Ooopps..I meant the "Second" korean war.. (Damn how come I can't edit the thread's title???)
China is in one helluva politcal dilemma.
Kim Jong Il’s nuke test have basically stirred up a pot that China would rather just leave alone.
The way I understand it (which is not to say it’s true), China likes the status quo and any tipping of the scale one way or another will cause concerns in China.
Already there are debates in Japan about the possibility of acquiring nukes and we all know it’s not going to take years for them to achieve their goal. It’ll more likely be, “Hey we are going to acquire nukes”. Followed months if not weeks later by ”OK…we got them now.”
DPRK detonating a nuke (even a primitive one) has now moved the possibility of an armed conflict from the theoretical to a possibility.
If a war should erupt in the Korean peninsula…
…If NK should win the second Korean war and the whole peninsula comes under NK rule, Japan will of course beef up their military up to the point of acquiring nukes. China, of course, does not want that under any circumstances.
….If SK should win a second Korean war and the whole peninsula comes under SK rule, China will lose it's buffer state and even then, there is no guarantee that Japan will not arm themselves with nukes. Believe me, there is no love lost between Japan and EITHER Koreas, even though SK and Japan are supposedly "allies". The Korean’s reason for hating the Japanese, historically, goes about as deep as China’s.
My question to those of you with REAL (as opposed to the Internet warriors) expertise in the matter, militarily or politically is:
If there is a second Korean War, what position will China and Russia take?
What will be the likely outcome of such a war?
Final question is(and this is not realistic but I’m just curious about it) If there is a war and China/US/Russia stays out of it, who will: North or South?
China is in one helluva politcal dilemma.
Kim Jong Il’s nuke test have basically stirred up a pot that China would rather just leave alone.
The way I understand it (which is not to say it’s true), China likes the status quo and any tipping of the scale one way or another will cause concerns in China.
Already there are debates in Japan about the possibility of acquiring nukes and we all know it’s not going to take years for them to achieve their goal. It’ll more likely be, “Hey we are going to acquire nukes”. Followed months if not weeks later by ”OK…we got them now.”
DPRK detonating a nuke (even a primitive one) has now moved the possibility of an armed conflict from the theoretical to a possibility.
If a war should erupt in the Korean peninsula…
…If NK should win the second Korean war and the whole peninsula comes under NK rule, Japan will of course beef up their military up to the point of acquiring nukes. China, of course, does not want that under any circumstances.
….If SK should win a second Korean war and the whole peninsula comes under SK rule, China will lose it's buffer state and even then, there is no guarantee that Japan will not arm themselves with nukes. Believe me, there is no love lost between Japan and EITHER Koreas, even though SK and Japan are supposedly "allies". The Korean’s reason for hating the Japanese, historically, goes about as deep as China’s.
My question to those of you with REAL (as opposed to the Internet warriors) expertise in the matter, militarily or politically is:
If there is a second Korean War, what position will China and Russia take?
What will be the likely outcome of such a war?
Final question is(and this is not realistic but I’m just curious about it) If there is a war and China/US/Russia stays out of it, who will: North or South?
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