allegedly has ties to al-Qaida could seize control of the East African nation.

That would be a devastating blow to U.S. counter-terrorism and anti-piracy efforts in East Africa, where al-Qaida operatives bombed the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998. American intelligence officials accuse the rebels' spiritual leader, Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys, of helping to shelter suspects in those attacks, and since 2007, U.S. forces have launched airstrikes at terrorist targets in Somalia.

After a week of heavy mortar and rocket attacks that have left at least 135 people dead and sent tens of thousands fleeing, the insurgents have moved to within a half-mile of the hilltop presidential palace in Mogadishu, the Somali capital, which is being guarded by African Union peacekeepers with tanks and armored vehicles.

The Islamists, reportedly joined by hundreds of foreign fighters, didn't move on the palace Friday and almost certainly would lose a ground confrontation with the better-armed, 4,300-man peacekeeping force. Still, Aweys, a veteran hard-liner who U.S. officials charge is linked to al-Qaida, vowed to topple the government and institute "the Islamic state of Somalia."

Less than four months after a new, moderate Islamic government formed in a country that has been in the grip of civil war since 1991, the latest multimillion-dollar international plan to stabilize Somalia appears to be in tatters.

Despite a beefed-up African Union peacekeeping force and a U.N.-backed reconciliation effort, the moderate president, Sheik Sharif Ahmed, has failed to win the support of hard-liners such as Aweys or the powerful insurgent group al-Shabaab, which the State Department has labeled a terrorist organization.

"The prospect of (Ahmed's) government collapsing is real," said Rashid Abdi, a Somalia analyst for the International Crisis Group, a policy research organization. ....

[Merlin]

These international meetings are often slow to take off. This one should have been kicked off earlier.

One anomaly I notice. There is a lack of coordination. Piracy is supposed to be high on the agenda of this meeting in Rome. At the same time, another meeting is being held in Soeul, S Korea, specifically on Somali piracy, with also more than 30 countries taking part. The link is further down this post.

It is bad if this means one is Western backed, and the other is Asian backed.

Western-backed meeting on Somalia to kick off in Rome

NAIROBI, June 9 (Xinhua) -- A western-backed meeting aimed at stabilizing war-torn Somalia is set to kick off in Rome, a UN envoy for the Horn of Africa nation announced here Tuesday.

A statement from UN Special Representative for Somalia Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah said representatives from more than 35 countries and international organizations are expected to attend the 15th meeting of the International Contact Group to be held from June 9-10.

The meeting will include discussions on the political, security, humanitarian and development situation. Piracy will be high on the agenda. Somalia's Prime Minister will attend the meeting.

"This is an important time for Somalia and it is vital that the international community gives a strong message of support to the legal government," said Ould-Abdallah who chairs the International Contact Group.

"The regional organization IGAD, along with the African Union, are both extremely concerned, as is the wider international community, by the long Somali crisis. They have shown us the way at their recent meetings," he noted in a statement issued in Nairobi. ...

The International Contact Group, established by the United States and Norway, held its first meeting in 2005 in New York and its second in London. In recent years the membership of the group has expanded greatly, demonstrating increased interest in resolving the Somali crisis. ...

Somalia's UN-backed transitional government is battling against rival Islamist groups in violence that has swelled the country's more than 1 million internal refugee population.

Aid agencies say 3 million people need urgent food aid in one of the world's worst humanitarian crises.

Information on the Soeul meeting can be found here.
South Korea hosts international anti-piracy meeting

[pate]

More 'blue helmets' in Somalia's future? Or you think it will be perhaps two forces from two different coalitions? I'll be watching this...

[Merlin]

This is a scenario that may happen.

Somalia fears Al Qaeda takeover of Mogadishu

6 hrs ago [ABC] Somalia's Government fears Al Qaeda is positioning itself in the capital Mogadishu as a base to launch attacks across the African continent.

Somalia's capital has again been rocked by intense fighting between government forces and the militant group Al Shabab, which has links to Al Qaeda. At least 22 people were killed in the latest battle, including Mogadishu's chief of police.

The Islamist insurgents are determined to oust the western-backed Government. The Government has warned that an increasing number of Al Qaeda members are being drawn to Somalia with the aim of seizing control of the country. ...

[Merlin]

The situation at the Somali capital is getting critical.

Somalia: A Third High-Profile Killing

19 June [NYTimes] Gunmen fatally shot a lawmaker in Mogadishu on Friday, the government said. It was the third killing of a high-profile government official in three days. The legislator, Muhammad Hussein Addow, was a staunch supporter of Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, the internationally backed president. Mr. Addow was said to have been captured and killed by insurgents. The previous day, Mogadishu’s top police commander was killed in a battle in the capital, and Omar Hashi Aden, an administration official, was killed in a bombing attack on a hotel in Beledweyne in which 20 people died. ...

Somalia seeks military aid

MOGADISHU, June 20 - The speaker of Somalia's parliament Saturday asked neighbouring countries to deploy troops within 24 hours to help the embattled government fight rising attacks by hardline Islamist rebels. ....

[Merlin]

Kenya is responding. It is Somalia's southern neighbor.

But where are the aid predged by doner countries?

Kenya will not sit by as Somalia worsens -minister

NAIROBI, June 19 (Reuters) - Kenya will not sit by and allow the situation in neighbouring Somalia to deteriorate further because it is a threat to regional stability, the country's foreign minister said on Friday. ....

Kenya urges donors to honor pledges to Somalia

NAIROBI, June 19 (Xinhua) -- The Kenyan government on Friday called on donors to fulfill aid pledges they made to Somalia early this year to enable the Horn of Africa nation to meet security challenges.

Speaking in Nairobi after a crisis meeting with envoys from the European Union, Japan and China, Kenyan Foreign Minister Moses Wetang'ula said the funds would help bolster security in Somalia, a key to also helping end attacks by pirates off the country's coast.

He said the Kenyan government will intervene to bring normalcy in the war-torn Somalia where national security minister and other civilians were in killed in suicide car bombing on Thursday. ....

[Merlin]

This article explains why it does not think al Qaeda is on the move to Somali/Pakistan from FATA in Pakistan.

ANALYSIS-Qaeda seeks war, not refuge, in Yemen/Somalia

LONDON June 19 (Reuters) - Under pressure in his Pakistan enclaves, Osama bin Laden is facing a familiar quandary: Where to go next? The answer is unlikely to be Yemen or Somalia, despite their new prominence as regional al Qaeda sanctuaries.

U.S. drone attacks and a looming Pakistan army offensive against one of al Qaeda's main allies in a northwestern tribal area have stirred speculation that bin Laden's men are seeking a less risky refuge for their anti-Western campaign.

But simply leaving Pakistan's remote Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) could expose the world's most wanted man and his entourage of planners and bodyguards to satellite detection and the curious gaze of a local population of uncertain loyalty. ....

Yemen was "a pretty good safe haven" for lower-level members of al Qaeda provided the group did not get too strong and did not bring in the leadership. The presence of senior figures would provoke a tough security response from the government and the United States, he said.

The U.S. has fired missiles at Islamist militants in Yemen and Somalia before, and would be widely expected to do so again if a substantial al Qaeda influx were spotted in either country.

WAVE OF ATTACKS
At first sight Yemen and Somalia, as well as parts of central Asia and Afghanistan, might look suitable new havens.

Expanding militancy in Yemen and Somalia is a successful example of an al Qaeda effort to spawn affiliates on several continents to attack the "infidel" West and its local allies.

On Thursday, hardline Islamists allied to al Qaeda killed Somali Security Minister Omar Hashi Aden and 30 others in the deadliest suicide bomb attack yet in the Horn of Africa country.

Neighbouring Yemen, the Arab world's poorest country, has seen a new wave of al Qaeda attacks in the past year including a suicide bombing that killed four South Korean tourists in March.

Yemen is bin Laden's ancestral home and Yemenis figure prominently in al Qaeda ranks. Bin Laden once praised "Muslim lions" in Somalia for being able to "grind America's pride into dust" in a 1993 clash with U.S. forces.

And moving camp would be nothing new for bin Laden, his number two Ayman al-Zawahri or other senior associates.

Earlier in his career Zawahri sought sanctuary in several states, including Yemen. Bin Laden spent four years in Sudan before being expelled in 1996 and going back to Afghanistan, where he had fought Soviet occupation troops in the 1980s.

But that was before the 9/11 attacks and vastly heightened Western security efforts against Islamist militancy.

"A FISH OUT OF WATER"
Both men had to move at uncomfortably short notice when the United States attacked the Taliban in late 2001.

Raphael Perl, an official of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), said moving out of FATA would put al Qaeda at risk because militants were at their most vulnerable when in transit from one safe haven to another. ...

U.S. officials have told journalists that some al Qaeda fighters have begun moving to Yemen, a neighbour of oil giant Saudi Arabia, and Somalia because Pakistan had become too risky.

But Gregory Johnsen, a Yemen specialist at Princeton University, said he doubted there was firm evidence showing recent militant arrivals in Yemen were from Pakistan.

Most new fighters coming into Yemen are probably Yemenis coming home from Iraq and Saudi Arabia after participating in Islamist uprisings in those countries in 2003-06, experts say.

And if any al Qaeda fighters really have made the journey from Pakistan, it will not have been as an organised directive from al Qaeda's core leadership, several analysts say. ...

Incomers into Somalia appeared to be Yemenis, other Arabs and some Somalis from the diaspora, an expert said. As with the Yemen arrivals, most appear to be foot soldiers, not senior men.

For al Qaeda, FATA still has attractions, despite mounting risks. Its members have lived there for years, weapons are plentiful and few of Pakistan's federal laws apply.

Outside interference is resented and above all the presence of U.S. forces in neighbouring Afghanistan acts as a magnet for militants from many Muslim communities around the world.

Perl of OSCE said he expected al Qaeda would adapt to the pressure in Pakistan as it had adapted to earlier challenges. .....

[Merlin]

Ethiopia does not want to send in troops. They probably had their fingers burnt in their previous effort.

Ethiopia rejects Somali request

21 June [BBC] Ethiopia has refused a request by Somalia for military support to fight insurgents, saying such an intervention would need an international mandate.

The Somali authorities have been battling Islamist insurgents who control much of the country.

The speaker of Somalia's parliament had earlier urged neighbouring countries to send troops within 24 hours.

Ethiopian troops helped topple an Islamist movement in Somalia in 2006, but were withdrawn earlier this year.

On Saturday Somali parliamentary Speaker Sheikh Aden Mohamed Nur urged neighbouring Somalia, Kenya, Djibouti, Ethiopia and Yemen to intervene as fierce fighting continued for a second day in the capital Mogadishu.

But Ethiopian government spokesman Bereket Simon said that an international mandate was needed for such an intervention. He added that the international community, not just Somalia's neighbours, should assist its transitional government. ...

There are some 4,300 African Union troops deployed in Mogadishu, but they lack any mandate to pursue the insurgents. ....

[Merlin]

I didn't expect this large accountancy firm can play useful roles keeping track of doner aids to Somalia, as well as Afghanistan and Sudan.

Somalia hires PwC to monitor aid

8 July [FT] PwC, the world's biggest accountancy firm, is making a move into the world's worst failed state. Somalia's interim government has asked PwC to bring bookkeeping discipline to a country where lawlessness has reigned for nearly two decades.

At the demand of international donors, the besieged government has asked PwC to set up money tracking systems to ensure that aid sent to Somalia, including $67m (€48m, £41m) pledged in April, is spent as intended and not stolen by corrupt officials.

Somalia is in the latest phase of an 18-year civil war as Islamist insurgents, including some allegedly linked to al-Qaeda, seek to topple the western-backed government. Shoot outs, mortar attacks and suicide bombings have become so intense that aid agencies and the United Nations no longer base foreign staff in the country.

Abdulrahman Adan Ibrahim, Somalia's first deputy prime minister, said his government's efforts to tackle the Islamists and piracy had been constrained by the slow delivery of funds from donors nervous about their money going astray in the absence of a formal banking system.

"We want to be different from other African countries. We want to show the world that the money given to us will be going to where they want it, to be used in a transparent way," he said.

PwC has undertaken similar work monitoring donor payments in Afghanistan and Sudan. It declined to discuss details of the Somalia project, citing client confidentiality and security issues. ....

[Merlin]

Ethiopia does not want to send in troops. They probably had their fingers burnt in their previous effort.

Ethiopia has now sent in troops. They act as proxy for the US. Interesting solution.

Renewed US-Ethiopia relations to safeguard stability in Somalia

9 July [Afrik] Jacob Lew, Deputy Secretary of State of United States, last week made his first official trip to Ethiopia to strengthen the Obama administration’s ties with the Eastern African power. His visit which coincided with US concerns over the exacerbation of instability in the horn of Africa has, however, been linked to the expansion of development assistance to the government of Ethiopia.

The United States’ relationship with Ethiopia is based on a number of shared concerns, and these strategic relationships will remain the same in the new Obama administration, said Mr. Lew. Last week, the Deputy Secretary arrived in Addis Ababa where he held a press conference followed by a discussion with Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.

Ethiopian troops have recently been redeployed to Somalia to help avert insecurities posed by Islamist insurgents to both the country and its Transitional Government. This measure has been lauded as a proxy intervention by the US administration which is deeply concerned over Somalia’s growing reputation as a shelter for terrorists groups.

Inasmuch as concerns over advancing insurgents have been raised in the international community, their reluctance to support Ethiopia’s effort led to a withdrawal of Ethiopian troops without achieving its target. A move that did little to improve the instability of the country.

Following the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops, rebel Islamist group, Al-Shabab has shown strong a determination to remove President Sharif Sheik Ahmed’s government and force the African Union peacekeeping force out of Mogadishu. ....

[Merlin]

Another interesting solution by the US admin.

US pays Uganda to arm Somali fighters

9 July [Monitor] Ugandan troops in Mogadishu have been secretly selling guns and ammunition to Somalia’s struggling Transitional Federal Government on behalf of the United States government, Daily Monitor can reveal.

Explaining American assistance to the TFG during a recent press briefing to US journalists in Washington, D.C., a top US State Department official said Uganda has been supplying arms to Somali troops and picking dollars from Washington. ....

[Merlin]

It is good Clinton has decided to pay some personal attention to Somalia.

Clinton to meet Somali president

28 July [AlJazeera] The US secretary of state plans to meet the president of Somalia's transitional government during a seven-nation trip to Africa next week, the state department has said.

Hillary Clinton will meet Sheikh Sharif Ahmed on the sidelines of an annual trade forum with sub-Saharan countries, which will be held in Nairobi, Kenya's capital, on August 5, Ian Kelly, the state department spokesman, said in a statement on Monday.

The meeting comes as Somalia is ravaged by years of violence that worsened two months ago when armed groups stepped up an offensive against the internationally-backed government of President Ahmed. ....

[Merlin]

Somalia's weak government is in control of only a part of the capital and of the country. The rebels have al-Qaeda links.

As a country, it has a strategic location.

Q+A-What is behind the latest fighting in Somalia?

NAIROBI, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Fighting erupted between Islamist rebels, government forces and African Union (AU) peacekeepers in Somalia's capital Mogadishu on Friday, killing at least 22 people, witnesses said. ....

The latest violence follows days of to-and-fro battles for southern towns between the insurgents and pro-government militia. Here are some questions and answers about the clashes.

WHO IS FIGHTING FOR WHAT?
The U.N.-backed government of President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, a former Islamist rebel, is seen by many analysts as Somalia's best hope for a return to stability in 18 years of turmoil. But it has been pegged back by a stubborn insurgency and by in-fighting and rivalries within its own ranks.

It controls just small pockets of the capital Mogadishu and parts of the country's central region. This week, pro-government militia including the Alhu Sunna Waljamaca group launched a drive to retake southern towns from the rebels.

WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE SOUTH?
Insurgents including the al Shabaab group, which Washington says is al Qaeda's proxy in Somalia, have controlled most of the south for months. That includes the important port of Kismayu, and strategic towns such as Bulahawa and Luuq near the borders with Kenya and Ethiopia.

On Monday, Ahlu Sunna fighters chased al Shabaab out of Bulahawa without firing a shot. A day later, pro-government groups also seized Luuq from another rebel group, Hizbul Islam.

But on Thursday that all changed. Al Shabaab returned to Bulahawa in force and ousted Ahlu Sunna after fighting that killed at least 12 people. Hizbul Islam also retook control of Luuq without a fight. ....

Further north, Ahlu Sunna gunmen also launched an assault on the central town of Bula Burde. At least 33 people died.

ARE ETHIOPIA AND ERITREA INVOLVED?
Spokesmen for the al Shabaab and Hizbul Islam insurgents say Ethiopian troops have been accompanying the pro-government militia during this week's attacks, although it is not clear if Ethiopian soldiers actually took part in any fighting.

Ethiopia invaded Somalia in 2006 with tacit U.S. backing to rout an Islamic courts movement from Mogadishu. It withdrew its forces earlier this year, and denies all charges by the rebels that they have returned. Addis Ababa says it is providing training and advice to Ahmed's forces, but nothing more. Fighting with Ahlu Sunna this week were several members of Somalia's former Transitional Federal Government who had sought refuge in Ethiopia. When al Shabaab took back Bulahawa, some of them crossed the border back into Ethiopia, residents said.

Washington has accused Ethiopia's neighbour and arch-foe Eritrea of supporting Somali rebels including al Shabaab, and has vowed to take action if Asmara does not stop its meddling.

Eritrea says it is the United States, not Asmara, that is threatening to ignite more violence in the country by providing sending military aid to the Mogadishu government. ....

WHY SHOULD THE WORLD CARE?
Western security agencies say Somalia has become a haven for Islamist militants plotting attacks across the Horn of Africa region and beyond. In March, al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden urged Somalis in an audio tape to topple Ahmed, saying they had an obligation to fight his "apostate government". .... After a meeting with Ahmed in Nairobi on Aug. 6, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pledged to increase support to his government, and said that if al Shabaab could attract al Qaeda or other "terrorist actors" to the Horn of Africa nation, it would be a threat to the United States. ....

Days earlier, police on the other side of the world in Australia said they had uncovered a plot to attack a Sydney army base by men they said had links to al Shabaab. ...

Insecurity on land has also translated into piracy in the waters off Somalia, where sea gangs have made tens of millions of dollars in ransoms targeting ships using the Gulf of Aden.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?
Friday's pitched battles in downtown Mogadishu are nothing new, but combined with the fighting in southern and central regions, it amounts to a sharp increase in overall violence.

The 5,000-strong AU force of peacekeepers from Uganda and Burundi has good equipment and training, but is still only able to secure little more than the airport, harbour and presidential palace. The peacekeepers are often attacked by the rebels.

The success of Ahlu Sunna and other moderate pro-government groups in the south could point to an infusion of support and weapons, possibly from the United States. But their inability to hold territory in the face of a rebel fight-back suggests that the fighting over the Gedo region towns will go on.

Ahmed's prime minister tried to reduce government infighting and clan rivalries with a cabinet reshuffle this week, but it is yet to be seen if this will bring unity to the administration, or create more bad blood. ....

An independent group of Somali elders led by former president Abdiqassim Salad Hassan is attempting to broker a ceasefire between the warring parties, but says the rebel groups have so far rejected its entreaties.