Syria and the collapse

[cyppok]

What is at stake if Syria's regime falls - CSMonitor.com

Good article for a read.

What is at stake if Syria's regime falls

Syria is a gateway for Iran's influence in the Middle East, but it has also been a relatively predictable neighbor for Israel. If Assad's regime comes unhinged, that could all change.

By Nicholas Blanford, Correspondent / March 28, 2011
Beirut, Lebanon

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is not alone in keeping a wary eye on the two weeks of protests in his country that have left dozens dead and show little sign of abating.

If Syria collapses into Libya-style chaos or Mr. Assad is ousted like his counterparts in Tunisia and Egypt, it will have major strategic ramifications on Syria’s close regional allies – Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas – and possibly alter the balance of power in the Middle East. Even opponent Israel is watching the unrest with some trepidation, as Syria has been a hostile but predictable neighbor.

I actually think if Syria would have a civil war that would be fairly violent particularly in light of how multi-cultural it is with respect to different regions.

The country has been ruled by the Baath Party since 1963 and by the Assad dynasty since 1970. Although the Syrian state is nominally secular, the Assad clan and the core of the regime are drawn from the minority Alawite sect (an offshoot of Shiite Islam), which accounts for about 15 percent of the population in the majority Sunni-populated country.

What Syria's neighbors want

If Syria falls into turmoil, analysts say that its neighbors – chiefly Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, but also the US and possibly even Israel – will try to influence an outcome that suits their respective interests:

Translation it would be a major cluster****.

Syria had a major drought recently with a lot of damage to wheat crops in the north. My feeling is that the whole mid-east upsurgence is due to food prices skyrocketing due to supply shrinkage.

Syria: 2009/10 Wheat
http://www.thebioenergysite.com/arti...tion-june-2010

Syria
Disease to hurt Turkey’s wheat crop this year - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review
Turkish farmers plant more grain as prices increase - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review
Turkey
for 2008, 09, and 10 it seems the situation did not improve much and considering the demand in the region remaining constant and growing...
Also USDA has been overestimating a lot lately and its' forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt.

USDA at this time is estimating Syria’s 2010/11 wheat crop at 3.75 million tons, down 1.25 million or 25 percent from last month; Turkey’s 2010/11 wheat crop at 17.5 million tons, down 1.0 million or 5 percent from last month; Lebanon’s 2010/11 wheat crop at 0.1 million tons, down 0.03 million or 23 percent. Harvest activities in the Middle East are ongoing and will continue in highland areas of Turkey and Iran through August.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2011/03/28/Crisis-spirals-as-Assad-readies-TV-address/UPI-23011301297400/?dailybrief

DAMASCUS, Syria, March 28 (UPI) -- The Syrian crisis heightened Monday morning as President Bashar Assad prepared to address the nation amid a possible split among his closest advisers.

"It's very tense here, very tense," a Western diplomat in Damascus told The New York Times. "You can feel it in the air."

Assad -- who bragged to The Wall Street Journal two months ago he would not face a popular uprising like the one that toppled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarack because he was "very closely linked to the beliefs of the people" -- would address the nation on state television "within 24 to 48 hours," a presidential adviser said Sunday.

[Double Edge]

My feeling is that the whole mid-east upsurgence is due to food prices skyrocketing due to supply shrinkage.

Yeah, i'd go along with that. This is what mainly provided the tinder for a spark to turn into a raging flame.

So if Syria goes up, it ends up like Lebanon basically.

Does that mean the west will have any interest in intervening, doubtful. But if they don't then they cede ground to others. It will be a tricky situation.

Better might be for Assad to stay for everyone concerned.

[Dreadnought]

So neither of you two think it could possibly be more then just that?

Hows about Economies?
Sanctions that have been placed upon some nations have caused much of their economies to slow and in some places worse. The conditions with sanctions in Iran have caused ripples into Pakistan and other nations who are used to doing business as usual but are not now.

Maybe even better if those groups were to topple the regime as well, declare democracy, hold true and fair elections and perhaps improve conditions for their people. One has to look at it as the oil that makes these nations their capital earnings dont necessarily share this fortune with the poor of these countries.

Some of these countries are just getting tired of dictators and dictative regimes. They want a choice in their futures and they want improvements in their lives and for their childrens and they dont want a governament that jams their connections to the outside world via media, internet or denies them free and open speech, elections and even criticize the governemnet without reprisal.

Im thinking the time of controlling the people all of the time is coming to an end slowly but surely and I think we are only witnessing the beginning.

What would happen if the regime was toppled and the elected leaders refuse to back Hamas and Hezbollah or become unfriendly to Iran?

Lets think positive here.

[dave lukins]

Some of these countries are just getting tired of dictators and dictative regimes. They want a choice in their futures and they want improvements in their lives and for their children's.

Lets think positive here.

Is that too much to ask? Is that not the vision of all parents for their children and for their children's children?

[cyppok]

Dreadnought the food prices rose about 50% in the last 2-3 years in Egypt bread wise. It is not them being tired of dictators its the enormity of the life being unaffordable that's pushing riots by the people whom have nothing left to loose. They will continue to riot even after regime changes occur.

There have been lots of droughts in most major global producers in the past 5 years even USA is effected. So far Canada seems the only one with normative outputs remaining in place. Australia to Argentina, Brazil, India, Russia, China, Germany (flood dmg), Ukraine, Black Sea grain producers ETC... are all having problems and wheat output has declined.

Syria going the way of Lebanon is unlikely there is no concrete division as was in the Lebanon constitution prescribed. Best out come would be if Syria becomes a confederation with weak federal and strong regional governments. The problem is if the regions begin economic wars where they try to control good flow or taxes on good flow that is to the detriment of other regions and it could kaleidoscope from there, in Lebanon most have access to the sea and or borders.

[Dreadnought]

Dreadnought the food prices rose about 50% in the last 2-3 years in Egypt bread wise. It is not them being tired of dictators its the enormity of the life being unaffordable that's pushing riots by the people whom have nothing left to loose. They will continue to riot even after regime changes occur.

There have been lots of droughts in most major global producers in the past 5 years even USA is effected. So far Canada seems the only one with normative outputs remaining in place. Australia to Argentina, Brazil, India, Russia, China, Germany (flood dmg), Ukraine, Black Sea grain producers ETC... are all having problems and wheat output has declined.

Syria going the way of Lebanon is unlikely there is no concrete division as was in the Lebanon constitution prescribed. Best out come would be if Syria becomes a confederation with weak federal and strong regional governments. The problem is if the regions begin economic wars where they try to control good flow or taxes on good flow that is to the detriment of other regions and it could kaleidoscope from there, in Lebanon most have access to the sea and or borders.

I agree with higher prices, but disagree with the US being in that group, you forget your governement in some cases pays farmers not to grow. Its been that way for years.

From what reports account Bashars regime is being the target of the angry poor people. Who are not just angry about food prices but also the 1963 "Emergency Law" which has been in place since Bashars family took power and would not permit freedom of assembly nor freedom to criticise the regime, detain suspects indefinately and without a court and hold civilians in military courts and jam the countries communications alltogether. Times are tough for all economies right now which puts overpressure on the poor of these countries and as many believe one man or in certain cases of regime could not possibly be the smartest of their country nor know whats best for that country to grow but stay stagnate without his approval. It seems the people are tired of being treated like the children.

These people literally have have nothing more to loose as far as being citizens of Syria.

I guess all of these countries in the ME are going to have to grow a bit as far as affording Rights to their own people they wish to rule without elections or representation. Good Luck in that.

[cyppok]

I listed the wheat producers that are suffering reductions in wheat output due to droughts or other circumstances. The US is in that group because there is a drought in Texas(panhandle) which affects some parts of certain other states around as well and will impact wheat production this year. [the subsidies play a role of course but right now growing is more profitable than the subsidies I would bet.]

Worst Texas Drought in 44 Years Damaging Wheat Crop, Reducing Cattle Herds - Bloomberg
It is not as bad as the drought in India or elsewhere but is still bad. On the margin all these production cuts in wheat affect everyone globally even the US because we pay global prices for food more or less (minus transport costs and barrier costs etc...).

[Aryajet]

Dreadnought the food prices rose about 50% in the last 2-3 years in Egypt bread wise. It is not them being tired of dictators its the enormity of the life being unaffordable that's pushing riots by the people whom have nothing left to loose. They will continue to riot even after regime changes occur

utter insensitive remark.

They are not rioting b/c they are hungry. They are actually fighting for their Rights which their human compatriots in free world are enjoying.

Like many other closed societies in the world they don't have over 700 Cable and 50 FTA channels on top of that so they turn to internet, that is why M. Eastern populations are among the highest internet users in the world.

A 25 years old M.E youth has been using internet his/her entire life, the only open window to knowledge and daily life in free world which their oppressive and tyrannic governments are incapable of shutting it.

Nowadays an average M.E youth knows very well that human dignity, civil liberty and basic human rights for free speech, thoughts, press, peaceful assembly are all inalienable rights of any human being and s/he is ready to fight in order to fulfill h/er wish even if sacrificing life becomes inevitable to achieve the objective, just like 1000s who have done it in this past 2 years. They were not hungry.

[Double Edge]

utter insensitive remark.

They are not rioting b/c they are hungry. They are actually fighting for their Rights which their human compatriots in free world are enjoying.

This would imply the political reasons are bigger than economic ones.

Bouazizi is credited for being the spark that kicked it off in Tunisia. This was a university graduate that had to make do with selling fruit and when he lost that privlege life wasn't worth living.

Why woud the rest of the country kick off if they did not identify with his position.

Sorry, but from what i'm seeing here economy is the dominating factor, followed by unemployment which then gets channeled into political demands.

Iran in 2009, had more of a political motive, a sham election as a catalyst that got ppl out into the streets, the bad economy sustained it, exacerbated further by sanctions.

Even in the free countries, a bad economy spells doom for the incumbent party anywhere.

Like many other closed societies in the world they don't have over 700 Cable and 50 FTA channels on top of that so they turn to internet, that is why M. Eastern populations are among the highest internet users in the world.

A 25 years old M.E youth has been using internet his/her entire life, the only open window to knowledge and daily life in free world which their oppressive and tyrannic governments are incapable of shutting it.

Internet penetration in these countries is less than ten percent. Internet gets too much credit for being influential here. Mobile phones as well as satellite tv like al jazeera are more widespread. Still am not sure how much modern tools contributed.

Think back to 1989, where was the internet and cellphones in the warsaw pact countries yet the message got across. Think back to revolutions earlier and it turns out that lack of modern communications did not stop them from happening.

Civil rights movements in the US in the 60s and the Russian one in 1917. What drove these movements ? better opportunity. That's economic at the core and using political means to achieve those goals.

Nowadays an average M.E youth knows very well that human dignity, civil liberty and basic human rights for free speech, thoughts, press, peaceful assembly are all inalienable rights of any human being and s/he is ready to fight in order to fulfill h/er wish even if sacrificing life becomes inevitable to achieve the objective, just like 1000s who have done it in this past 2 years. They were not hungry.

This would be only the educated elites in the city. Tunisia has more of these than other countries. But the numbers on the streets are more just common folk tired of the present system that did not get them anywhere.

The economies of these countries are too anemic for their own good. Egypt's economy is one quarter the size of Turkey for the same amount of people. That's completely shocking. The arab world needs to generate a 100 million jobs within the next decade.

[Aryajet]

Double edge reply,

Thanks for indepth analysis. I should have been more clear, I was talking about recent uprising in "Middle East" where we have seen 5 of them ever since summer of 2009 and geographically Tunisia, Egypt and Libya are not part of M.E.

Granted, economic is a decisive factor but it is not all of it. I don't believe people in Bahrain with sizable GDP are opposing their Gov. for economic reasons.

[Double Edge]

I was talking about recent uprising in "Middle East" where we have seen 5 of them ever since summer of 2009 and geographically Tunisia, Egypt and Libya are not part of M.E.

Ah, you are making a distinction between the asian & african countries. With the exception of Yemen, there is a case that the uprisings in the gulf region would be more political than economic in the countires that are more well off than others.

Which 5 uprisings are you referring to ?
Bahrain
Iran
Yemen
Syria
..Oman, Kuwait these did not amount to much
Saudi's prevented the Mar 13 get together and then gave everybody a nice gift.

Granted, economic is a decisive factor but it is not all of it. I don't believe people in Bahrain with sizable GDP are opposing their Gov. for economic reasons.

Agree, more inclusion in state affairs. Political rather than economic in this case.

[Aryajet]

Ah, you are making a distinction between the asian & african countries. With the exception of Yemen, there is a case that the uprisings in the gulf region would be more political than economic in the countires that are more well off than others.

Which 5 uprisings are you referring to ?
Bahrain
Iran
Yemen
Syria
..Oman, Kuwait these did not amount to much
Saudi's prevented the Mar 13 get together and then gave everybody a nice gift.


Agree, more inclusion in state affairs. Political rather than economic in this case.

D.E, Sir!

The 4 nations you mentioned + IMHO Oman is percolating as well, and regarding KSA and Q8 I don't believe sizable protest will emerge any time soon.

[cyppok]

utter insensitive remark.

This is not about being politically correct. I call it the way I see it you have every right to disagree but when food prices double and your income remains the same or falls and you cant afford food people go out on the streets...

[Aryajet]

This is not about being politically correct. I call it the way I see it you have every right to disagree but when food prices double and your income remains the same or falls and you cant afford food people go out on the streets...

Sir,
Even if hunger is the only motive for them to pour into the streets and peacefully protest, still should not be called riot IMHO, unless we see them looting dept. store, banks and other public and private properties.

[gunnut]

Should we bomb Syria to protect the people from being killed by the government?

What makes Libyans worth of protection but Syrians not?