Hitler vs Turkey

[cape_royds]

zraver:

Well, if Egypt had fallen, then the discussion about Turkey is moot. Even then, a German invasion of Turkey would be unlikely. Instead, Turkey would probably have gotten off the fence and adopted a political attitude appropriate to the reality of an Axis-dominated Eastern Mediterranean, e.g. joining the Anti-Comintern Pact.

I don't think the single railroad line connecting Turkey and Iraq would have served as an adequate conduit for an Anglo-American expeditionary force of any decisive importance. Basra and Baghdad had few of the logistical facilities of Alexandria and Cairo. Not to mention the shipping situation that would result.

[clackers]

can we create scenarios about Turkey vs Nazi Germany???

The editor of the Quarterly Journal of Military History put together a fun collection of essays called What If?, Big K. Authors included Stephen Ambrose and James McPherson.

In one of them, John Keegan proposes the Germans drive to the Middle East from the Balkans in 1941 instead of doing Barbarossa. The targets include Tehran, Mosul, Baghdad and ultimately perhaps Baku (to start the Great Patriotic War!), and they go through Turkey (from Thrace and Bulgaria) along the way.

He praises the way Turkey in real life was wooed by the Germans, British and Russians in the Second World War, consistently refusing to make concessions to any of them, but says while the troops would have been spirited defenders, they lacked any sort of modern equipment and couldn't be expected to actually stop the Wehrmacht.

[Big K]

The editor of the Quarterly Journal of Military History put together a fun collection of essays called What If?, Big K. Authors included Stephen Ambrose and James McPherson.

In one of them, John Keegan proposes the Germans drive to the Middle East from the Balkans in 1941 instead of doing Barbarossa. The targets include Tehran, Mosul, Baghdad and ultimately perhaps Baku (to start the Great Patriotic War!), and they go through Turkey (from Thrace and Bulgaria) along the way.

He praises the way Turkey in real life was wooed by the Germans, British and Russians in the Second World War, consistently refusing to make concessions to any of them, but says while the troops would have been spirited defenders, they lacked any sort of modern equipment and couldn't be expected to actually stop the Wehrmacht.

i think it would be hard to pass thru Istanbul Strait...especally without the support of German Navy...am i wrong?

[clackers]

i think it would be hard to pass thru Istanbul Strait...especally without the support of German Navy...am i wrong?

The alternate history article (which is interesting, but doesn't fit with Hitler's aim of hitting Stalin before Stalin hit him) doesn't give any details, Big K.

More likely it would have had to have been the unenviable job of Italian/Bulgarian ships and German aircraft and engineers. Unlike the Allies in 1915, they'd already be holding one bank ... the crossing can be done in about 800 metres, no?

The Royal Navy could try to assist but the casualties from the Luftwaffe would have been higher than experienced at Crete, I would have thought.

[Big K]

The alternate history article (which is interesting, but doesn't fit with Hitler's aim of hitting Stalin before Stalin hit him) doesn't give any details, Big K.

More likely it would have had to have been the unenviable job of Italian/Bulgarian ships and German aircraft and engineers. Unlike the Allies in 1915, they'd already be holding one bank ... the crossing can be done in about 800 metres, no?

The Royal Navy could try to assist but the casualties from the Luftwaffe would have been higher than experienced at Crete, I would have thought.

at ww1 despite all the heavy support of allied navy, the progress was not more than a few km's.

so in a "what if" scenario like this we can consider that the support will not be the same even the luftwaffe?

[zraver]

zraver:

Well, if Egypt had fallen, then the discussion about Turkey is moot. Even then, a German invasion of Turkey would be unlikely. Instead, Turkey would probably have gotten off the fence and adopted a political attitude appropriate to the reality of an Axis-dominated Eastern Mediterranean, e.g. joining the Anti-Comintern Pact.

I don't think the single railroad line connecting Turkey and Iraq would have served as an adequate conduit for an Anglo-American expeditionary force of any decisive importance. Basra and Baghdad had few of the logistical facilities of Alexandria and Cairo. Not to mention the shipping situation that would result.

A single rail line isn't much but it can be expanded on if the will is there, just look at the AlCan highway. More importantly the wild cards is Attaturk's maxim, "side with England" and how the turks view Germany's long term outlook, remember as Germany's Chromium supplier they know how much stuff Germany can really make. If war is inevitable verses either Germany or the USSR and its post Kursk post/ Stalingrad in my scenario where German positions don't look quite as strong as they did then Turkey is a free agent.

[clackers]

at ww1 despite all the heavy support of allied navy, the progress was not more than a few km's.

It's actually the other way round, Big K ... in WWI the Allies landed just five divisions (against six Turkish ones) to try and knock out those Dardanelles forts to let their navy through ... in other words, the navy wasn't supporting the army, the army was supporting the navy.

There was actually no invasion force for Constantinople on those ships ... the appearance of the fleet alone was hoped to magically cause the Ottoman Empire to surrender! Yep, only the Russians were taking Turkey seriously in 1915 ...

By comparison, the Germans would be committing a whole Army Group or more ... it would be the Wehrmacht's summer offensive for 1941, to set up a pincers attack on Russia in 1942.

As I and others have said before, going to war with somebody already supplying you with what you need was never part of Hitler's thinking (see also Sweden). But a contingency plan to invade Turkey was drawn up in case she entered the war on the Allied side after all. It was called Operation Gertrud, if you wanted to investigate it, but you'd probably have to research the German archives to see what it consisted of ...

[Big K]

...As I and others have said before, going to war with somebody already supplying you with what you need was never part of Hitler's thinking (see also Sweden). ...

do we have the figures of chromium supplied by Turkey to Germany?...

if my memory serves me well i remember that Turkish PM Inonu sad to Allies that Turkey can stop supplying Germany with chromium if Allies can buy the same amount it instead of Germany?

do we have numbers about the supply that we are talking about?

[clackers]

do we have the figures of chromium supplied by Turkey to Germany?...

I don't have any figures, Big K, but mineral sources for the German arms industry included France for aluminium, Turkey for chromium, Sweden for iron, Russia for tungsten, manganese and magnesium, Finland for nickel, and most importantly, Romanian petroleum (the Ploesti oilfields).

What couldn't be traded had to be conquered, so scarcities influenced German war aims, such as the direction of the 1942 summer offensive.

[Ucar]

Turkish Chromium Supplies to Germany in WW II

http://etd.lib.ttu.edu/theses/availa...met_Thesis.pdf

The chromium issue became very important for Turkish active neutrality. By the time of the friendship treaty with Britain and France on October 19, 1939, Turkey had agreed to sell 200,000 tons of chromium to Britain over the next two years, and the Turks would not sell chromium to Germany. However, the Turks forgot that most of their agricultural products were going to Germany. Thus, they told Britain to also buy Turkish dried agricultural products. Otherwise, it would be very difficult for Turkey to handle economic difficulties. At the same time Germany refused to buy Turkish dried agricultural products unless it received chromium. Britain accepted the Turkish offer, but at this time Turkey brought one more condition that Britain should sign an agreement to buy chromium for the next twenty years. Britain rejected this new offer, and agreed to buy 50,000 tons of chromium for the next two years, along with dried fruits. At the same time Turkey continued its trade with Germany. After Britain’s refusal to accept Turkish proposals, in 1940 Turkey signed a trade agreement. Turkey would send 45,000 tons of chromium to Germany between January 15, 1943 and March 31, 1943, after Britain’s agreement expired. This situation bothered Britain and the US as much as Germany that was expecting to receive it immediately. The US and Britain wanted to buy Turkish products to prevent Germany from obtaining them. However, this alliance could not prevent Turkey from trading with Germany. Turkey did not give an extension to the British agreement, and it did not deliver chromium to Germany before the date of the agreement. Turkey produced 1,088,000 tons of chromium, which was around 15 percent of world production. When Germany failed to deliver Turkish requested items in 1944, Turkey decreased its chromium export, and it was almost finished by 1945.

[clackers]

Interesting document from the US State Department, guys:

http://www.state.gov/www/regions/eur..._ng_turkey.pdf ... enjoy!

[Ucar]

It looks very interesting. I printed out a copy, and will read it in the earliest.