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**kato** · 21 Oct 07,, 02:47

There's been a further development since then even - the German-Russian meeting in Wiesbaden between Putin and Merkel.

Some issues that affect both, such as Kosovo, were discussed, and the very good economic partnership between both countries particularly highlighted.
Also, Russia, in press releases surrounding this meeting, was pretty much "allowed" to call on Germany to "show criticism" regarding NATO and EU partners in particular about the pipeline issue.

We'll probably see some semi-open posturing on the issue in the next weeks and months, some hidden, some more open. Current focus is a bit more on the US, in particular with the identical derision from both Russia and Germany regarding Bush's "WW3" comment about Iran.

Some english-language links (all from Deutsche Welle) for the German perspective surrounding those talks last week:
1. Ahead of Talks, Merkel Stresses Good Relations with Russia
2. Merkel, Putin Urge Iran Dialogue as Solution to Nuclear Crisis (includes a good part on Nord Stream!)
3. Putin, Merkel Meet in Shadow of US-Russia Chill
4. Opinion: Berlin and Moscow Look to the Future (commentary)

The entire current issue is really about dividing up the Baltic Sea somewhat, or rather seeing who are the top dogs.

Finland is pulled into this "pipeline alliance" due to their total reliance on Russian oil - seriously, they import 100% of their usage, all from Russia.
Germany has signed several contracts with Denmark regarding defense cooperation (in addition to NATO; for example a joint commercial sealift treaty), and Denmark has approved the pipeline running through their waters, so they're somewhat on the German-Russian side here too.

The sticky point is the Baltic Countries and Poland on the "other side", with Sweden in a separate stance leaning even further against it.

Some background stuff:
NoCo 2007, the current big joint maneuver headed by Germany and Sweden is actually somewhat interesting to analyze regarding this issue.
The entire scenario is laid out as a joint NATO/EU exercise, and all NATO and EU members around the Baltic Sea contribute - except Estonia, notably. Also, Lithuania was supposed to send a ship in the planning layout - replaced by a second Latvian ship in the actual line-up. Poland's contribution was originally supposed to be bigger; in addition to the frigate they are sending, they were asked for several helicopters - declined. That Sweden sort of co-heads the exercise (with Germany) seems to be something of an attempt to placate them.

**rickusn** · 21 Oct 07,, 03:33

Kato thanks for more clarification on this issue.

As youve said its pretty much flown under the radar.

I dont like the inherent implications.

Maybe its my intense study of historical Russian/German collaborations and conflicts that make me extremely wary/leery of these developments.

It wouldnt bother me so much if it wasnt for Putins constant threatening posturing.

And I totally understand the concerns/ fears of Latvia, Lithuania,Estonia and Poland.

Id prefer Russia and the US to be allies but that appears to be out of the question.

**kato** · 21 Oct 07,, 04:28

Originally posted by rickusn View Post

Maybe its my intense study of historical Russian/German collaborations and conflicts that make me extremely wary/leery of these developments.

Germany, so far, seems to be leaning towards a non-active mediator role actually. In particular with regard to the Baltics and Sweden, with Poland Germany itself has some problems.

The current climate gives Germany the opportunity to actually criticize Putin without repercussions even, and the government has had that done by lower-level officials.

I've got the feeling that the tension is mostly heated up locally, in particular in Estonia (anti-Russian in general), in Sweden ("oh my god Russian spies in front of our coasts, we need more money for the Navy like right now!"), and in Poland ("this is the new Hitler-Stalin-Pact" - yes, they've actually said that).

The Lithuanian government thinks "negatively" of the project. Haven't heard anything at all from Latvia, which is somewhat remarkable - but note how it's in line with what i said above about participation in that maneuver. Finland is simply shutting up and playing along with everything.

Belarus is majorly against the pipeline as it would replace their role as transit country. Poland and Lithuania are really opposed for the same reason. Both are transit countries for the current land-based pipelines.

The other major powers in the area (France, Italy) are not saying much because they actually benefit if the pipeline is built - everyone in Europe imports from Russia, more or less. The UK seems to be going along the lines of "continental issue, doesn't bother us" so far.

**rickusn** · 21 Oct 07,, 05:02

"everyone in Europe imports from Russia, more or less."

Yup

The smell of fear is the most horrible of odors even compared to death IMHO.

Appeasement is likely to occur just as in the last century.

And likely the same results.

""Germany, so far, seems to be leaning towards a non-active mediator role actually."

How can an active participant on the side that will gain agreat untold measure of advantage from this development be a "non-active mediator".

Talk about your conflicts of interest.

BTW Im 1/2 German, 1/4 Scottish, 1/4 Irish by heritage. In fact my maternal grandmother was from a German-speaking farming community spoke liitle english until she was a teenager in the 1920's. She went to a German Lutheran church and parochial grade school and married a Scottish farmer. My maternal grandmother was from Irish laborer stock and married a German farmer who always spoke primarilly English but again not his parents.

Its quite a volatile mix.

I have news though.

IMHO I dont think the US will be able to bail out the Europeans when the crap hits the fan as we have in the past. So dont count on it.

However if Russia chooses to attack the US or resort to its nuclear arsenal as threatened by Putin the outcome will not be pretty for anybody. Rest assured.

Putin is playing with fire and people better start realizing it before we hit the point of no return.

**kato** · 21 Oct 07,, 05:30

Originally posted by rickusn View Post

However if Russia chooses to attack the US or resort to its nuclear arsenal as threatened by Putin the outcome will not be pretty for anybody. Rest assured.

No problems there really. Remember, Europe has its own 128 SLBMs, plus the French ALCMs. Plus of course the German tactical nuke strike bomber squadron still equipped with US B61 bombs.

I don't really see it anyway. Potential conflict with Russia, that is. Putin is trying to garner votes for his party (since he himself can't be elected again), and does this by playing "hardball". There's nothing realistically to gain for Russia from war, even ideologically (no "freeing oppressed workers in other countries"). Overall, we're looking at a longer time frame anyway, more than Putin - or Merkel, probably - will see in power anyway. There's no one suddenly seriously upgrading their forces with enough power to rule the Baltic Sea - not that any of the countries involved would be crazy enough to try to counter the Russian Baltic Fleet or the German 2nd Flotilla (or both combined!) in that theater anyway.

I see far more volatile situations in other positions in Europe still - Belarus for example, i'd still bet on a Russian or EU "intervention" of some kind there within the next 5 years. Poland's relationship towards the West is also kinda shaky under their current government - which will change too of course sometime in the future, when the voters tire of them (they largely already have become tired with "the twins" at the voter base). Estonia, in my opinion, is provoking a bit too much lately - not just Russia, but a lot of their actions only earn them shaking heads in Western Europe as well. Greek Cyprus is getting the same for refusing to fusion with Turkish Cyprus, pretty much a scandal, as it was required for their EU accession. Kosovo, Albania and Macedonia are still and again a potential hotbed for conflict - not so much versus Serbia, but in particular with regard to Greece and Bulgaria. And of course the other little things, like the Russia-Ukraine-Transnistria-Moldavia-Romania relations, or the Caucasus.

**rickusn** · 21 Oct 07,, 06:07

You miss my point.

Putin is not rational.

The mere fact that he threatens nuclear holocaust and is building for it.

He does not view nuclear weapons as a deterrent but as an everyday weapon of choice.

And in no way is he leaving power. He is consolidating it.

There is now no dissent or opposition in Russia it has all been eliminated by brute force or the fear of anhilation.

The same fear that Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland has. Not to mention Czech, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania etc.

This is playing with fire for all of Europe once again by Germany and Russia.

It sends chills up my spine and makes my hair stand on end the more I realize the implicatons of this collaboration.

IMHO This new development with Germany while I can understand the need for energy security bodes ill for the future security of Germany in general.

Hope im wrong.

AND

"There's no one suddenly seriously upgrading their forces with enough power to rule the Baltic Sea - "

Russia and Germany are and have been doing just that.

And reread what you just wrote;

"not that any of the countries involved would be crazy enough to try to counter the Russian Baltic Fleet or the German 2nd Flotilla (or both combined!) in that theater anyway."

You see nothing wrong with that statement?!?!?!?!?!?!????!

You think the people in the countries Ive mentioned dont????????????

You yourself have mentioned the strained relations with Poland do you think they would find such a statement helpful????????????????

Do you put current events into an historical context?

Your assurances that everything is fine are worse than being doused by a pail of cold water during an ice storm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Feanor has mentioned a "chill" in the air but it isnt as he proposes a US/European issue.

Its a totally European/European issue.

Although right now Im about frozen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Because blaming the US for the consequences of Germany and Russias mystifying, insensitive to history unilateral actions are already flowing from the global propaganda mill.

And that must be what the vehemently anti-US FEANOR must be talking about although he as usual refuses to provide any documentation.

So who knows?

**BD1** · 21 Oct 07,, 09:44

some little points -
- When Est. goverment refused the permit for ´route recon´- to survey the seafloor one of major points was that the pipeline would go through a region on seafloor where in 1978(?) was a 7-magnitude earthquake . Seafloor AFAIK is filled with soft silt (here is a illustration - recently found russian ship ´Russalka´ , which went nose down to the bottom over 100 years ago - buried half-lenght into the silt Google Image Result for http://www.tuuker.ee/pictures/Russalka.jpg ) .
- Sweden and Finland , who were actually the biggest proponents of pipeline 10 years ago are quietly trying to distance from it . Sweden has publicly been worried that service platform (to be situated near Gotland) could be used for surveillance of their waters , Finland AFAIK is seriously worried that construction work would mess up their undersea hydrophone network . And of course none of them likes the idea of Rus.Navy providing the security .
Finland especially is doing the right thing IMO - they know that in case of **** hitting the fan NOBODY but themselves is doing the fight for their home . So they are taking it really seriously .
- Russia has stated that it will build a new radar station on an island couple of miles from Est./Rus. border for air surveillance .

- Prob. the last drop for Est. was the creating of ´Gazprom Army ´ - quite heavily equipped (para-)military force that would be legally sanctioned to operate on foreign soil .

-As of Est. provoking the Bear too much - could be true . Hard to tell from the where i´m standing .
- OTOH Latvian goverment (which will step down during next week with 90% certainty ) is doing the exact opposite - keeping their mouth shut not to aggravate Russia in any way . There is going on huge internal political fight right now between the Rus.-influenced current utterly corrupt gov. and their opponents .

Great blog BTW.

**rickusn** · 21 Oct 07,, 09:49

This is a very bad situation IMHO.
If the world situation wasnt what it is Im sure it would get more play.
Even still Im bit perplexed even though it makes my case of what Putin and Russia are doing all that more substantive.
I garner no solace much less joy from having to report such a gloomy future.

"Banging your head against a wall uses 150 calories an hour. "

No wonder I cant get above 150 pounds soaking wet!!!!!!!! LOL ROTFLMAO

**~~Feanor~~** · 21 Oct 07,, 10:33

''There is now no dissent or opposition in Russia it has all been eliminated by brute force or the fear of anhilation.''

Completely ridiculous.

AKM, NBP, RSKM, RRP, RKRP and many others. Many of them are highly marginalized, and lack contact with the bulk of the population, but active, and often violent, opposition certainly exists. While the police does continue to actively crack down on it, beating protesters, and arresting political activists, I believe you have missed the mark completely with your statement. Russian opposition exists, and is very much alive now, though perhaps it won't be a few years from now.

YouTube - Марш несогласных Dissenters' march Moscow
YouTube - Разгон акции НБП в защиту политзаключённых 25 января 2007
YouTube - Элементы - собрание левых сил (речь и ответы Егора Летова)

Video footage of active anti-government organizations. If you took the time to significantly research Russian life, beyond generalizations of geopolitical agendas, you would realize that the image you paint is far from the truth.

**rickusn** · 21 Oct 07,, 15:46

Actually this applies to you.:

"If you took the time to "significantly research" Russian life, beyond generalizations of geopolitical agendas, you would realize that the image you paint is far from the truth."

You sir calling me a liar is tantamount to war.

My record on "significantly research" is public knowledge yours doesnt even exist in your own mind

Your bear false witness and accusations are wiythout merit.

Cease and desist.

Stay out of my threads with your nonsense as you have been asked.

You have and have always had the sinister "agenda" and ulterior motives.

I backed all my contentions with the facts.

You have not, will not and cant.

I asked you to be man and step into the light.

You refuse that says it all.

Like I said I fear not you, Putin or Russia however many do and they appease you making your action and words bolder and aggressive.

We repeat history yet again.

It makes me sick.

**kato** · 21 Oct 07,, 16:37

One interesting thing happening today:

Poland is electing a new parliament, after the coalition government broke up in summer, and parliament dissolved in September. First results will be out in about 3 hours (will update then).

The coalition of the currently ruling Kaczynski twins is set to lose in this election. Current prognosis sees the market-liberal (centrist) platform of Donald Tusk at 47% (enough to rule with their preferred coalition partner, th pro-European Farmer's Party); the Kaczyinski platform PiS, rightwing-conservative, has only received around 33% in recent surveys. Third-biggest player would be the center-left platform of ex-Prime-Minister Kwasniewsky.

Donald Tusk is riding on the course to cut down social services (expanded by the Kaczynskis), lowering taxes and somehow creating a booming economy in order to counter the mass emigration that Poland has been facing since joining the EU (between half a million and one million people have left Poland since 2004 to work in other EU states).

In particular with Tusk's potential pro-European coalition partner, this would mean that the relationship between Poland and the EU would become a positive one again (the Kaczynski twins and their nationalist rhetorics have really hurt Poland's image internationally in the past two years).

Update, preliminary results:
PO (Tusk) - 44.2%
PiS (Kaczinsky) - 31.3%
LiD (Kwasniewsky) - 12.2%
PSL (Farmer's Party) - 7.9% (likely coalition partner for PO)

Looks like a solid win for Tusk.

**glyn** · 21 Oct 07,, 17:13

[QUOTE=kato;418547]Donald Tusk is riding on the course to cut down social services (expanded by the Kaczynskis), lowering taxes and somehow creating a booming economy in order to counter the mass emigration that Poland has been facing since joining the EU (between half a million and one million people have left Poland since 2004 to work in other EU states).

At least that many. The UK alone has admitted between 600,000 to 800,000. They have proved to be good workers and are integrating well.

**BD1** · 21 Oct 07,, 17:30

always wanted to ask how are east.eur. guest workers doing and how irritating are they ? I�ve heard that Poles and Lithuanians esp. are quite troublesome there needing sometimes foremen of their own nationality to work with them ?
AFAIK there are over 20-30k.of my countrymen overseas . Mostly in Finl. & other Scand. states , less in UK and Ireland

**~~Feanor~~** · 21 Oct 07,, 23:37

Originally posted by rickusn View Post

Actually this applies to you.:

"If you took the time to "significantly research" Russian life, beyond generalizations of geopolitical agendas, you would realize that the image you paint is far from the truth."

You sir calling me a liar is tantamount to war.

My record on "significantly research" is public knowledge yours doesnt even exist in your own mind''

But I was born and have lived in Russia, and taken part in anti-Putin rallies. You have not. I am to this day a member of an anti-government youth group (AKM). So believe me, when I say the opposition exists. It exists. You also completely ignored the links I posted. They're quite solid proof of my words.

Your bear false witness and accusations are wiythout merit.

Cease and desist.

Do you completely ignore all the links I post as evidence?

You have and have always had the sinister "agenda" and ulterior motives.

Right. I'm a secret KGB agent. Anyways back to reality.

I backed all my contentions with the facts.

I'm still waiting for facts on your contention that Russian opposition does not exist. Being a member of it I find that statement to be highly ignorant.

You have not, will not and cant.

I have. You just choose to ignore all the links I post.

I asked you to be man and step into the light.

You refuse that says it all.

Step into the light about what? My political views? I have expressed them many times.

Like I said I fear not you, Putin or Russia however many do and they appease you making your action and words bolder and aggressive.

I am not, never was, and never will be a defender of Putin or his agenda. I a deeply insulted that despite everything I say you continue to pile me and him into the same group. Being against the U.S. does not equal being pro-Putin. The world we live in is not a polarized Cold War.

We repeat history yet again.

Yes. Definetly. Especially the part where you ignore most of what I say, and simply tear out individual sentences to reply to. Especially the part where you continue to ignore all the links to evidence that I have posted.

It makes me sick.

Facts can do that to people.

I restate my clear point. The Russian opposition is very much alive and active. It takes very little internet research to find this out for yourself, but here I already did all the work for you. Your record on research may be impressive, but your statement was ridiculous, ignorant and offensive.

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German/Russian Baltic Sea Plans

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