Thailand in Turmoil

[Merlin]

Thailand is a popular tourism destination and hailed as 'the land of smiles'. It is a democracy with regular changes in government many of them due to coup.

It is now undergoing political turmoil with tens of thousands out on the street. At the same time, an Asian Summit is being held in a tourist resort.

Making sense of Thailand’s turmoil

Apr 9, 2009 [ForeignPolicy] Bangkok's streets are again filled with protesters this week in what will likely prove a boisterous but futile attempt to force the government's resignation. But behind all the noise, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who has been directing these demonstrations from outside the country, may well have a more subtle, longer-term agenda.

Thaksin and his supporters have been attacking the country's "aristocracy"--and top adviser to King Bhumibol Adulyadej, Prem Tinsulanonda, in particular. This suggests that Thaksin's maneuvers are related less to any effort to immediately oust the current government but instead to undermining the power structures centered around the monarchy, particularly the King's privy council, and the succession process that Thailand will face once ailing King Bhumibol passes from the scene.

The protests are generating more noise than usual thanks to warnings from Thaksin that "the time for talks has passed" and the sense that protesters (known as "red shirts") are pushing for a confrontation. The former prime minister, ousted in a 2006 coup, is still able to create tension in the capital by rallying his supporters from Thailand's northeast and among Bangkok's poor.

But without support from the military, the monarchy, and Bangkok's middle class, these protests are highly unlikely to divide the country's political elite and threaten the current regime. Even Thaksin's allies know that even if they could force new elections, the elite-controlled institutions could undermine their administration. Thaksin is believed to be in either Dubai or Cambodia, and evidence suggests that the military is trying to block his satellite telephone calls to followers inside Thailand. ...

In short, Thailand is in the midst of a power struggle that could reach deeply into its institutions and power structures. It started with a fight between the elites and Thaksin in 2006, and has begun to spill over into the public sphere. The stakes have been magnified by the uncertainty around the royal succession in a country in which the monarchy remains the most powerful political institution. Thailand's history shows that this type of conflict will take time to resolve, with results ranging from the absurd to the tragic.

[Merlin]

Here is a good point by point Q&A analysis of these unrests in Thailand.

Q+A - Where is political unrest in Thailand heading?

Apr 10, 2009 BANGKOK (Reuters) - Political unrest has returned to Thailand with supporters of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra bringing the capital to a grinding halt .... The "red shirt" Thaksin supporters are demanding the current government step down so new elections can be held and have taken their protests to the southern beach town which is holding an Asia summit this weekend.

WHO'S FIGHTING WHO?

It's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva versus Thaksin, who was removed by the army in a bloodless coup in September 2006 and now lives in self-imposed exile.

The protests are funded and guided from a distance by Thaksin, a former police officer who built up a telecoms empire before turning to politics and becoming prime minister in 2001. ...

Thaksin funnelled government funds to the poor in the countryside and cities, winning their devotion. But he was also widely seen as authoritarian and critics accused him of corruption. Above all, he was accused of republican leanings in a country that reveres King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

All this set him up for a fight with the royalist elite, the military and the 'old money' business community, and he was ousted in a military coup in September 2006.

Abhisit -- educated at Eton and Oxford and a smooth performer on the international stage -- is much closer to that elite.

He became prime minister in December, taking over from a pro-Thaksin premier, ...

WHAT'S THE CHANCE OF THE PROTESTS SPREADING?

Apart from an effort to disrupt a high-profile Asian summit in the seaside town of Pattaya, there has been little echo of the protests outside Bangkok, as Thaksin's allies concentrated their resources on bussing supporters to the capital. ...

COULD THE PROTESTS TURN VIOLENT?

Abhisit is adamant the government will not crack down, but security forces will take action if the protests turn violent.

Economics Professor Lae Dilokvidhyarat from Chulalongkorn University says Abhisit has learnt a lesson from history.

"History since the 1970s has showed that every civil strife or coup in this country was triggered or stemmed from the government, police or soldiers starting a crackdown," he said.

"History since the 1970s has showed that every civil strife or coup in this country was triggered or stemmed from the government, police or soldiers starting a crackdown," he said. ...

WILL ALL THIS HURT THE ECONOMY?

The economy is already on the ropes, likely to shrink as much as 4 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, because of a slump in exports and the effects of last year's unrest, which hit tourism badly. ...

[Merlin]

It is difficult to know what is the future of Thailand.

Important Asian Summits meetings that were to be held there end of last year had to be postponed more than once. The Summits finally went ahead, but then the most important one involving China, Japan and India had to be cancelled.

Protesters force halt to Asian ministers' meeting

Apr 10, 2009 PATTAYA, Thailand (Reuters) - Demonstrators who had vowed to disrupt a regional summit in the beach resort of Pattaya scored a victory on Saturday when the foreign ministers of Japan, South Korea and China were forced to cancel a trilateral meeting.

The protesters, supporters of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, blocked the entrance to the meeting venue, and Japanese Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone was unable to reach it from his nearby hotel, a Japanese foreign ministry official said.

"The trilateral meeting has been canceled," the Japanese foreign ministry official said. ...

The Chinese and South Korean foreign ministers went ahead with a bilateral meeting. ....

The three ministers had been expected to discuss their response to North Korea's recent rocket launch, with Japan and China divided on how to deal with the issue.

[Merlin]

A state of emergency has been declared. This may be a mistake. What'll happen next?

SNAP ANALYSIS-Thai PM's options narrow after summit fiasco

BANGKOK, April 11 (Reuters) - Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's decision to declare a state of emergency around a cancelled Asian summit has narrowed his options in dealing with anti-government protesters and raises questions about whether he has the backing of the military.

Political developments in the next 48 hours could determine the fate of his four-month-old coalition government.

Here are some possible consequences:

* The degree of enforcement by security forces of the emergency will determine Abhisit's largely untested leadership, and whether he can keep the emboldened, largely rural supporters of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra under control.

* Abhisit has been considerably weakened by his failure to stop the demonstrators getting anywhere near the summit, which will be interpreted as a sign of indecisiveness even if the aim was to avoid bloodshed.

* Abhisit's gamble on invoking an emergenc risks fomenting widespread civil strife with unpredictable consequences if the military fails to stand firmly behind him.

* Bloodshed following any crackdown on Thaksin's red-shirted supporters will put pressure on Abhisit to step down and call a snap election, or let Thailand's fractious parliament choose a successor.

* Bloodshed could even lead to the military stepping in and mounting another coup, after the one in 2006 that ousted Thaksin, although the army has made it clear repeatedly during months of unrest that it did not want to get involved in politics again. ...

[snowhole]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20...t_11172299.htm

Thai red-shirted protest leader arrested


www.chinaview.cn 2009-04-12 12:41:09 Print

·A red-shirts leader, who led protesters to disrupt ASEAN summits, has been arrested.
·Arisamun Pongruangrong is detained at the Border Patrol Police headquarters.
·Thai Prime Minister vowed Sunday he would punish those responsible for disruption.

BANGKOK, April 12 (Xinhua) -- Two Thai red-shirts leaders claimed that Arisamun Pongruangrong, who led protesters to disrupt the ASEAN summits due to be held in Pattaya, Thailand Saturday, has been arrested, according to The Nation's website Sunday.

Bangkok police later confirmed Arisamun has been arrested for inciting protesters disrupting the summits and violating the Constitution.


Anti-government protestors leave the vunue of summits of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders with dialogue partners, in Pattaya, Thailand, April 11, 2009. The ASEAN related summits scheduled on April 10-12 have been canceled because of security reason, the Thai government announced here Saturday. (Xinhua/Zhang Fengguo)

The leaders said that Arisamun is detained at the Border Patrol Police headquarters, where a group of red-shirted protesters assembled, demanding police release Arisamun within three hours, a source told Xinhua.


An anti-government protestor leaves the vunue of summits of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders with dialogue partners, in Pattaya, Thailand, April 11, 2009. (Xinhua/Zhang Fengguo)

Arisamun's arrest came after Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva vowed on Sunday morning in a weekly address to the nation that he would take legal action in a couple of days to punish those responsible for disrupting the ASEAN summit and related summits.

[Merlin]

It is a great pity a few of these Asian summit meetings had to be postponed. Here is a $10 billion reason.

China planned $10 billion invest fund at failed summit

Apr 12, 2009 BEIJING (Reuters) - China had planned to announce a $10 billion (6.8 billion pound) infrastructure investment fund and offer credit to neighbours at a cancelled weekend summit of Asian leaders in Thailand, its foreign minister said.

Anti-government protestors forced the cancellation of the summit in Pattaya after they swarmed into the summit venue.

In an interview with state media on a flight back to China, Foreign minister Yang Jiechi avoided direct criticism of the Thai government while detailing measures that Chinese premier Wen Jiabao had planned to offer at the summit.

China plans to establish a $10 billion China-ASEAN investment cooperation fund to promote infrastructure that connects it to ASEAN nations, Yang said.

China has been active in building roads from its southern border through neighbouring Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam, to ease trade.

It will also offer a credit of $15 billion to ASEAN countries, including preferential loans of $1.7 billion for cooperation projects, Yang said. ....

While not an ASEAN member, China's growing economic clout, huge market and competitive exports make it an important participant in ASEAN summits, ...

China recently appointed its first ambassador to ASEAN, after the 10-member grouping formally adopted a charter.

[Merlin]

The turmoil in Thailand is getting worse. A state of emergency has been declared in and around Bangkok. The army has been mobilised, tanks are on the street, and the situation is getting more violent. The PM refused to resign. The previously disposed and self-exciled PM Thaksin said he may return to Thailand. Travel advisory has been issued by a number of countries.

Ir is not possible to know what will be the outcome.

Violence escalates in Thailand

BANGKOK, April 13 (Xinhua) -- Violence in Thailand is escalating Monday despite government troops attempted to gain control and restore order to the capital Bangkok.

The whole-day's stand-off and clashes between anti-government "red shirted" protestors and Thai police and soldiers have left more than 70 people injured.

A building in Thailand's education ministry complex has been set ablaze after being hit by petrol bombs. Protestors also seized seven buses and set them on fire in front of the army headquarters, sending flames shooting high into the sky, witnesses said.

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said on national TV that the protestors had no right to break the law or violate other people's rights. He added that he would not step down under violence threat.

Thai Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban also warned of possible sabotage of "red shirted" people on Monday night.

In a televised program, Suthep, who is in charge of national security, asked police and soldiers to take action against protesters who break the law. ....

The violence started before dawn Monday after Abhisit declared a state of emergency on Sunday afternoon in Bangkok and some districts of five provinces nearby, citing the escalating violence of red-shirted protesters.

Soon after the declaration of the state of emergency, soldiers and armored carriers were deployed onto the Bangkok street.

At about 4:30 a.m. local time Monday morning, some 300 red-shirted protestors used a seized bus to crash soldiers stationed at Din Daeng District in north Bangkok. Soldiers fired warning shots into the air and used teargas to disperse the protestors. ...

Till early afternoon, the Thai security authorities have managed to disperse red- shirted protestors from many areas in Bangkok as traffic have resumed.

[Merlin]

I generally agree with the views here.

Thailand Needs New Elections

Apr 15, 2009 [WSJ] Over the past few years, Thailand's political elites have waged a battle on the streets of the capital using mobs to throw democratically elected governments out of power. Now it is the turn of the supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra, the deposed former prime minister, to wreak their revenge. Meanwhile the economic losses mount, and one of Asia's oldest democracies looks more and more fragile. So where did Thailand go wrong?

For decades, power-brokers in the military, parliament and boardroom used the government to enrich themselves. The populist Mr. Thaksin threatened their interests by obtaining a strong democratic mandate to start expensive government programs to benefit the rural poor, and also to open the door wider to the forces of globalization and competition. Last weekend's riots by the "Red Shirts," Mr. Thaksin's supporters, mimicked the tactics used by the anti-Thaksin forces, the "Yellow Shirts," in late 2008. That group also surrounded government buildings and blockaded Bangkok's airports for days, bringing the country to a virtual standstill.

Both protests reflect an increasingly polarized Thai society. On the Yellow side are monarchists who profess loyalty to King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the army, many academics, some of the business elite, and ordinary Thais mainly from the southern provinces. On the Red side are supporters of Mr. Thaksin, including business owners who benefited under his rule, and many rural voters especially in the north and northeast of the country who also reaped the rewards of his populist "Thaksinomics."

The Reds have the advantage of sheer numbers, and most probably free and fair elections would return pro-Thaksin forces to leadership. The Yellows claim legitimacy because of their loyalty to the king; they also have the army and, for the most part, the police force behind them. In the middle are large numbers of ordinary Thais who want to get back to stability and prosperity.

Full rehabilitation of Mr. Thaksin most probably would require a pardon, whether by the king or the parliament. Yet there are other steps that could be taken -- and that don't necessarily need to factor in Mr. Thaksin directly -- that also might pave the way for meaningful reconciliation.

The government could grant amnesty to the 111 members of Mr. Thaksin's now-defunct Thai Rak Thai Party, allowing them to re-enter the political arena. This group, including Mr. Thaksin, was banned from politics for five years by a junta-appointed panel for breaking electoral laws prior to the parliamentary elections of April 2, 2006.

The current Constitution of 2007 could be amended to reflect better the so-called People's Constitution of 1997. Many consider this Constitution the most democratic in the country's history, not least because it was drawn up with extensive public consultation, and for the first time called for direct elections to both the upper and lower houses of parliament. In any case, greater power needs to be returned to the elected members of parliament and removed from nonelected institutions and representatives of the state. Some of the reforms of the 1997 Constitution were rolled back in 2007.

More importantly, there should be fresh elections as soon as possible. By hanging on to power until the bitter end, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his coalition government risk doing more harm than good. The prime minister should recognize that the current situation is untenable. ....

[Shiny Capstar]

One of my friends is off there on holiday next week, the daft moron.

[Merlin]

The political dust is far from being settled in Thailand.

Thailand searches for a political exit plan

Apr 19, 2009 BANGKOK, THAILAND – The charred buses and metal barricades are gone. Armed soldiers still patrol the capital, but discretely. Even the traffic is back to its usual near-gridlock.

But one week after Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejajjiva declared a state of emergency to put down violent protests here by red-shirted opponents, who sought his resignation, the shock waves are still rippling through a polarized, shaken nation.

The emergency laws were reaffirmed Sunday after a meeting between security officials and the prime minister. It may be several days before it’s lifted. Police are hunting for the gunmen behind the shooting on Friday of Sondhi Limthongkul, a leader of a rival protest group, known as “yellow shirts.”

Authorities have separately detained 34 people over the recent protests and closed down opposition radio stations and Internet sites blamed for inciting violence.

Beyond the immediate security threat, however, lies a more complex challenge: restoring faith in Thailand’s fragile democracy to solve its grinding political conflict. If this fails, the outcome could be more turmoil and greater instability, say political analysts and politicians.

FRESH ELECTIONS?
Much of the debate centers on proposed changes to a 2007 constitution and a possible amnesty for banned politicians, followed by fresh elections. There is deep disquiet over the role of powerful elites, including the military, in the process, as well as the risk of a popular backlash to any poll results.

Mr. Abhisit, who took power in December after a court disbanded three parties in the previous coalition government, has promised to hold elections, once political reforms are concluded. But he hasn’t laid out a firm timetable for the reforms, which experts have said could take several months to finalize. ....

[nebula82]

One of my friends is off there on holiday next week, the daft moron.

While I wouldn't endorse the idea of going to Thailand now, your friend will be fine, so long as he/she doesn't stray off the tourist/mainstream path. Protest zones should obviously be avoided. I think all the chaos took place in Bangkok & not anywhere else in Thailand. Things seem much calmer now but you never know.

Nebula82.

[Merlin]

It has been quite a long emergency decree, 12 days. It has now been lifted.

But there is another summit in Thailand in June. There may be trouble there again.

Thailand lifts emergency, seeks charter revamp

BANGKOK, April 24 (Reuters) - Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva lifted a state of emergency in Bangkok on Friday and promised constitutional reforms in the latest bid to resolve the country's long-running political crisis.

Abhisit announced the decision in parliament after a late-night debate on violent anti-government street protests and officials said the decree would be formally lifted later on Friday.

"The official end of the decree has to be published in the Royal Gazette, which officers are working on right now," Satit Wonghnongtaey, a minister of the prime minister's office, told Reuters.

Emergency rule was imposed in the capital and surrounding areas 12 days ago to quell violent street protests involving thousands of demonstrators intent on toppling the government.

Two people were killed and more than 100 injured in the worst street violence in 16 years, threatening further damage to the key tourist industry and Thailand's recession-bound economy. ...

The emergency measures barely affected daily life in the city of over 10 million people. Abhisit said protests could resume as long as they were peaceful. ....

Abhisit, who has previously rejected a new poll, proposed a new commission to study amendments to the 2007 constitution, which was drafted by a military-installed government after Thaksin was removed in a coup a year earlier. ...

Critics have said the constitution was a step back from the 1997 "People's Charter", which allowed for a fully elected upper house.

[tankie]

While I wouldn't endorse the idea of going to Thailand now, your friend will be fine, so long as he/she doesn't stray off the tourist/mainstream path. Protest zones should obviously be avoided. I think all the chaos took place in Bangkok & not anywhere else in Thailand. Things seem much calmer now but you never know.

Nebula82.

I have friends in Thailand whom i keep in touch with via emails , they tell me that trouble was all over the country ,but the main trouble was in BKK.

[tankie]

Anyone thinking of going , read this

Bangkok back to 'normal', emergency lifted Friday
http://www.bahtsold.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4039

[Tomluter]

So, Whom does the king stand for?