2015

[zraver]

http://www.fpri.org/orbis/5401/kraska.navalwar2015.pdf

I don't buy the scenario for the sinking, but it raises other valid points.

[Mihais]

Not bad.Not really news either.The issue he raises is interesting.Would the US let themselves be deposed of the global naval supremacy,or will it fight to keep it?My bet is they'll fight.In one way or another(cold or hot war,the objective would be the same).
Lord Balfour said in 1904-''We are fools if we don't declare war on Germany in the next 10 years''.

[Masada]

This wargame is bizarre. I don't know if anyone here reads Information Dissemination, but here's the sum of the comments over on that site:

1. There is no way they could launch without us knowing. DSP and SBIRS would detect it pretty quickly.

2. We could share the IR data with the rest of the world and then the game would be up. If the rest of the world knows China sank the carrier, their whole strategy is ruined. Not that the strategy made any sense to begin with.

Also, the loss of one supercarrier, while tragic, does not a victory make. The study assumes we have 1/3 of our fleet operational due to maintenance concerns, but says nothing of the same kind of thing affecting the chinese.
I also find it ridiculous that Panama would deny us the use of the canal.

There is just too much wrong with the study to take it seriously. China hasn't even tested the terminal phase of the new DF-21 variant.

Here's the link to the ID post

I think Tom Ricks had a few paragraphs of analysis on his blog as well.

[Dreadnought]

http://www.fpri.org/orbis/5401/kraska.navalwar2015.pdf

I don't buy the scenario for the sinking, but it raises other valid points.

*I'm with you on this, far too many reasons why this scenario would never play out. One most important reason the author blatantly overlooks is the fact that China holds billions of US debt. Attack any US carrier (if you survive the reprisal) and those billions now become forfeit. Another reason and this one is a major big one......Logistics.

China wont have logistics in place nor will that debt be paid by 2015. Maybe not even by 2075.

Panama wouldnt deny us the canal. If they did then we would take it immediately, control that and you force three extra days of sail around the horn, perfect place for a wolf pack to be awaiting in the open.;)

Perhaps he should consider writting for Steven King or Tom Clancy

[NUS]

Sinking all US carriers is very easy for China.

All they need to do is to stop giving money to US.
If China will decide to go further, and will ask their money back, those carrier will be under Chinese flag.

(It's a joke. So far... :) )

[Dreadnought]

Dreaming.

[Mihais]

Sinking all US carriers is very easy for China.

All they need to do is to stop giving money to US.
If China will decide to go further, and will ask their money back, those carrier will be under Chinese flag.

(It's a joke. So far... :) )

Jokes or not,there is a very big difference between having a real asset and a debt that's made of virtual money(the Chinese don't even have paper money that could be used as toilet paper).
''With iron not with gold victory is won''

[NUS]

''With iron not with gold victory is won'

Tell this to Soviet navy. ;)

[Dreadnought]

That would be very few words since they have very few ships in operational condition.:))

[biteasaur]

it makes me shudder to think of a aircraft carrier being sunk,just imagine what it would take to get it done and what would be left in the aftermath,twists my stomach,anyway "merry christmas everyone,gotta race a winter storm to the relatives be safe.

[Gun Grape]

he should have started this article with "Once upon a time". Sounds like it was written by the Navys PR dept right before budget time.

[diablo49]

*I'm with you on this, far too many reasons why this scenario would never play out. One most important reason the author blatantly overlooks is the fact that China holds billions of US debt. Attack any US carrier (if you survive the reprisal) and those billions now become forfeit. Another reason and this one is a major big one......Logistics.

China wont have logistics in place nor will that debt be paid by 2015. Maybe not even by 2075.

Panama wouldnt deny us the canal. If they did then we would take it immediately, control that and you force three extra days of sail around the horn, perfect place for a wolf pack to be awaiting in the open.;)

Perhaps he should consider writting for Steven King or Tom Clancy

As well, the United States would be justified in retaking control of it from either COSCO, the Panama government, or both per the breaking of treaty obligations.

[SirSydneySmith]

he should have started this article with "Once upon a time". Sounds like it was written by the Navys PR dept right before budget time.

LOL nice.

I'm still trying to imagine what it would be to have such an awesome Carrier, nevermind losing one.

But in all seriousness, IMO, I imagine the economic ties already mentioned above would prevent anything like this happening.

Furthermore, this magic Carrier-killing missile doesn't even exist. Still a good read though, we all enjoy speculation.

[tphuang]

*I'm with you on this, far too many reasons why this scenario would never play out. One most important reason the author blatantly overlooks is the fact that China holds billions of US debt. Attack any US carrier (if you survive the reprisal) and those billions now become forfeit. Another reason and this one is a major big one......Logistics.

China wont have logistics in place nor will that debt be paid by 2015. Maybe not even by 2075.

Panama wouldnt deny us the canal. If they did then we would take it immediately, control that and you force three extra days of sail around the horn, perfect place for a wolf pack to be awaiting in the open.;)

Perhaps he should consider writting for Steven King or Tom Clancy

right, because China is ever going to get those money back anyways? It continues to amaze me people actually think US would ever be able to pay back the money it borrowed from China (I'm saying in real terms, no nominal terms). Of course, China is the biggest sucker of all.