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Hume vs Schumer and Graham

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  • Hume vs Schumer and Graham

    A good ol' smackdown! Econ in action

    Here is a good question for an exam in international economics:
    "One of the fundamental tenets of free trade is that currencies should float -- or at the very least, move along with market forces." True or False? Explain.
    The quotation is from an op-ed in today's Wall Street Journal by Senators Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham, writing about their plan to slap tariffs on Chinese goods unless the Chinese let the yuan move in foreign-exchange markets.

    My answer would start by saying that the quoted statement is false. There is nothing inconsistent between free trade and fixed exchange rates.

    My explanation would emphasize David Hume's price-specie flow mechanism. Back in the 18th century, Hume studied how the world economy reaches equilibrium under the fixed exchange rates established by a world gold standard. In such a system, adjustments in the price levels at home and abroad were the mechanism that brought trade flows into equilibrium. As a result of automatic adjustments in money supplies and prices, fixed exchange rates between currencies can coincide with free trade in goods and services.

    Here is a question for the Senators to ponder: How do New York and South Carolina manage to have free trade between them? There is no floating exchange rate to bring interstate trade flows into equilibrium. By using a common currency, the two states effectively have a fixed exchange rate, and somehow everything works out just fine. David Hume explained why.

    Or maybe the Senators want to slap tariffs on interstate purchases until each of their states adopts its own freely floating currency. There's a topic for their next op-ed.

    For previous posts on the Chinese exchange rate, click here and here.
    "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

  • #2
    god, i hated econ when i took it in grad school. for a science that is all about quantitative analysis, it sure is bad at the whole predictions game.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    • #3
      Originally posted by astralis View Post
      god, i hated econ when i took it in grad school. for a science that is all about quantitative analysis, it sure is bad at the whole predictions game.
      It's tough when you have to squeeze data for all it's worth. Micro is solid - macro is just a bear becuase of all the lagged effects, and that's why it's tough to get consisently solid results.
      "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

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