What should India do ? Vote against Sri Lanka or for Sri Lanka ?

[commander]

So guys I have been asking this question in various forums but haven't got a satisfactory reply yet .

What should India do ? Should India vote against Sri Lanka in the war crime resolution brought in UN by USA or Should India support Sri Lanka ? Considering the fact that Sri Lanka has opened it's soil for the China recently.

I am sure many here would know the story how Sri Lanka overlooked India's help with their fight against LTTE and knowing that bringing China into Sri Lanka would piss India a lot did exactly that.

So IF India votes for Sri Lanka there are a lot of chances that Sri Lanka would do the same again. IF India votes against Sri Lanka then it will help Sri Lanka to increase the presence of China in the Indian Ocean and India again can do nothing about it.

Also IF India votes for Sri Lanka then down south in Tamil Nadu where I am from it will create a lot of issues between the state and the central govt and DMK which is a key ally for the Congress might be forced to withdraw it's support. The terms between congress and DMK is not at it's best due to the 2G spectrum and lot other issues. If it does withdraw it's support will UPA stay in power still ??

So I want to ask the great minds here 'Considering all this what Will(Should) India do ???'

Thanks in advance for reading and replying to my post :)

[Blademaster]

So guys I have been asking this question in various forums but haven't got a satisfactory reply yet .

What should India do ? Should India vote against Sri Lanka in the war crime resolution brought in UN by USA or Should India support Sri Lanka ? Considering the fact that Sri Lanka has opened it's soil for the China recently.

I am sure many here would know the story how Sri Lanka overlooked India's help with their fight against LTTE and knowing that bringing China into Sri Lanka would piss India a lot did exactly that.

So IF India votes for Sri Lanka there are a lot of chances that Sri Lanka would do the same again. IF India votes against Sri Lanka then it will help Sri Lanka to increase the presence of China in the Indian Ocean and India again can do nothing about it.

Also IF India votes for Sri Lanka then down south in Tamil Nadu where I am from it will create a lot of issues between the state and the central govt and DMK which is a key ally for the Congress might be forced to withdraw it's support. The terms between congress and DMK is not at it's best due to the 2G spectrum and lot other issues. If it does withdraw it's support will UPA stay in power still ??

So I want to ask the great minds here 'Considering all this what Will(Should) India do ???'

Thanks in advance for reading and replying to my post :)

Doesn't change the fact that Sri Lanka is only 20 miles off the coast of India and India has sufficient airlift and sealift capability to land an invasion force in Sri Lanka, even with China help. China can do shit. Only US can stand in India's way. Besides, India still has that Tamil card to play. Even though Sri Lanka has won the war against LTTE, by no means, the Tamil situation is settled. It is placated (by force) for now, but it can boil anytime and with India's help, Tamilians can successfully partition Sri Lanka and the Sri Lanka government knows this. That is not even counting the economic angle/leverage that India has. Sri Lanka knows that if she wants her economy to be successful, she has to work with India closely on economic ties. China can't even come close.

Anyhoo, it would be in the best interests if GoI remains noncommittal and keeps her cards to her chest till the very end. Leverage for all it is worth.

The chinese String of Pearls strategy is just as that, pears that can be plucked anytime.

[commander]

Doesn't change the fact that Sri Lanka is only 20 miles off the coast of India and India has sufficient airlift and sealift capability to land an invasion force in Sri Lanka, even with China help. China can do shit. Only US can stand in India's way. Besides, India still has that Tamil card to play. Even though Sri Lanka has won the war against LTTE, by no means, the Tamil situation is settled. It is placated (by force) for now, but it can boil anytime and with India's help, Tamilians can successfully partition Sri Lanka and the Sri Lanka government knows this. That is not even counting the economic angle/leverage that India has. Sri Lanka knows that if she wants her economy to be successful, she has to work with India closely on economic ties. China can't even come close.

Anyhoo, it would be in the best interests if GoI remains noncommittal and keeps her cards to her chest till the very end. Leverage for all it is worth.

The chinese String of Pearls strategy is just as that, pears that can be plucked anytime.

So Blademaster what do YOU think ? Should India vote FOR (or AGAINST) Sri Lanka ?

[Blademaster]

So Blademaster what do YOU think ? Should India vote FOR (or AGAINST) Sri Lanka ?

I think India should wait till the last moment and see where her cards lay and play accordingly. Try to cut a deal with Sri Lanka before the vote. If Sri Lanka refuses to play ball, then show them what it means not to play ball with India.

[Double Edge]

I am sure many here would know the story how Sri Lanka overlooked India's help with their fight against LTTE and knowing that bringing China into Sri Lanka would piss India a lot did exactly that.

Recall reading somewhere that the Chinese were called in only after Sri Lanka asked us.

Sri Lankans would prolly charge we did not do enough in the first place and that they had no choice but to go to the Chinese.

Our hands were tied to a certain extent. We looked the other way when they went ahead with the LTTE cleanup. No domestic opposiiton can say we targetted our own.

I cannot answer your main question, btw.

[commander]

Recall reading somewhere that the Chinese were called in only after Sri Lanka asked us.

May I ask for a source for the above claim ?

[Double Edge]

Can't recall where i heard it first, maybe a couple of years ago. But it stuck out against the usual narrative which is what you said.

here's a couple of articles that mention it.

Rock blocks Sri Lanka's flagship port | Atimes | Aug 30 2011

The Rajapaksa government is reported to have offered the project to India first but Delhi did not show interest. The Chinese then grabbed the offer.

Delhi's failure to clinch the Hambantota deal has come under considerable fire from Indian security analysts. "When Delhi slept over Colombo's invitation to build a new port at Hambantota, China stepped in," noted strategic affairs analyst Raja Mohan lamented.

Indeed, India's lethargy did leave the space open for China to step in to construct a port at Hambantota.

India refused to build Hambantota port: Rajapaksa | Rediff | March 18, 2010

"Now take Hambantota port. It was offered to India first. I was desperate for development work. But ultimately the Chinese agreed to build it.--Rajapaksa

Agree ?

[Blademaster]

Can't recall where i heard it first, maybe a couple of years ago. But it stuck out against the usual narrative which is what you said.

here's a couple of articles that mention it.

Rock blocks Sri Lanka's flagship port | Atimes | Aug 30 2011


India refused to build Hambantota port: Rajapaksa | Rediff | March 18, 2010


Agree ?

GoI was rather stupid not to take up Sri Lanka's offer although it meant that one of the southern Indian ports would suffer, it would give great strategic advantage to India to keep Sri Lanka free of any geo-strategical disentanglement.

[commander]

Can't recall where i heard it first, maybe a couple of years ago. But it stuck out against the usual narrative which is what you said.

here's a couple of articles that mention it.

Rock blocks Sri Lanka's flagship port | Atimes | Aug 30 2011


India refused to build Hambantota port: Rajapaksa | Rediff | March 18, 2010


Agree ?

Thank you very much for the sources :) I stand corrected...

[Double Edge]

This article tries to explain the rationale behind India's vote against Sri Lanka.

Jyoti Malhotra: In Sri Lanka reversal, India goes with US | Business Standard | Mar 23 2012

Three years ago, Delhi had backed Colombo against the US. What has changed now?
Jyoti Malhotra / Mar 23, 2012, 00:03 IST

India will vote at the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva today, March 23, against Sri Lanka and alongside the US, in what amounts to an unprecedented critique against a fellow South Asian nation with which it has a long, intimate history spanning several millennia.

But to really understand why India is now willing to publicly chastise Sri Lanka in a multi-lateral forum, one has to return to the last days of the Sri Lankan army’s civil war against the Liberation of Tamil Tigers Eelam (LTTE) in April-May 2009.

In recent weeks, the British media has led the charge against Colombo for wilfully participating in severe human rights violations against Tamil civilians caught in the crossfire at the time.

Significantly, this is a charge that India never substantiated, implicitly supporting Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s stand that the demonic LTTE terrorists needed to be decimated. Privately, there was much distress in Delhi over the killing of innocent Tamils but officials insisted, with a shrug, that “collateral damage” was, unfortunately, part of any war.

So what describes this dramatic turnaround in India’s posture? Here is a story confirmed by sources both in Delhi and in Colombo and that must finally be told.

It seems that in the dying days of the civil war, which ended with the killing of LTTE chief Prabhakaran, some western countries led by the US, sent word to Colombo that the Sri Lankan army should allow Prabhakaran to “escape”. In fact, an escape vessel was said to be waiting on Sri Lanka’s northern shores, around Jaffna, waiting to take Prabhakaran and his family on board.

In Colombo, the fury and chaos had to be seen to be believed, said the sources with knowledge of the event. Just then, New Delhi quietly moved its own warship, still in its own waters but close enough to the Sri Lankan frontline, sending out the unmistakable signal that it was fully behind Rajapaksa’s determination to finish the LTTE.

India’s argument, of course, was a simple one: Prabhakaran had masterminded the assassination of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and could not be allowed to escape. Over the decades in Sri Lanka, the LTTE had killed scores of moderate Tamil politicians, those who had dared to disagree. Now Prabhakaran had to suffer the consequences.

India’s dramatic behind-the-scenes intervention in 2009 in Sri Lanka meant that it had stared down the mighty US, even though it had been forced to hold its own nose from the stench that emanated from the Tamil killings.

In fact, the trio that ran India’s Sri Lanka policy at the time – then National Security Advisor and now Governor of West Bengal M K Narayanan, then Foreign Secretary and now National Security Advisor Shiv Shanker Menon, as well as then Defence Secretary (now retired) Vijay Singh – kept in close touch with Rajapaksa and his all-powerful brothers, Basil and Gotabhaya Rajapaksa. Today, too, one is the Cabinet minister for economic development and the other the defence secretary in Sri Lanka.

Clearly, Delhi had helped stiffen Rajapaksa’s spine in 2009 against the interference of the so-called Western bloc because it was also protecting its own, amorphous sphere of influence in the region.

In exchange, Rajapaksa committed to India that he would transform Sri Lanka’s unitary form of government and devolve real power to the northern and eastern provinces, where Tamils are in a majority. His predecessor, J R Jayewardene had made a similar vow to Rajiv Gandhi in 1987, the so-called 13th Amendment. Rajapaksa, in fact, was said to have promised not only to pass the 13th Amendment but also pursue the “13th Amendment-plus” approach.

Three years have gone by, and despite Delhi’s entreaties, Rajapaksa hardly seems closer to keeping his word. A Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC) offered a way forward, but Rajapaksa’s reaction was to create a parliamentary select committee to discuss its recommendations, not announce a plan for peace.

If the Sri Lankan president believes today that Delhi’s vote against Colombo in Geneva is being forced on Manmohan Singh’s Congress party by alliance partners like the DMK (who need to assuage its Tamil voter base in Tamil Nadu), it will be making a big mistake.

There is genuine distress in Delhi about Rajapaksa refusing to learn the only real lesson from the civil war and his victory in the elections that followed: the Tamils are also his people and he must reach out to them to understand their deep insecurities about being second-class citizens in their own country.

If Rajapaksa can come up with a time-bound plan to devolve real power, including to the police, in the north and the east, he will go down in history as the first Sri Lankan leader that contained both Sinhala and Tamil nationalism.

In fact, Delhi will be the first to shower Sri Lanka with aid and grants and anything else it wants, just like the two patrol vessels it sold Colombo only last month.

However, if Rajapaksa pleads for time and invokes the right-wing Sinhala view that brands the entire Tamil community in various shades of the LTTE, his stupendous victory over the Tigers in 2009 will soon become a hollow one.

As for the short-term gain of playing the Chinese off against India, that’s not going to work either. India’s far too big and far too close. Even the Americans, their influence already in relative decline, are beginning to understand Delhi’s exercise of benign power.

[antimony]

High time Indian foreign policy grew a pair...

This was the right thing to do. Let India take up China and Pakistan on her own strengths, not by pandering to to the wrong people.

[Bigfella]

I can't help but think that the hubris of the Rajapaksa brothers will eventually catch up with them. Right now they are riding high & are clearly trying to entrench themselves in power indefinately. Acts like imprisoning Gen. Fonseka & treating Tamils like a conquered enemy rather than citizens to be integrated back into Sri Lankan society will com back to bite them in time. There were things that happened in the last days of the war that need to be examined & explained. If those actions require punishment then so be it. It is good to see that India has the eyes to see this & the backbone to act.

[667medic]

I was reading the opinion of the "think tankies" at BharatRakshak regarding India's vote :bang:

First people there have an exaggerated understanding of India's power and importance. Then surprisingly they were worried that tiny Sri Lanka would now become China's pet like their other friend. This was then followed by Tamil Nadu bashing about the selfish Tamils who were holding the nation hostage. Seriously guys my understanding is that India is a federal nation and the opinion of the individual states matter. Are you guys saying that that 20 million Sri Lankans are more important that 60 million Tamils. India has been feeding carrot to Sri Lanka ever since Rajivgandhi's assassination, it is hight time that she uses the stick.....

The opinion in BR seems to be that TamilNadu is the soft underbelly of India and the Western countries led by USA want to use it as a back door entry to exploit India. In fact there was one guy who even went to the extent of saying that the collateral damage was acceptable for the destruction of LTTE or else Tamil Nadu might have turned into something like Swat Valley of Pakistan.

[Blademaster]

I was reading the opinion of the "think tankies" at BharatRakshak regarding India's vote :bang:

First people there have an exaggerated understanding of India's power and importance. Then surprisingly they were worried that tiny Sri Lanka would now become China's pet like their other friend. This was then followed by Tamil Nadu bashing about the selfish Tamils who were holding the nation hostage. Seriously guys my understanding is that India is a federal nation and the opinion of the individual states matter. Are you guys saying that that 20 million Sri Lankans are more important that 60 million Tamils. India has been feeding carrot to Sri Lanka ever since Rajivgandhi's assassination, it is hight time that she uses the stick.....

The opinion in BR seems to be that TamilNadu is the soft underbelly of India and the Western countries led by USA want to use it as a back door entry to exploit India. In fact there was one guy who even went to the extent of saying that the collateral damage was acceptable for the destruction of LTTE or else Tamil Nadu might have turned into something like Swat Valley of Pakistan.

The only thing I am worried about Sri Lanka is that they can be used as a springboard into India or dominate India through naval supremacy and basing in Sri Lanka from Big powers such as USA or China. Other than that, I don't really care. I prefer that Sri Lanka not use itself as a staging base or base of operations for any power except Sri Lanka.

[667medic]

The only thing I am worried about Sri Lanka is that they can be used as a springboard into India or dominate India through naval supremacy and basing in Sri Lanka from Big powers such as USA or China. Other than that, I don't really care. I prefer that Sri Lanka not use itself as a staging base or base of operations for any power except Sri Lanka.

Do you seriously believe that Sri Lanka will piss off the local giant in favour of powers who are thousands of miles away. Even Rajapaksa doesn't believe that he can take on India which is why they scrapped the Mig-29 deals. I think it is high time that Indians get out of the 1980's mentality.

BTW I am curious about the attitude of the Indians from the North towards SL Tamils. Are they aware of what is happening in SL or they don't care because of racial issues. I am asking this because even here in WB, people seems to ignore SL Tamil issue as compared to other Indian affairs....