Battle for Hearts and Minds - Jarret Brachman on AQ

[Shek]

Battle for Hearts & Minds | New York Times Video

Perspectives on Terrorism - Abu Yahya’s Six Easy Steps for Defeating al-Qaeda

[S2]

Al-Libi & Brachman

So what's the inside consensus on the al-Libi speculation, i.e. rationales for the six keys to the kingdom, validity as such?

I wonder how many juniors and seniors in colleges around the world are receiving in any course, seminar, guest lecture the insights into islamic jihadism that those cadets were receiving?

The study of assymetric warfare, islamic tribal/clan ethnology, terror networking and marketing, is amazing, leading edge stuff that's in the hands of handful of true applied and theoretical experts and a helluva lot of pretenders.

CTC is systemizing the experience into coherance for those cadets and I don't believe that anybody else in the world can currently provide anything similar.

It's an utterly unique academic boutique offering an incisive, focused curriculum of analysis and coursework. I find the notion fascinating that those twenty and twenty-one year old future infantry lieutenants will command rifle platoons with the developed perspectives of CTC behind them and well engrained.

[Shek]

So what's the inside consensus on the al-Libi speculation, i.e. rationales for the six keys to the kingdom, validity as such?

I wonder how many juniors and seniors in colleges around the world are receiving in any course, seminar, guest lecture the insights into islamic jihadism that those cadets were receiving?

The study of assymetric warfare, islamic tribal/clan ethnology, terror networking and marketing, is amazing, leading edge stuff that's in the hands of handful of true applied and theoretical experts and a helluva lot of pretenders.

CTC is systemizing the experience into coherance for those cadets and I don't believe that anybody else in the world can currently provide anything similar.

It's an utterly unique academic boutique offering an incisive, focused curriculum of analysis and coursework. I find the notion fascinating that those twenty and twenty-one year old future infantry lieutenants will command rifle platoons with the developed perspectives of CTC behind them and well engrained.

S-2,

The vast majority of cadets will have been exposed to the CTC for only 1-2 hours. Only about 10-15% will have seen cultural anthropology, social network analysis, and/or Islamic philosophy and ideology.

[S2]

Shek Reply

That's disappointing.

[S2]

Shek Reply

On further thought- that still represents 40-60 2LTs from an approx grad class of 400 or so.

You'd know better, but I'd guess that a goodly pct. will be combat arms, specifically airborne infantry rifle platoon leaders in high-speed/low-drag outfits. If so, then they'll be heading to Afghanistan and Iraq in short order.

It would seem that there's an under-utilized resource here unless application takes a back seat to vacumn theory. Brachman ought to be teaching TDY courses. 14 day TDY to USMA for combat arms battalion/brigade S-2s. Five classes, 10 days instruction, twenty students per...

Fourteen hundred man-days for 1Lts/Cpts. Maybe $300,000 plus TDY and course/instructor expenses. $500,000-1.0mil is chump-change for the value. Eighty hours of instruction would be huge. I'm sure that the relevant material is there.

Just idly speculating...

[Shek]

Brian Fishman on NPR:

Terrorism Analyst: Web Q&A Risky for Al-Qaida : NPR

[S2]

Actors

Great opportunity for those actors.:)) Zawahiri and all these salafi/wahabbists really lay the poetic turn-of-phrase to their writings and commentary.

Sounds wonderful on the radio backed by a great voice.

[FOG3]

So we're somehow stupid, because we aren't playing petty propaganda games? I suppose the press is impressed with that. Why would we need to sink to such a level? Especially as it would only play into their hands, hence why the guy is suggesting it.

Translation: Act like the Soviet Union so we can more effectively demonize you.

No thanks. The USNS Mercy has helped people in various countries and thus helped to turn opinion in our favor. It's much harder to demonize the guys that just saved your kid, rebuilt your road, etc.

I would say our efforts might be further applied in getting the young men off their butts and doing something productive thus depriving terrorist organizations of a recruiting base.

[Shek]

So we're somehow stupid, because we aren't playing petty propaganda games? I suppose the press is impressed with that. Why would we need to sink to such a level? Especially as it would only play into their hands, hence why the guy is suggesting it.

Translation: Act like the Soviet Union so we can more effectively demonize you.

No thanks. The USNS Mercy has helped people in various countries and thus helped to turn opinion in our favor. It's much harder to demonize the guys that just saved your kid, rebuilt your road, etc.

I would say our efforts might be further applied in getting the young men off their butts and doing something productive thus depriving terrorist organizations of a recruiting base.

So you want to quit the battlefield of ideas and cede it to the irhabi? Far from being petty, exploiting ideological differences or spinning any differences as ideological is savvy. Humanitarian missions may be effective is reaching out and touching many, but it's still the drifting younger male that will be attracted to ideas that we need to be worried about.

[FOG3]

If I have a bunch of doctors and such putting up stuff about how smoking is bad does that mean kids will stop smoking?

Look at how things would be arranged with what al-Libi is talking about. You'd basically just be giving them needed ammo. There's more then one way to skin this cat or do propaganda, Shek. We both recognize the issue is that specific category of young males and having to somehow sway them into something productive instead of destructive.

They need to be given some manner of direction, "countering" it as al-Libi's suggestions involve just makes it seem more rebellious, etc. ergo net boon for them with said target audience. It enhances instead of hurting their efforts, and that's why it is not savvy.

No the counter is to put out something that gives them direction, that makes the irhabi's offerings look like chopped liver in comparison. Something they can take pride in.

You should know perfectly well not to play the other guys game, Shek. So what needs to be done is modifying the game so we effectively dominate, just like any other military endeavor.

[Shek]

If I have a bunch of doctors and such putting up stuff about how smoking is bad does that mean kids will stop smoking?

Look at how things would be arranged with what al-Libi is talking about. You'd basically just be giving them needed ammo. There's more then one way to skin this cat or do propaganda, Shek.

No, you don't use doctors, you use kids. The recent meth ads in Montana have used images and other kids to persuade kids to not use meth. Extremely effective.
Image deleted at request of poster

This is exactly what Brachman's article gets at (and what Abu Yahya recommends) - you use folks that don't seem to be connected to the West to provide legitimacy when it comes to pointing out contradictions with Islam. For images, it's not as necessary since pictures often convey messages without the need for a person to be the messenger.

[FOG3]

Yes they're gross, they also aren't quite as effective as you claim. Despite similar campaigns in my state, from what I've heard things have if anything gotten worse. Of course, in this case you can't bring something so blatantly obvious to the table one cannot logically deny it like that. You think the irhabi can't launch a counter-propaganda campaign and use that material you would have us putting out there, Shek?

The fundamental problem is you have a bunch of males that:
-Are unhappy with their current environment
-More or less directionless

This makes this group historically easy to manipulate and organize into a force, by those with decent capability by providing them with a sense of purpose and at least an illusion of being able to help change their environment. Whether they be political movements, gangs, or otherwise.

The thing you seem to utterly fail to appreciate is that need is there whether the irhabi existed or not. If the irhabi are marketing something to fill that need, and you're just defaming the irhabi you're not gonna win.

It's like the Greens lecturing people about their choice in vehicles. It doesn't matter how many "experts" or converts they drag on up, for the most part no one is going to listen to them, because they don't serve their interests. Basic capitalism Shek. Unless we market a better product to fill demand, the only shop in town fills the demand. There's a need in this case and it has to be filled. This isn't swaying people in a naturally stable neutral position, because those people aren't the problem.

[Shek]

Yes they're gross, they also aren't quite as effective as you claim. Despite similar campaigns in my state, from what I've heard things have if anything gotten worse. Of course, in this case you can't bring something so blatantly obvious to the table one cannot logically deny it like that. You think the irhabi can't launch a counter-propaganda campaign and use that material you would have us putting out there, Shek?

Actually, meth use is way down in Montana since the campaign launched. You can't contribute all of the decline in usage to the ad campaign, since there are other reasons as well, such as cutting in to home cooked meth by banning OTC sales of some cold medicines. However, since this was a national ban, you'd expect that the relative ranking of meth use wouldn't change. There are other supply factors, but the sheer magnitude of decline along with the change in relative ranking provides a motivation for the success of the ad campaign. You can then find some support for causality through the attitudes survey that can be found on the same site.

Montana Meth Project

MONTANA METH PROJECT SUMMARY RESULTS
The Problem

As of September 2005 Montana was overwhelmed by methamphetamine abuse:

Montana ranked #5 in the nation for Meth abuse
50% of inmates were incarcerated for Meth
50% of foster-care admissions were Meth-related

THE CAMPAIGN
From September 2005 through September 2007, the Meth Project sustained a large-scale, statewide prevention campaign spanning TV, radio, billboards, newspapers, and the Internet. This campaign included:

45,000 TV ads
35,000 radio ads
10,000 print impressions
1,000 billboards

IMPACT
Montana Market Results: 2005-2008
As of April 2008:

Montana ranks #39 in the nation for Meth abuse
Teen Meth use has declined by 45%
Adult Meth use has declined by 72%
62% decrease in Meth-related crime

The fundamental problem is you have a bunch of males that:
-Are unhappy with their current environment
-More or less directionless

This makes this group historically easy to manipulate and organize into a force, by those with decent capability by providing them with a sense of purpose and at least an illusion of being able to help change their environment. Whether they be political movements, gangs, or otherwise.

The thing you seem to utterly fail to appreciate is that need is there whether the irhabi existed or not. If the irhabi are marketing something to fill that need, and you're just defaming the irhabi you're not gonna win.

It's like the Greens lecturing people about their choice in vehicles. It doesn't matter how many "experts" or converts they drag on up, for the most part no one is going to listen to them, because they don't serve their interests. Basic capitalism Shek. Unless we market a better product to fill demand, the only shop in town fills the demand. There's a need in this case and it has to be filled. This isn't swaying people in a naturally stable neutral position, because those people aren't the problem.

The problem is that Salafism isn't the only game in town. It is a competitive market. Why do you join a movement? To feel a part of something is some of it. However, there is also a component of pride and feeling proud of what you will do. Many of these younger males find what they believe is the "true" Islam, and so they can be proud of what they will do. However, the contradictions of the extreme Salafists with Islamic doctrine isn't that difficult to point out. If you drive the wedge between this, then the thought that you are joining something divine is lost.

Which brings us back to how do we drive this wedge? If we don't fight on the ideological battlefield, then we simply cede this to our opponents. Your implication seems to be that a counter-message by AQ et al will simply and completely counteract anything we do at a minimum, and maybe put us in a worse position. Counter-propaganda and effective counter-propaganda are two distinct entities.

If you are a meth "terrorist", how do you counter this:

Image deleted at request of poster


The way things work is that the first effective message out there becomes the baseline. If a message is credible, then the burden of the proof falls on the counter-message to change the baseline. If you don't want to play the drugs game that you brought up, then sell me your counter-message to this image of a girl that was injured by an AQI suicide car bomb and eventually died. A huge propaganda victory for the US Army in Mosul (and a corresponding defeat for AQI's image).



Or we can use the Jordan wedding bombing in 2005:



The video of the would be female suicide bomber in the same attack isn't effective? What's your counter-message?

The opportunity to delegitimize AQ et al and their ideology exists. If we don't take advantage of this, then we cede the initiative.

[Swift Sword]

So we're somehow stupid, because we aren't playing petty propaganda games?

Fog,

There is nothing petty about the "propaganda games" in relationship to the current (and many past, for that matter) campaigns. Without the efforts of the propagandists both Allied and enemy, it is most likely that neither the Allied armies nor the armies of the Jihad would be engaged in Iraq.

Simply put, the pieces that need to moved in the game are so massive that force and finance have, as predicted, been unable to move them; they need to be persuaded/conned/otherwise bamboozled into moving of their own accord.

Assembled Officers and Gentlemen,

Continuing On Topic, the Brachman piece typifies one of the weaknesses that the "good guys" have consistently demonstrated in the years leading up to and through the current fight: it is behind the curve.

While Mr. Brachman's article is informative and Abu Yahya's assertions are something I certainly agree with, they are still coming late. What Brachman is highlighting is the same sort of stuff we were discussing with our instructors as Freshman two decades ago. However, it is certainly better late then never and we will be closer rather than further from victory and better off as a result of this sort of thing.

If you will permit a bit of speculation, the forthcoming problem as I see it in all of this mess has all the appearances of being the sequencing of targets.

Between Madison Avenue and Hollywood the United States is certainly well endowed in the propagadizing department.

To further, speculatively expound, switching the object of the attentions of the American propagandists from domestic targets to the enemy's target masses is going to cause some influential people to lose political and economic power which makes it a very hard sell to the Powers that Be.

Sorry to be such a stranger kind of regards (hope ya'll enjoyed the peace and quiet ),

William

[S2]

Swiftsword Reply

It's always more fun when you stop by. Miss your commentary, to be sure. Can't now but I'll comment later except to say we've long dominated the message with Elvis, MTV, and Disneyland.

Madison Ave. is God...if it wants to be.