bluesman,
thanks for the book recommendation, will read up when i can.
regarding the political ramifications of an enormous federal defeat in the east, i think it would have been muted by events in the west, especially with sherman's atlanta campaign.
this happened at gettysburg, as well; had lee won at gettysburg, there would have been the corresponding victories at vicksburg for lincoln to point to. even in defeat, grant was still accomplishing one of his goals- keeping the ANV busy. had he lost "only" a third of his men, grant most likely would have kept on fighting- the battle at cold harbor (and this was fought at the END of the overland campaign) chewed up something along the order of 10-20% of the Army of the Potomac, but grant kept whaling lee regardless.
I wasn't aware that it was that critical and close, either, until I read 'Bloody Roads South', about the Wilderness through to Petersburg. It's one of history's great 'what-ifs', and I think what's most important to know about it is the effect a defeat of that magnitude would've had on the North: MASSIVE casualties in a battle at least as artful as Chancellorsville that would've pointed up the brilliance of Lee and the (apparent) definciencies of Grant, almost certainly leading to his relief as general-in-chief. If Grant had been mauled to the extent of losing a third or more of the Army of the Potomac JUST BEFORE the election (and that defeat would've been the end of the campaign, closing out 1864 with nothing else to come in the East), what with Lincoln's championing of Grant when almost everybody else wanted to throw him overboard - it was curtains for the Republicans, and the war would've ended with the North withdrawing and the Confederacy as an established fact.
regarding the political ramifications of an enormous federal defeat in the east, i think it would have been muted by events in the west, especially with sherman's atlanta campaign.
this happened at gettysburg, as well; had lee won at gettysburg, there would have been the corresponding victories at vicksburg for lincoln to point to. even in defeat, grant was still accomplishing one of his goals- keeping the ANV busy. had he lost "only" a third of his men, grant most likely would have kept on fighting- the battle at cold harbor (and this was fought at the END of the overland campaign) chewed up something along the order of 10-20% of the Army of the Potomac, but grant kept whaling lee regardless.
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