Forecasters: Economic Recovery in Q3 2009

[Shek]

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/02/...ery-in-q3.html
Forecasters: Economic Recovery in Q3 2009

The U.S. economy is headed for two quarters of negative growth in the first half of 2009, according to 43 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters project that real GDP will contract at an annual rate of 5.2% in the first quarter and 1.8% in the second quarter of 2009. The survey participants expect economic recovery to begin in the third quarter of 2009. On a year-over-year basis, growth is expected to be -2.0% in 2009 and 2.2% in 2010.

http://www.philadelphiafed.org/resea...9/survq109.cfm

[gunnut]

Does that mean I should start buying some stocks sometimes this quarter?

[Herodotus]

I read also the Fed predicted unemployment to go up to 8 or 8.5% then start leveling off. That is to say the forecasters don't anticipate double-digit unemployment. We will see if they are right. If accurate how much effect did or will the bailout(s)/Stimulus packages have, or is this just a natural market correction?

[BudW]

Does that mean I should start buying some stocks sometimes this quarter?

If you have money to throw away sure go for it,things are going to get much worse before better.

[ArmchairGeneral]

Does that mean I should start buying some stocks sometimes this quarter?

Yep. Buy low. I'll bet Warren Buffet is having fun right now.

[Shek]

I read also the Fed predicted unemployment to go up to 8 or 8.5% then start leveling off. That is to say the forecasters don't anticipate double-digit unemployment. We will see if they are right. If accurate how much effect did or will the bailout(s)/Stimulus packages have, or is this just a natural market correction?

I haven't had a chance to read over the actual stipulations in the stimulus, but given that we're talking another $50 billion for housing, there's a potential that the stimulus and foreclosure forestalling bill could simply prolong things. If private investment is unsure about extensive government intervention, then they'll simply sit on the sidelines until they're sure that government intervention is complete and won't sneak in and kill their expected returns.

[gunnut]

Yep. Buy low. I'll bet Warren Buffet is having fun right now.

I remember his interview not long ago when he said:

"Be fearful when everyone is greedy. Be greedy when everyone is fearful. Right now I am greedy."

[Guest]

Yep. Buy low. I'll bet Warren Buffet is having fun right now.

Indeed,

WB has been loading Goldman Sachs and General Electric late last year into his holdings. So, there he puts money where his mouth is. But that being said, he does have a contradictory way of doing things from time to time ...

For example, from one side, he has been an staunch opponant of financial derivatives (options, futures etc.) from the other side, his holding company was selling S&P500 put options en masse outside the market.

Wieeeeeeeeeerd

[ArmchairGeneral]

Indeed,

WB has been loading Goldman Sachs and General Electric late last year into his holdings. So, there he puts money where his mouth is. But that being said, he does have a contradictory way of doing things from time to time ...

For example, from one side, he has been an staunch opponant of financial derivatives (options, futures etc.) from the other side, his holding company was selling S&P500 put options en masse outside the market.

Wieeeeeeeeeerd

You can make money from things that you think are essentially harmful to the economy. If I end up getting money from this stimulus I won't refuse it just because I think the stimulus is a terrible boondoggle.