Fate of the F-22 in Obama’s Hands

[citanon]

This has already been covered ad nauseum in other threads. Favored nations: Japan, Israel, Australia, UK, Canada.

Japan won't be able to keep its secrets well enough.
Israel can't be trusted.
Australia doesn't want it.
UK doesn't want it.
Canada doesn't want it.

There's no chance of watering it down. This isnt an F-15, a standard airframe with plug-and-play awesome goodies. The very DESIGN of this aircraft is a tremendous secret. The radar is fundamental to its employment...secret. The engines/inlet design...secret. Exterior coatings...secret. There's nothing to water down.

Maybe in 7-10 years things will change. If China decides to be aggressive that might advance any export timetable that exists, but barring that I have a real hard time believing this aircraft will ever be exported, unless the US sells off the obsolete F-22 when the next generation is out. The USAF won't be able to buy them over a long enough period of time to keep the line open until its safe to export.

When did the US first start selling the F15? How was that production line kept open?

[Jimmy]

They were building C/D models into the early 80s. E model production was from 85-01, and export models (not counting the handful of Js built in the US) have been in production since the mid-late 90s.

To answer your questions, about 20 years (not counting the J model being licensed), and the line is still open because they're still getting orders.

Edit: To clarify, those exports were new aircraft. We sold older ones earlier than that (to Israel, for example) much earlier. Maybe in the 80s?

[gf0012-aust]

An improved F-22??? How?

1. We already know that they're struggling to get some components for the existing fleet
2. We already know that the JSF has a better upgrade path than the F-22
3. We already know that the F-22 is going to be cost negative for future developments because of pts 1 and 2

Unless they zero frame and reharness it, unless they redesign the comms backbone its going to be a pain in the butt - thats why the US should stick with it and everyone else go to a future platform with a better future proofing base.

Absolute WOFTAM - and I suspect that the even the USAF would be quietly acknowledging that some of its support needs in existing through life support make it a very worrisome logistics burden

[ANZAC]

This has already been covered ad nauseum in other threads. Favored nations: Japan, Israel, Australia, UK, Canada.

Japan won't be able to keep its secrets well enough.
Israel can't be trusted.
Australia doesn't want it.
UK doesn't want it.
Canada doesn't want it.

There's no chance of watering it down. This isnt an F-15, a standard airframe with plug-and-play awesome goodies. The very DESIGN of this aircraft is a tremendous secret. The radar is fundamental to its employment...secret. The engines/inlet design...secret. Exterior coatings...secret. There's nothing to water down.

Maybe in 7-10 years things will change. If China decides to be aggressive that might advance any export timetable that exists, but barring that I have a real hard time believing this aircraft will ever be exported, unless the US sells off the obsolete F-22 when the next generation is out. The USAF won't be able to buy them over a long enough period of time to keep the line open until its safe to export.

Guess the F-22's future could hang on Obama.

Obama said his top budget priorities are energy independence, health care, education and rebuilding America's network of highways and bridges. He didn't mention buying more jet fighters.

Another report is saying that Pentagon plans to terminate production of the plane put President-elect Barack Obama's military and economic goals on a "collision course." The story noted that 25,000 workers are involved in building the fighter, so ending it could cause economic damage at a time when the next administration will be trying to create the same kind of high-paying jobs elsewhere in the economy.........
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Thom..._F-22_999.html

So, will Obama cut spending on big defence items like the F-22, or save 25,000 jobs [100,000 all up according to the article]?

And there was not much doubt that the Rudd Government was looking very closely at the Raptor early in the piece, and would have probably bought a mix of F-22's and F-35's 'if' they could, but that idea was quickly knocked on the head, so I guess we're stuck with the later.

And if you can't trust Allies like Japan and Israel, who can you trust, the Saudis?:(

Any way, I'll bet a Tatts [sweepstake] ticket with you that the F-22 is sold 'sooner' or later.:)

They were building C/D models into the early 80s. E model production was from 85-01, and export models (not counting the handful of Js built in the US) have been in production since the mid-late 90s.

To answer your questions, about 20 years (not counting the J model being licensed), and the line is still open because they're still getting orders.

Edit: To clarify, those exports were new aircraft. We sold older ones earlier than that (to Israel, for example) much earlier. Maybe in the 80s?

Post-Yom Kippur diplomacy enabled Israel to purchase the F-15 Eagle, which was then the world's best air-to-air fighter. For the first time in its history the IDF could operate a fighter that was a full generation ahead of all opposing interceptors in the region. The first F-15 arrived in Israel in 1976.

[Officer of Engineers]

And if you can't trust Allies like Japan and Israel, who can you trust, the Saudis?:(

I have to ask. Why do you place Japan and Israel over the UK, Canada, and Austrialia as the best American allies?

[ANZAC]

I have to ask. Why do you place Japan and Israel over the UK, Canada, and Austrialia as the best American allies?

I don't, Jimmy on post 45 doesn't.

[Officer of Engineers]

So, that doesn't answer your own question?

[gf0012-aust]

And there was not much doubt that the Rudd Government was looking very closely at the Raptor early in the piece, and would have probably bought a mix of F-22's and F-35's 'if' they could, but that idea was quickly knocked on the head, so I guess we're stuck with the later.

They were playing politics - they were advised very early on that the RAAF did not want it and that we didn't see a need for it.

While they were in opposition it was a free kick football which they used to their hearts content.

The story hasn't changed from RAAF and now the Minister looks a dick as he knows that the F-22 card is a dead one.

It's been knocked on the head for over 5 years - consistently by the professionals. Politics is a different beast of burden.

again, we don't need it, we don't want it and there are better ways to spend the money.

In a number of areas the JSF is the far better platform. It already has better future proofing, better network fusion and "awareness"

[ANZAC]

So, that doesn't answer your own question?

Not sure what you mean, I think you're getting me confused with Jimmy on post 45.

[Officer of Engineers]

No, I am not. This is your question.

And if you can't trust Allies like Japan and Israel, who can you trust, the Saudis?:(

So why are you implying that Japan and Israel are on par with the UK, Australia, and Canada? And by the same token, why do you assume the level of trust placed upon Japan and Israel is above ours?

The fact is that the UK, Canada, and Australia are trusted way above and beyond Japan and Israel.

[Zinja]

Another report is saying that Pentagon plans to terminate production of the plane put President-elect Barack Obama's military and economic goals on a "collision course." The story noted that 25,000 workers are involved in building the fighter, so ending it could cause economic damage at a time when the next administration will be trying to create the same kind of high-paying jobs elsewhere in the economy.........

That was exactly my point in my previous post. It is difficult to see how the Obama administration is going to justify laying off some 25,000 jobs at a time when its trying to get everyone back at work. This is why i think a batch of raptors spread across say 3 year period is the most likely scenario, if nothing else, just to keep the 'highly skilled' staff that the Obama admin is so keen to hang on to. After 3 years the F-35 will be in full swing and it is said can triple its current workforce, that can justify releaving the F-22 workforce to join the F-35 workforce, no jobs lost there.

Another thing (maybe not completely related to this particular topic) is there is talk of reducing the number of US carriers. The argument is that the large fleet was a result of the cold war which is now not necessary( so they say). However, that would potentially reduce the US's ability to respond to current flash points and therefore these proponents argue that allies should be given more responsibility to look after themselves and relieve the US of the burden which demands such a large fleet of carriers. The arguement goes on to say if the next two carriers due for refueling are instead decommissioned, the savings would effectively solve the problem of funding the next fleet of 60 or so raptors. Or alternatively, they argue that the current development period of a carrier be increased from 6 years to 8 years for the next Ford class carriers, that too would make savings enough for more raptors. Either way, both propositions argue for a reduced number of carriers.

Lastly, personally, i don't buy the arguement 'we don't need the raptors, we don't want the raptors, its not necessary' coming from US allies. I think it only takes one ally to be sold the raptor to see how empty that rhetoric is. Once one country outside of the US has a raptor, i can bet my nickel every other major ally would be scrambling for the raptor, maybe save for the UK.

[Jimmy]

The reason they dont want it is because its a dedicated air-to-air fighter. Who needs that? Who can afford separate A-A and A-G fleets? When you can get an F-35 that is still better than anything your neighbors have for air-to-air and it carries bombs!



In case my list injected any confusion, it was not in the order I consider our "best" allies, it was in an order to make a pretty list.

I didn't think about the Saudis, but even if I had I wouldn't have included them on a list of allies. Take that how you will.

[Gun Grape]

The arguement goes on to say if the next two carriers due for refueling are instead decommissioned, the savings would effectively solve the problem of funding the next fleet of 60 or so raptors.

Or alternatively, they argue that the current development period of a carrier be increased from 6 years to 8 years for the next Ford class carriers, that too would make savings enough for more raptors. Either way, both propositions argue for a reduced number of carriers.

The people saying that have no idea how the US DoD works. Navy money saved will not be used to buy Air Force planes.

There are various discussions on reducing the CVs but none of them mention buying more USAF planes with the savings.

[beez26]

Here are a few countries that I have a feeling would have a few conflicts with the US, which the F-22 would be of use (rank from most plausible to least plausible):

1. Iran
2. Sudan
3. N. Korea
4. China

Only my opinions though.

Anyhow, even without any major conflicts, the F-22 would be a great deterrent for future conflicts.

I dont think Obama will ax the f-22 cut the numbers yes but not totally eliminate future purchases. The US wouldnt need the f-22 for Iran,Sudan and north korea the cuurent fleet we have would be enough. But we do need it as a deterant for China and Russia so I am in favor of keeping it active. Just was woundering if the Airforce would ever consider buying F-18 Superhornets to replace older F-15's I have read in a few places that the superhornet is just as capable as the F-15C's we currently have?

[beez26]

No, I am not. This is your question.

So why are you implying that Japan and Israel are on par with the UK, Australia, and Canada? And by the same token, why do you assume the level of trust placed upon Japan and Israel is above ours?

The fact is that the UK, Canada, and Australia are trusted way above and beyond Japan and Israel.

I would have to agree with you on that Israel and Japan both have been caught selling US secrets to our enemies on several occassions more Israel than Japan but both have been caught. I would have no problems selling the F-22 to the UK,Canada or Australia. My other short list if they could afford it would be Poland (having a few that close to russia would be nice) and I wouldnt mind selling a few to France if they would buy them to suplement their rafale fighter (yes you can all yell at me now..lol).