Worst-case scenario w/bin Laden

[Chogy]

Rather than tack this onto the endless "bin Laden is dead" thread, I'm hoping a new one would promote an interesting discussion.

On Pak defense, there is some outrage, and a desire to have seen Pakistani forces engage the mission using whatever means, on land and in the air.

This mission was planned for months. Undoubtedly, those in charge imagined any number of outcomes that would be less than satisfactory. And probably, one of them was that yes, the Pakistani response would be fast, violent, and with mass.

Scenario 1: "ST6 enters the compound. But 200 Pakistani troops are deployed and the compound is surrounded. A vicious fight erupts, the Blackhawks are destroyed, and the team is trapped."

Scenario 2: "Exfiltration... PAF alert barns launch F-16's and it appears they are 5 minutes from engaging the helicopters."

What sort of QRF would any of you, as mission commander, have on standby? Would you have F-15 (or perhaps F-22) orbiting in Afghani airspace, ready to engage the PAF? Would you have orbiting armed drones? AC-130's? Most sensitive politically, would you have Chinooks stuffed with troops to engage any ground forces that might attack ST6?

To what extent were these prepared?

[Mihais]

Given the limits of the scenario,the issue is simple in theory,complicated in practice.40 Seals can hold for a long time in an urban environment.Several hours at least.
The QRF in this case is not USAF.It is the White House calling Rawalpindi and ordering them to stand down or face war.Talibans also defended Bin Laden and they faced war.No double standards.Destroy their military.And let the Indians finish the rest.

Is this huge?Yes,it is.But it would be duly deserved.

Perhaps Pakistanis are suicidal.But more likely they seem to have an inflated sense of their own importance and suffer from overconfidence.

[Stitch]

I would probably have F-22's in orbit just over the A-stan/Pak border with tanker support, ready to engage any hostiles (PAF F-16's) that look like they might be threat to ST6. I would have a couple of U-boats (AC-130U's) headed for the target, not too far behind the assault ships, but able to be recalled if the mission goes as planned. Don't think I'd use A-10's since a.) friendlies would probably be danger-close to the enemy, and b.) any weapons the A-10 could carry would probably be over-kill (even the GAU-8A). And, finally, I'd have a couple of MH-47G's ready on-station to exfil the Team if the Blackhawks go down.

[Red Seven]

Generally, in raid TTP an assault element is supported by a security element. While the former moves on the main objective of the raid, the latter prevents enemy reinforcements from reaching the target area, covers withdrawal of the assault element and acts as rear guard of the raid force. In planning a raid of the type we've just seen in Pakistan, with some months to prepare, I suspect an ample security element, whether in the form of ground personnel, gunships, etc., was assigned to the mission. I also suspect that planners had a pretty good idea that local Pak forces would be disinclined to interfere. I don't know about you, but I'd be a bit reluctant to jump out of bed and charge blindly into all hell breaking loose up the street unless I had some idea of who was shooting at who. There were no Pak forces requesting help, so there must have considerable confusion at the local garrisons.

I think in the UBL case anybody who'd been stupid enough to interfere would have been smoked before they got within 75 yards of that compound. Besides, some Navy SEALs will tell you, as they check the tan and the Oakleys in the mirror, that 200 Paks are no match for 10 SEALs. And the crazy thing is, they are probably right.

[gunnut]

I'd imagine that house was under surveilance from the air, on the ground, even from the satellite, for at least half a year. We would know a blade of grass being clipped the moment it happens. I doubt the Pakistanis could move a garrison into the vicinity without us know about it. They could use the cadets as ad hoc security force for the location. But would they really want to sacrifice these cadets to the SEALs? They aren't as expendible as regular army grunts.

I was wondering what type of air cover we had during the raid. I would not be comfortable without adequate air cover if I were planning this mission. F-22s might have been in the region but no one knew about them because they are a little bit hard to detect. Had Pakistani fighters scrambed to intercept our helos, I suppose a phone call from our higher ups to their higher ups requesting them to stand down would be in order. Of course at the end of the request the words "or else" would be attached to show we mean business.

In the end, both sides would downplay the incident. Both sides would plead ignorance and deny knowledge.

I'm just glad that we suffered zero casualty and the Pakistanis suffered zero casualty. AQ, on the other hand, lost big.

[Cactus]

I doubt the Pakistanis could move a garrison into the vicinity without us know about it. They could use the cadets as ad hoc security force for the location. But would they really want to sacrifice these cadets to the SEALs? They aren't as expendible as regular army grunts.

Though not as close to the contact point as the Pakistani Military Academy, there were at least six infantry battalions in Abbottabad. Abbottabad is the home of the Baloch Regiment and the Frontier Force Rifles Regimental Depots, and also one brigade from the 2nd (?) Division. Like you said, Abbottabad is a Peace Posting and they don't maintain the sort of readiness or mobility to respond within 40 minutes window. But if the operation had gone pear-shaped and dragged on for hours (worst-case scenario), you have to consider a fraction of all these troops pouring in (not just 200 men).

[citanon]

Though not as close to the contact point as the Pakistani Military Academy, there were at least six infantry battalions in Abbottabad. Abbottabad is the home of the Baloch Regiment and the Frontier Force Rifles Regimental Depots, and also one brigade from the 2nd (?) Division. Like you said, Abbottabad is a Peace Posting and they don't maintain the sort of readiness or mobility to respond within 40 minutes window. But if the operation had gone pear-shaped and dragged on for hours (worst-case scenario), you have to consider a fraction of all these troops pouring in (not just 200 men).

Before any type of counterassault could be mounted against the SEALs the Pakistani force would have to be sure who they are. I would bet that every effort was made to frustrate the timely identification of the SEAL assault force. Without positive ID and a counter-assault plan, and with the operation ending in less than 1 hour, it seems unlikely that the Pakistanis could do more than establishing a security perimeter and scrambling jets in response. With the intelligence groundwork establishing the size and real-time disposition of potential counter-assault forces around Abbottabad, and with adequate understanding of the decision making process of the potential opfor, the SEAL assault would be a high risk operation, but not a gamble.

Regarding the air elements, I would guess that there were more than one type of classified LO assets in the air space. Also remember that the US has perfect information on the electronics of the F-16. Had the Pakistani F-16s gotten any trace of the helicopters, the electronic countermeasures targeting them would probably have left the pilots ears ringing for days from all the beeps and warnings going off in their cockpits. Thus, I think it was likely that a kinetic kill would not have been necessary.

Also, I think it's possible that a B-2 was orbiting as a backup in case Bin Laden was positively identified but could not be reached by the ground force.

[Agnostic Muslim]

Scenario 1: "ST6 enters the compound. But 200 Pakistani troops are deployed and the compound is surrounded. A vicious fight erupts, the Blackhawks are destroyed, and the team is trapped."

Why would ST6 not surrender and the US political and military leadership immediately contact the Pakistani leadership to press for OBL's release as well as go public with the fact that OBL had been found/killed in Pakistan by US forces and everyone was in Pakistani custody?

Scenario 2: "Exfiltration... PAF alert barns launch F-16's and it appears they are 5 minutes from engaging the helicopters."

Why would ST6 not surrender and the US political and military leadership immediately contact the Pakistani leadership to press for OBL's release as well as go public with the fact that OBL had been found/killed in Pakistan by US forces and everyone was in Pakistani custody?

[Agnostic Muslim]

Destroy their military.And let the Indians finish the rest.

Over OBL's body and a couple dozen SEAL's who would likely be returned?

Not likely.

[Agnostic Muslim]

Besides, some Navy SEALs will tell you, as they check the tan and the Oakleys in the mirror, that 200 Paks are no match for 10 SEALs. And the crazy thing is, they are probably right.

Wow - you even have that old Pakistani Army officer beat who argued that '1 Pakistani soldier was equal to 10 Indians'

Heck, you are talking '20 to 1'.:Dancing-Banana:

[InExile]

I think Pakistan would never risk a confrontation with the US like this. They are not suicidal.

[Agnostic Muslim]

I think Pakistan would never risk a confrontation with the US like this. They are not suicidal.

Why would the US push the issue to a confrontation given that they stand to gain nothing from it either, even if they are capable of destroying the Pakistani military?

How do we know that the reason the PAF jets never intercepted the Blackhawks was because the US did in fact contact Pakistan
(1) When the operation at the compound was underway and it was a matter of time when Pakistani forces would arrive.
(2) When the PAF jets were scrambled.

[citanon]

Why would ST6 not surrender and the US political and military leadership immediately contact the Pakistani leadership to press for OBL's release as well as go public with the fact that OBL had been found/killed in Pakistan by US forces and everyone was in Pakistani custody?


Why would ST6 not surrender and the US political and military leadership immediately contact the Pakistani leadership to press for OBL's release as well as go public with the fact that OBL had been found/killed in Pakistan by US forces and everyone was in Pakistani custody?

ST6 does not surrender. They will try to kill the entire OPFOR. Apparently a heavy US Navy strike force was readied as air support in case of combat.

The OBAMA presidency will not survive the scenario you outlined above. Ask yourself this, what does Obama value more? Being president for 4 more years or the lives of a couple hundred, or couple of thousand Pakistanis? The answer is obvious, and you can keep adding zeros behind that number.

[citanon]

Why would the US push the issue to a confrontation given that they stand to gain nothing from it either, even if they are capable of destroying the Pakistani military?

How do we know that the reason the PAF jets never intercepted the Blackhawks was because the US did in fact contact Pakistan
(1) When the operation at the compound was underway and it was a matter of time when Pakistani forces would arrive.
(2) When the PAF jets were scrambled.

They would not have contacted the Pakistanis to maximize the duration of uncertainty regarding the identity of the US assault force.

The US knew the exact characteristics and programming of the F-16s' radars. Once the choppers were on their way out, the F-16s never had prayer of finding them.

[Double Edge]

On Pak defense, there is some outrage, and a desire to have seen Pakistani forces engage the mission using whatever means, on land and in the air.

They have a problem with their govt, they're not the only ones

At the end of the day drone attacks take place inside Pakistan, what is the difference here ?

This mission was planned for months. Undoubtedly, those in charge imagined any number of outcomes that would be less than satisfactory. And probably, one of them was that yes, the Pakistani response would be fast, violent, and with mass.

I kinda doubt POTUS would have gone ahead in that case. Too high profile to screw up so am sure there was an amzing amount of due diligence done. he's got his 2012 election to win.

You got the green flag before and this is why the GoP have done their best to obscure it from their domestic audience.

What sort of QRF would any of you, as mission commander, have on standby? Would you have F-15 (or perhaps F-22) orbiting in Afghani airspace, ready to engage the PAF? Would you have orbiting armed drones? AC-130's? Most sensitive politically, would you have Chinooks stuffed with troops to engage any ground forces that might attack ST6?

To what extent were these prepared?

None, there would be no mission. You're not interested in getting into a another war, at least not yet.