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Published: May 28, 2010
Updated: May 29, 2010 3:26 p.m.
Crime rates down amid weak economy. Why?
By SALVADOR HERNANDEZ
THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
Bed space in Orange County jails remains plentiful as crime rates in the county's biggest cities – and across the country – continue to fall despite a struggling economy and high unemployment rate.
Across the country, violent crime fell 5.5 percent last year, while property crime dropped 4.9 percent, according to new data from the FBI. It was the third straight year that both types of crime decreased nationwide. Law enforcement officials and crime experts are scratching their heads at the unexpected drop in crime even as the unemployment rate hovers around 10 percent nationally.
"It kind of shows how much we don't know," said Georgia Spiropoulos, assistant professor of criminal justice at Cal State Fullerton. "Crime rates are just in the basement compared to what we're used to."
In Orange County's jails, the drop is visible, with the inmate population down 25 percent in just over two years. (Click here to see jail populations 2000-2010)
In 2007, the average monthly population at the county's three jails was 6,379, according to the sheriff's department. The population has decreased steadily, and so far this year, the average population is 4,733.
"Two years ago, I wouldn't have predicted we'd have the numbers we have now," said Assistant Sheriff Jay LeFlore, who heads custody operations for the department.
According to date from the FBI, violent crime fell in 2009 in five of Orange County's biggest cities, including Anaheim, Costa Mesa, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach and Orange. The city of Orange saw the biggest drop, with a 27 percent decrease in violent crimes reported.
Fullerton saw a 28 percent increase in violent crime. Irvine, which has the lowest violent crime per capita in the country, saw an increase of 17 percent.
Santa Ana reported the most violent crime incidents of any Orange County city at 1,726 in 2009, exactly the same number as in 2008.
Overall, violent crime in the county's eight largest cities fell 4 percent last year, according to the FBI statistics.
The drop in crime has meant a decline in the jail population that has translated into significant financial impacts. In December, the East Compound of the James A. Musick Facility was closed down, eliminating almost 300 beds and saving the sheriff's department about $1 million. In February 2009, officials shut a tent facility at the jail, saving another $1.2 million and taking out more than 600 beds.
This month, officials have shut down the fourth floor of the Central Men's jail, freeing 30 deputies who will be relocated to fill in vacancies and cut down on overtime hours at the jail, LeFlore said.
The closures are a response not just to the shrinking number of inmates, but to budget cuts that have occurred at the sheriff's department, including layoffs.
The decreased population also means that the Inmate Welfare Fund, which funds services for inmates such as educational, drug and behavioral classes, had a $1.3 million shortfall for the 2008-9 budget year. The fund receives money from inmate phone calls and reimbursements from state and federal grants, but with a significantly reduced population, it means fewer inmates are taking the classes.
Although some law enforcement officials had expected an increase in crime because of the economy, experts caution that the two are not always connected.
"The correlation that the economy and unemployment directly impacts crime, it's really a myth," Spiropoulos said. "It's multifaceted, and you can't narrow it down to unemployment."
George Tita, an associate professor of criminology at UC Irvine, agreed. Though connected, Tita said, the two are not necessarily a cause-and-effect.
"It's a bit presumptive to think you are going to see a spike in crime (as well)," Tita said.
Still, experts and law enforcement officials are a bit stumped at trying to explain why the crime rate has fallen to such low levels.
Some cite effective policing, including community based policing and technology that is being used by law enforcement agencies across the country.
Demographics, drugs and the economy are all factors that can affect the crime rate, Spiropoulos said.
"And they're all just theories," she said.
The hope of some officials is to better understand the cause of the current lull in order to replicate it and use it effectively in the future.
One theory, Tita said, is that the level of unemployment means that people are at home, and so will prevent burglaries or thefts that would regularly happen during regular work hours.
The demographics behind who have been most severely hit by the economy may also be revealing, Spiropoulos said. Those people who have lost their job may be people who have strong ties to their family and have other factors that keep them from turning toward crime.
"They are the ones that are completely vested with their families," she said.
Or, she said, it could be that the impact has only been delayed. The crime rate "has to go back up to its average," Spiropoulos said. "I would have said two years ago it was going to turn. Let's hope it doesn't."
For county officials, it means keeping a close eye on crime rates and other factors, such as how the state handles the overcrowding at state prisons and parolees.
The federal government has ordered the state to reduce their prison population by more than 40,000 inmates, and the fight has gone to court. Earlier this year, a law went into effect placing low-risk offenders on unsupervised parole, and LeFlore said officials are keeping an eye to see how it will affect crime and the prison population. That law also provided for earlier releases for county inmates.
If needed, he said, officials are ready to open the closed areas of county jails.
"My hope is, maybe, in five or 10 years from now, someone may be able to explain what happened," Spiropoulos said.
Updated: May 29, 2010 3:26 p.m.
Crime rates down amid weak economy. Why?
By SALVADOR HERNANDEZ
THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
Bed space in Orange County jails remains plentiful as crime rates in the county's biggest cities – and across the country – continue to fall despite a struggling economy and high unemployment rate.
Across the country, violent crime fell 5.5 percent last year, while property crime dropped 4.9 percent, according to new data from the FBI. It was the third straight year that both types of crime decreased nationwide. Law enforcement officials and crime experts are scratching their heads at the unexpected drop in crime even as the unemployment rate hovers around 10 percent nationally.
"It kind of shows how much we don't know," said Georgia Spiropoulos, assistant professor of criminal justice at Cal State Fullerton. "Crime rates are just in the basement compared to what we're used to."
In Orange County's jails, the drop is visible, with the inmate population down 25 percent in just over two years. (Click here to see jail populations 2000-2010)
In 2007, the average monthly population at the county's three jails was 6,379, according to the sheriff's department. The population has decreased steadily, and so far this year, the average population is 4,733.
"Two years ago, I wouldn't have predicted we'd have the numbers we have now," said Assistant Sheriff Jay LeFlore, who heads custody operations for the department.
According to date from the FBI, violent crime fell in 2009 in five of Orange County's biggest cities, including Anaheim, Costa Mesa, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach and Orange. The city of Orange saw the biggest drop, with a 27 percent decrease in violent crimes reported.
Fullerton saw a 28 percent increase in violent crime. Irvine, which has the lowest violent crime per capita in the country, saw an increase of 17 percent.
Santa Ana reported the most violent crime incidents of any Orange County city at 1,726 in 2009, exactly the same number as in 2008.
Overall, violent crime in the county's eight largest cities fell 4 percent last year, according to the FBI statistics.
The drop in crime has meant a decline in the jail population that has translated into significant financial impacts. In December, the East Compound of the James A. Musick Facility was closed down, eliminating almost 300 beds and saving the sheriff's department about $1 million. In February 2009, officials shut a tent facility at the jail, saving another $1.2 million and taking out more than 600 beds.
This month, officials have shut down the fourth floor of the Central Men's jail, freeing 30 deputies who will be relocated to fill in vacancies and cut down on overtime hours at the jail, LeFlore said.
The closures are a response not just to the shrinking number of inmates, but to budget cuts that have occurred at the sheriff's department, including layoffs.
The decreased population also means that the Inmate Welfare Fund, which funds services for inmates such as educational, drug and behavioral classes, had a $1.3 million shortfall for the 2008-9 budget year. The fund receives money from inmate phone calls and reimbursements from state and federal grants, but with a significantly reduced population, it means fewer inmates are taking the classes.
Although some law enforcement officials had expected an increase in crime because of the economy, experts caution that the two are not always connected.
"The correlation that the economy and unemployment directly impacts crime, it's really a myth," Spiropoulos said. "It's multifaceted, and you can't narrow it down to unemployment."
George Tita, an associate professor of criminology at UC Irvine, agreed. Though connected, Tita said, the two are not necessarily a cause-and-effect.
"It's a bit presumptive to think you are going to see a spike in crime (as well)," Tita said.
Still, experts and law enforcement officials are a bit stumped at trying to explain why the crime rate has fallen to such low levels.
Some cite effective policing, including community based policing and technology that is being used by law enforcement agencies across the country.
Demographics, drugs and the economy are all factors that can affect the crime rate, Spiropoulos said.
"And they're all just theories," she said.
The hope of some officials is to better understand the cause of the current lull in order to replicate it and use it effectively in the future.
One theory, Tita said, is that the level of unemployment means that people are at home, and so will prevent burglaries or thefts that would regularly happen during regular work hours.
The demographics behind who have been most severely hit by the economy may also be revealing, Spiropoulos said. Those people who have lost their job may be people who have strong ties to their family and have other factors that keep them from turning toward crime.
"They are the ones that are completely vested with their families," she said.
Or, she said, it could be that the impact has only been delayed. The crime rate "has to go back up to its average," Spiropoulos said. "I would have said two years ago it was going to turn. Let's hope it doesn't."
For county officials, it means keeping a close eye on crime rates and other factors, such as how the state handles the overcrowding at state prisons and parolees.
The federal government has ordered the state to reduce their prison population by more than 40,000 inmates, and the fight has gone to court. Earlier this year, a law went into effect placing low-risk offenders on unsupervised parole, and LeFlore said officials are keeping an eye to see how it will affect crime and the prison population. That law also provided for earlier releases for county inmates.
If needed, he said, officials are ready to open the closed areas of county jails.
"My hope is, maybe, in five or 10 years from now, someone may be able to explain what happened," Spiropoulos said.
Hmmm...
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