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If you delve a little further you'll see that the Nixon Camp never believed they had a "Southern" strategy, they had a National Strategy that included Southern states that were previously off-limits to them.
My personal belief is that the party did not substantially change between the Civil Rights movement and today on racial issues. The Nation as a whole soured on the Civil Rights movement, which is why the bus riots happened in Boston, not Birmingham.
Anyways,
I finally finished up the 2016 debate. I don't see Trump losing much support after this debate: what really weakened him?
Jeb! and Walker look dead in the water. I think Rubio is going to start a lot of Bush's donors, particularly if Rubio starts rising in the polls.
Am I the only one who thought Chris Christie actually did pretty well in this debate? Unfortunately Trump stole his "I'm a jerk" shtick, but once Trump sinks, Christie can pick up some of those voters....assuming he stays in that long.
Lets agree to disagree on the "Southern Strategy" part but in my view, owning up to and putting behind things like that would help the GOP attract many more to its fold, especially for its economic positioning.
For the debate, I thought Fiorina did well, the way she was throwing red meat around.
"Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus
don't think Fiorina will go far this election. she's a product of corporate America (and not a particularly successful one) and thus turns off a huge portion of the Republican base.
she does a good job of appearing competent (even if her solutions fall apart upon closer examination), but competency isn't the most prized virtue right now-- something which applies for both parties, but holds especially true for the republicans.
There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
I don't think Carly is going anywhere, personally. Agree with Astralis, she does a good job of appearing competent, but that's really not in demand with the party base. You need to sell yourself and your vision. What the hell is Carly's vision? Ultimately, it's that she's a competent CEO and an independent maverick outsider, but she's one of the worst CEOs in American history and that's a huge weakness.
It depends whether the establishment will support her, which we won't find out for a while. If the establishment won't support her, she's screwed and Trump actually has a better chance than her.
She does a good job as media darling, at least better than Kaiscih, who REALLY ain't going anywhere.
"The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck
the funny thing is that Trump is essentially a 1950s Southern Democrat- social conservative but with quite liberal positions when it comes to economics.
and given the evidence, i believe that IS essentially the republican base.
look at the tepid support that establishment candidates such as Jeb!, and previously Romney, have gathered. Walker, who runs on his single-policy platform of union-busting, is going down in flames.
what will be REALLY interesting is if trump wins.
does the establishment GOP abandon him and just write off 2016 as a total loss? right now Club for Growth and other conservative economic organizations are frothing at the mouth and doing their damned hardest to make sure Trump doesn't make it...and knowing Trump, if he succeeds in spite of them, he'll really roast them for that opposition.
There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
But in the debate she is not playing to the comptent Coporate CEO title
She is playing the "We need conservatives" part to the hilt, with that bit about Iran and Planned Parenthood. I liked how she, with a bit of quiet and dismissive dignity put that blowhard in his place.
The one supported by the establishment is behaving with the dignity of a milquetoast schoolteacher. that is actually appropriate for the Generals Elections, but is it good enough for Primaries?
"Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus
don't think Fiorina will go far this election. she's a product of corporate America (and not a particularly successful one) and thus turns off a huge portion of the Republican base.
So the latest poll in New Hampshire has her in the lead over Trump. I'm guessing but I think women are flocking to her side after Trump insulted her face...and she adeptly slammed him for it in the debate, but I agree with you that she won't get the nomination in the end.
she does a good job of appearing competent (even if her solutions fall apart upon closer examination), but competency isn't the most prized virtue right now-- something which applies for both parties, but holds especially true for the republicans.
Yes, she's good on her feet and works a crowd pretty well. She's smart and talks a good game, a Power Point pro. But her judgement is suspect. She won't be able to gloss over the mistakes she made at HP. A candidate who says they won't talk to Putin is putting themselves in a bad position. Read my lips...
To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato
the funny thing is that Trump is essentially a 1950s Southern Democrat- social conservative but with quite liberal positions when it comes to economics.
and given the evidence, i believe that IS essentially the republican base.
Does he actually have a clearly identifiable place on the political spectrum beyond just telling different groups what they want to hear? It doesn't sound nearly as coherent as you make it out to be.
look at the tepid support that establishment candidates such as Jeb!, and previously Romney, have gathered. Walker, who runs on his single-policy platform of union-busting, is going down in flames.
This is the bit that is interesting me, especially Walker. At this distance it looks like Trump is sucking all the oxygen out of the room for a lot of other candidates. Can't shake the feeling he is actually doing Bush a favour by clearing out a few folk who might have been a threat under other circumstances.
what will be REALLY interesting is if trump wins.
does the establishment GOP abandon him and just write off 2016 as a total loss? right now Club for Growth and other conservative economic organizations are frothing at the mouth and doing their damned hardest to make sure Trump doesn't make it...and knowing Trump, if he succeeds in spite of them, he'll really roast them for that opposition.
I would have thought that if he wins any important primary contests the establishment will pile in behind Bush or another electable candidate & tell everyone who still wants a political future it isn't their year. If he wins despite that they might do just that, though it may be a moot point. The amount of blood sloshing about the party by that point will hand Hilary the win anyway.
Does he actually have a clearly identifiable place on the political spectrum beyond just telling different groups what they want to hear? It doesn't sound nearly as coherent as you make it out to be.
actually, past the whole immigration/force-mexico-to-pay-for-a-wall thing, the one other part of his platform that has been repeated over and over again is that he will not cut Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.
he even hasn't completely run away from his old statement that he supports universal healthcare.
and the polling done on this shows that these positions are very popular with the conservative base: "protect my benefits from both the establishment Republicans, corporate elite, and those people" (ie illegal immigrants).
Can't shake the feeling he is actually doing Bush a favour by clearing out a few folk who might have been a threat under other circumstances.
i think Jeb! thought this earlier in the game, but he's quite scared now.
the funny thing is that I get the feeling Hillary's feeling much the same thing with Bernie Sanders right around now, to a lesser extent.
There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
The last NH I poll I see on Politico shows Trump @ 22, Fioirina @ 11, Carson @ 18, and Kaisich @ 9.
That was sept 16.
It's also where Sanders has a slight edge on Hillary.
Looks like this gravity poll shows Trump at 18 and Fiorina at 22, so Trump is a little weaker, and Kaisich solid at 9, but Carson sank to 10. So Fiorina isn't stealing a lot of Trump votes, she's stealing Carson votes. People who want to be rebels but who won't vote Trump!
New Hampshire is weird.
"The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck
Carly Fiorina looks to be the prime beneficiary of two trends: "Not another Bush'" and "Anybody But Trump." Add Hilary's baggage, and she is a contender.
Guess that all that sweet, sweet Koch brother dollars are going to head to Rubio (I don't think they're very happy with a lot of Jeb!'s populist lite economics).
AFAIK Jeb!'s tax plan is heavy on tax cuts for the wealthy, quelle surprise.
There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
AFAIK Jeb!'s tax plan is heavy on tax cuts for the wealthy, quelle surprise.
Carried interest, which is darn near socialist for the Republicans. That Jeb! is willing to delete that (never mind that most rich people would still see their taxes go down under his ridiculous plan) is going to get some very nasty attention from Norquist (maybe not the Kochs, but Singer will have something to say about that).
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