Major Question for You Experts

[mjcorey]

Hello,
I'm writing a fictional book. Most of it has to do with viruses, which I know a lot about, but there's also a Russian invasion of Lithuania from Byelorus, followed by a NATO response from Poland, etc. (Byelorus gave in without a fight after being threatened big-time.) The Western response is somewhat confused because they are being attacked with bioweapons at the same time.

I'm afraid my question is rather general. What kinds of things would happen? Leopard-2's would be fighting T90's, but Poland doesn't have many Leopard-2's and Russia doesn't have many T90's. Then we're at PT91's and T80's, etc. Lithuania has essentially no tanks, as far as I can tell, but they have the RPG7VR, which is supposed to penetrate explosive-reactive armor pretty well. Obviously air support would make a huge difference too. If the attack were sudden, A-10's might not be available, but they could be moved from Ramstein, right? All depending on the fighter battle outcome, of course. Obviously the F-15, 16, 18/MiG-29 or -31 matchups are of interest too. If the battle is set in 2007, the F-22 may be available. Lithuania has some AA batteries--would they make any difference?

I'd love to have your comments. I know so little that you can treat me as a beginner in this field.

Thanks in advance,
mjcorey

[VovaLee]

There is a person.
He knows nothing. Besides, at all does not want anything to learn.
He does not want to search for the help information on the Internet, he does not want to find out the military doctrine of the states.
He at all does not want to esteem a forum on which has come and on which much from this was discussed.
But this idiot writes the book ŕbout Russian intrusion into Lithuania with application of viruses.
Then the same idiots will read this dung.
Earlier thought out intrusion of martians, already not before.
It is necessary to create an image of the new enemy urgently.
It is the Sad tendency.

[Bill]

Dude, you've made 30 posts, and i havn't been able to make sense of any of them yet.

[mjcorey]

>>

There is a person.

I suppose I should be grateful for this.

>He knows nothing. Besides, at all does not want anything to learn.

My Dear VovaLee,
First, I need to apologize for my poor education, which includes a BA from Harvard, an MA from Antioch (in writing), and a Ph.D. from Berkeley in Biochemistry, as well as 15 years' experience with recombinant viruses, 20 publications, several patents, and fluency in four languages. I am glad to encounter someone who knows so much more than I do. And I do want to learn.

>He does not want to search for the help information on the Internet, he does >not want to find out the military doctrine of the states.

On the contrary, I have been searching for specific technical information for months, and have had considerable success. If you reread my question, you will realize that I am asking for general impressions about the parameters affecting outcomes from experts who have spent years thinking about this.

>He at all does not want to esteem a forum on which has come and on which >much from this was discussed.

How would show that I esteem the forum? Should I pretend to be an expert when I'm not?

>But this idiot writes the book ŕbout Russian intrusion into Lithuania with >application of viruses.
>Then the same idiots will read this dung.

I see that I have to apologize for my IQ as well, which has been tested at slightly over 170. I am glad to have met someone who is so much smarter, and who also appears to know a great deal more about viruses than I do. I would be most grateful if you could explain the interactions between interleukin-4 and the variola protein complement, especially in a context of filoviral glycoprotein entry determinants. If you have the time.

>Earlier thought out intrusion of martians, already not before.
>It is necessary to create an image of the new enemy urgently.
>It is the Sad tendency.

Thank you for this last information (?)
Best regards,
mjcorey

[hammer]

Seems Vovalee got his ass whooped big time.

[Officer of Engineers]

MJ,

I'm going to respond later using the Kosovo ground action as the model which is the closest to the scenario you're describing. However, be advised that any bio strike is considered a WMD strike and would be responded by nukes.

[sniperdude411]

You'd think other countries would stoop down to their level?

Anyway, if you really want to learn, we should be happy to teach you. But I'm only 14, so I can't tell you much, but I'm sure others should be happy to help.
A main plan by NATO (not the UN, they'd definitely stay out of this) would be to knock out intelligence first. Key server farms, intelligence conduits, government buildings, radar stations, etc. would be the first targets. Then, key defense installations would be taken out, probably with numerous smart weapons. Nukes just aren't the thing anymore; they're more of a dry threat.

If anything, A-10s would be one of the first aircraft sent to eliminate defense installations. Never underestimate the power of A-10s.

You'll get more info from real experts soon, I hope.

[mjcorey]

MJ,

I'm going to respond later using the Kosovo ground action as the model which is the closest to the scenario you're describing. However, be advised that any bio strike is considered a WMD strike and would be responded by nukes.

Thanks so much, Chimo, Dude, and Hammer. I knew there were great guys out there. The nuclear response is a good point. I think it might depend, though, on whether the Western powers thought they could handle the attack without a nuclear exchange, and how strongly they believed the government was really responsible for the attack.

Thanks,
mjcorey

[Officer of Engineers]

I think it might depend, though, on whether the Western powers thought they could handle the attack without a nuclear exchange, and how strongly they believed the government was really responsible for the attack.

I'm afraid you don't understand. Both sides are signatories to the Chemical Weapons Convention. A nuclear response is both massive and automatic. We make no distinctions between a bio-chem strike and a nuclear strike. They are one and the same.

[sniperdude411]

Anotehr thing: If Russia currently has no WMDs, then how is it going to make some if the Western countries don't allow that kind of stuff?
remember, US spy sattelites (via history channel) can read a newspaper headlne from space, so not many things will get past those things.

[Officer of Engineers]

What the hell do you mean Russia has no WMDs? She has the same size nuclear arsenal as the US.

[Officer of Engineers]

The Western response is somewhat confused because they are being attacked with bioweapons at the same time.

Sorry, MJ, but I could not get past this statement. At this point, we would be tossing nukes.

This being said, I need some info from you to tell you what's going on before atoms and germs would be tossed.

What's the timeframe of the crisis you're talking about, before the shooting war between NATO and Russia? 1 week, 30 days, 6 months? This will tell me what kind of forces can be arrayed against each other.

However, I will emphasize again that once we confirm a biological attack, we will respond with nukes.

[Guest]

Your best bet to get around a nuclear exchange would be to make the biological attack the work of terrorists and the Russian invasion is launched to take advantage of the attack. Russia really wouldn't employ bioweapons anyway, in today' world with international air travel the risk of your bugs coming back to infect your populace is too great. I'm not even sure the status of Russia's bioweapon stockpiles since the Cold War ended. Yelstin supposedly ordered their destruction in 1992, but I'm not sure if they've all been eliminated.

Russian Bioweapons

[FSV]

Officer of Engineers is correct!! If a nation can be reasonably identified as responsible for a biological attack, it will suffer an overwhelming nuclear weapons response. And that’s just for starters!!

Of all the WMD types, biological is the most feared, by all ranks, especially if it causes genetic damage. This fear strikes deep in the human psyche. This is a weapon who’s effects (area & number of people affected) is difficult to predict or control, once released. It results in a diseased body. Infected people can pass on the disease to others. The disease can mutate. People can’t tell when or where they were attacked.

Many nations have political & military response plans for biological attacks. But with the first confirmed biological attack, these will go out the window. The fear, revulsion and anger generated by such an attack will result in the following:

For the nation; its government, military, & citizens, that institutes such an attack, any protections provided by any conventions or treaties will no longer apply!

Since a nation that institutes a biological attack can never be trusted by any nation, even long time enemies and adversaries will join together, to attack such a nation. There will be no holding back of information, or resources. Long time neutral nations will also join in the attack.

The combat will be so vicious, that combat on the WW2 Eastern Front (between Germany & the USSR) will be considered a ‘training exercise’ in comparison!! Since the military forces of a nation that institutes a biological attack will not be trusted, every time "contact" is made the “Black Flag” will be unfurled. “No Quarter”, asked or given!!!

At the end of the war, as a warning to all nations and peoples, the nation that institutes a biological attack can expect the following:

(1) For the surviving military members, all officers will be executed, no exceptions! For the enlisted people, they will be lucky to be “Decimated” (executing 1 out of 10), more than likely they will be “Quartered” (executing 1 out of 4).

(2) For the surviving political structure, all individuals that had direct control of the military, or its actions, will be executed. For those that were involved with the supplying or maintaining the military, they will be “Decimated”.

(3) For those involved with the development or production of biological weapons, they will be executed. For the ‘high level’ people there is a good chance they will die from being “Drawn & Quartered”. The same for those who ordered the biological attacks.

[For (1) through (3) there will be no trails! At most there may be an investigation. Simply being a member, or operating with these organizations, will subject individuals to the punishments! The ‘rules of proof’ will not apply! The simple ‘belief’ of the investigating officer that an individual is guilty will be sufficient. There will be no appeal process!!!]

(4) For the citizens of the nation that institutes a biological attack, their level of life style will be returned to that of the level prior to the “Industrial Age”! The terms “Let no stone stand, one upon another.” and “Sow the land with salt.”, will have true meaning again!!!

(A) All factory, foundries, electrical plants, water purification facilities, instruments, and machinery will be destroyed.

(B) All powered vehicles; cars, trucks, trains, planes, etc, will be destroyed.

(C) All locks, dams, and bridges will be destroyed.

(D) All books, records and documents will be destroyed.

(E) They will be banned from contact with the rest of the world for 100 years (the 3 generations rule)! Their boarders will be ‘sealed’, and patrolled, no one will be allowed ‘out’ or ‘in’ on pain of death. The only exception will be the Inspection/Monitoring Teams of the Allies.

(F) If this nation has oil or natural gas fields, they will be seized & operated by the Allies for the banned period. The products will be exported to the outside world, only! The profits will be disbursed as follows: 1 60% will be divided among the nations where the biological weapons were employed. 2 40% will be disbursed among the remaining Allies, based upon the % of their casualties, in relation to the total casualties suffered by the Allies.

I know all of this seems extreme. But such is the fear and revulsion that the employment of Biological Weapons will cause.

Gunny Jake
War to the knife....Knife to the hilt.

[hello]

My, oh my! It's World War 3 out there!