Lull before storm or the beginning of end?

[Bill]

Iraq Insurgency Fading, General Reports

By Captain Ed on War on Terror

The top-ranking Marine in Iraq tells the New York Times that the insurgency has tailed off to its lowest level in months, evidence that the Ba'athist remnants and the foreign jihadists have lost the momentum and any popular support they might have had:
www.nytimes.com/2005/03/1...=d7bb02...

The top Marine officer in Iraq said Friday that the number of attacks against American troops in Sunni-dominated western Iraq and death tolls had dropped sharply over the last four months, a development that he called evidence that the insurgency was weakening in one of the most violent areas of the country.

The officer, Lt. Gen. John F. Sattler, head of the First Marine Expeditionary Force, said that insurgents were averaging about 10 attacks a day, and that fewer than two of those attacks killed or wounded American forces or damaged equipment. That compared with 25 attacks a day, five of them with casualties or damage, in the weeks leading up to the pivotal battle of Falluja in November, he said. ...

He said that several hundred hard-core jihadists and former members of Saddam Hussein's government and security services were still operating in Anbar Province, but that the declining frequency of the attacks indicated that the rebels' influence was waning.

"They're way down on their attempts, and even more on their effectiveness," General Sattler said.

Sattler and other American military brass still say that they have plenty of work to do to bring an end to the terrorist activity in Iraq. However, the fact that the New York Times even printed this shows the clear progress that has been made against Zarqawi and the former Saddam loyalists that want to impose their tyranny over Iraq again.

Part of that success comes from re-establishing Iraqi civilian authority in Fallujah, which has started coming back from ghost-town status. Prior to the American reduction of the terrorist stronghold in November, the entire town was under the thumb of Zarqawi's minions, and reportedly Zarqawi himself, although he bugged out when the Americans showed up. Now a force of 5,000 trained Iraqi police and troops patrol Fallujah, Ramadi, and outlying areas, encouraging those who fled the fighting to return. About 90,000 have done so, around a third of those who lived there before November.

The increasing control by Iraqis of Iraq has changed the tenor of both the terrorist campaign and the regard with which Iraqis hold for it. In the beginning, the romanticism of insurgents allowing Iraqis -- any Iraqis -- to take control of Iraq attracted some support. However, as the US has stood fast to its commitments for sovereignty and elections and the rebuilding of domestic security forces, the Iraqis have seen the distinction between home-grown tyrannists and liberation. The terrorists then had to switch tactics to kill Iraqis, which confirmed their status in the eyes of Iraqis.

Democratization, as we have seen, provides the only long-term solution to terrorism. When given a choice, people want freedom, not tyrannies. Even the New York Times appears to be learning this lesson ... slowly. (I do note, however, that this hardly leads their International section.)

[dalem]

I personally remain very confident that the insurgents are fading, both in numbers and in intent. I believe that it is very hard to maintain an active terroristic element in an open society, and I believe that Iraq is becoming more open over time. But at the same time I welcome skeptical professionals who remain guarded - the Bad Guys could be husbanding their strength for who-knows-what even as I type.

For the sake of the innocent Iraqis that are the primary targets, I hope I am right, and the skeptics are wrong.

-dale

[Shek]

I personally remain very confident that the insurgents are fading, both in numbers and in intent. I believe that it is very hard to maintain an active terroristic element in an open society, and I believe that Iraq is becoming more open over time. But at the same time I welcome skeptical professionals who remain guarded - the Bad Guys could be husbanding their strength for who-knows-what even as I type.

For the sake of the innocent Iraqis that are the primary targets, I hope I am right, and the skeptics are wrong.

-dale

I think the insurgency is fading and will continue to fade as the ISF stand up, the transnational assembly starts working, and the upcoming elections in DEC gives the Sunnis a chance to vote and feel a part of the government. I think we still have hard work ahead in the next 2-3 years, but don't doubt success against the insurgency. However, the keys to success in the long run will be crushing the international terrorism problem (AQ in Iraq) and the criminal gangs that will bleed legitamacy from the ISF if the Iraqis don't feel safe.

[Bill]

Hey sir, you just got back not too long ago, how would you characterize morale(both ours and the Iraqi NG)?

[Bluesman]

I think ultimate success lies with John Q. Iraqi.

It's a lot like fighting the Mafia in our own country. If the average guy is overawed with the power and scared of the ruthlessness of the local don, nobody peaches on him. He can do whatever, and a jury won't vote to convict.

But if the locals are willing to bet on YOU and against Mohammed bin Guido, you've got him. The Iraqi election was only possible because Bush won re-election HERE. The way Kerry was talking, the Iraqis knew he was a wobbly, shaky guy on the War, successful prosecution thereof. If Kerry had been elected, the Iraqis would've gotten the message: the Yanks are GOING; better not bet the family's lives on having them around to protect us.

And the insurgents would've STILL been awesome and fearsome enough to the Man in the Street to keep him under control.

As it is, when The People - 8 MILLION of 'em - showed up to vote and basically gave Zarqawi the purple-stained finger, his power was broken. "I can walk down the street with my mother and father, holding up my finger as proof of doing what he said he'd kill me for...and he couldn't touch me. My neighbors wanted to be a part of this, and joined me. Even the Sunnis are angry with their leaders for telling them not to vote, and NOW they are even further behind us, behind even the Kurds, who had an excellent turn-out."

The Ballot has never done more to defeat the Bullet. The People are now no longer Mao's sea in which the insurgent can swim. The terrorists now have to hide from their own kind, not just us.

We're winning. We will win.

[Bill]

"I think ultimate success lies with John Q. Iraqi."

Concur.

"We're winning. We will win."

See above.

[Shek]

Hey sir, you just got back not too long ago, how would you characterize morale(both ours and the Iraqi NG)?

I redeployed early to make it back for the fall semester of grad school, so its been 9 months since being in country and 12 months since being in command and being on the streets everyday, so I don't have the current pulse. However, many of the same things are happening, such as attacks on recruiting stations doing nothing to stop the flood of Iraqis seeking to enlist in the army/police (the ING was actually rolled up into the Iraqi Army a few months back). Also, there have been several articles about how the airing of ISF ops on AL-Iraqiya has boosted morale among the ISF. As far as our morale, once you get past the high optempo (if a soldier's not *****ing, then that's when you know something is not going well), I think morale is pretty good. The Army is equipping soldiers well and junior leaders (read - platoon level leadership - SL, PSG, PL) are doing the heavy lifting in terms of both fighting and developing the personal relationships needed with local shieks, etc. to get projects going and cultivate democracy at the local level. Any time you have that kind of responsibility, you'll be satisfied knowing that you are the one making things happen. Also, I've read many accounts that the Iraqi voter turnout inspired a lot of soldiers and made them feel that all the hard work and sacrifice has been worth it (these are the comments from the OIF II guys who arrived just prior to the April fighting and fought heavily in the fall and the Ramadan/Nov Fallujah assault period, so they had a lot invested in Iraq by the time the elections came around).

[Bluesman]

The terrorists now have to hide from their own kind, not just us.

Oh, I can't believe I forgot to post this...happened Thursday night (Iraq time) while I was just getting ready to leave my desk...

Y'all 'member the pic we had here on the WAB of the terrorist jerk-off that got his ass beat by the good people of the neighborhood where he tried to leave his bomb?

New development:
Local boys KILLED a pair of fedayeen that tried to establish one of those impromptu roadblocks in Sadr City. The killers haven't told anybody who they are, but they wrote out a note for the cops about it. (I got it from UNCLAS, from a friend that works with the Iraqi cops, so nobody get nervous...) Their fathers were returning from looking for car parts, and rolled into this comic opera bad-ass wannabe shakedown at a round-about. Both the old guys got rifle muzzles shoved in their faces, had their money lifted, and were insulted for not being good Muslims.

They got home, and one man's two sons and the other guy's boy decided to go and get their dad's money back, but somewhere in the negotiations, they pulled their pistols and blazed away into the faces of the Osama bin Clanton gang, and wonder-of-wonders...none of the locals at the crowded intersection saw a dam' thang, officer.

The Bad Guys just aren't as scary as they used to be. Killing people in the street may not be exactly the mark of a civil society, and it doesn't suit OUR notions of a decent lifestyle, ala American Suburbia, but it'll be a cold day in Hell before THESE people meekly consent to be fed into plastic shredders again.

Essentially, the incident may have been a horror show, but I do see a positive angle, here.

[Confed999]

but I do see a positive angle, here.

Certainly. I hope the sons were uninjured, Iraq needs people willing to fight for their rights.

[Bluesman]

Certainly. I hope the sons were uninjured, Iraq needs people willing to fight for their rights.

Right on. You and I would have called the cops. These lads have a bit to learn on how to behave as law-abiding citizens. But they could teach a few of us in the West a thing or two about standing up to armed might, and being self-reliant.

Gawd help the next strongman wannabe that tries to make this lot knuckle under again. It may just be a single anecdote, but I'm starting to feel better about the fear that Iraqi Shi'a are just shadow Iranians, awaiting their marching orders from Tehran. Frankly, I don't think even WE will be able to keep guys like this on the leash for long.

And I'm FINE with that - let 'em decide their own national destiny.

[dalem]

Right on. You and I would have called the cops.

Not in Dodge City in 1879, we wouldn't have. :)

These lads have a bit to learn on how to behave as law-abiding citizens. But they could teach a few of us in the West a thing or two about standing up to armed might, and being self-reliant.

Absolutely.

Gawd help the next strongman wannabe that tries to make this lot knuckle under again. It may just be a single anecdote, but I'm starting to feel better about the fear that Iraqi Shi'a are just shadow Iranians, awaiting their marching orders from Tehran. Frankly, I don't think even WE will be able to keep guys like this on the leash for long.

And I'm FINE with that - let 'em decide their own national destiny.

Agreed.

(did you get my last email with the turns?)

-dale

[Bill]

I'm not too big on calling the cops. I much prefer to handle things myself.

[Lunatock]

I'm not too big on calling the cops. I much prefer to handle things myself.

Not to mention you avoid playing crooked cop roulette.

[lwarmonger]

Besides, in many places in Iraq, it would seem that the militia are the police. If these people want their rights, they've got to take them from those who would destroy their newfound freedoms.