Iranian S-300 battery confirmed at Bushehr

[zraver]

Planeman, the author of the Bluffers guide bought digital satellite images of the Iranian nuclear facility at Bushehr and found what he is claiming is a S-300 battery protected by Skyguard AAA cannon.

http://www.irandefence.net/showthread.php?t=47051

[Masada]

Okay, this is interesting.

Two reasons:
1. Because the Iranians are willing to return spent fuel to Russia, it's likely they consider Bushehr of limited value for weapons production.

2. The S-300 alone is not going to deter an Israeli strike. The Israeli response, if any, would be to simply send more planes to make up for expected attrition (which I won't even speculate on...)


So, either the Iranians are stupid, or what?
The Iranians could simply do better by further diffusing their nuclear facilities in hardened positions, forcing Israeli planners to deal with political fallout if they lose too many planes, or mount strike which fails to accomplish all of it's objectives.

My source for most of this being
“Osirak Redux? Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities", which I have in a PDF somewhere

Just my two cents, as a submarine guy who only knows what he reads on the internet about aviation...

[zraver]

Okay, this is interesting.

Two reasons:
1. Because the Iranians are willing to return spent fuel to Russia, it's likely they consider Bushehr of limited value for weapons production.

As far as I know, Russia has not delivered any fuel yet, hence the dpoemstic enrichment program. Iran is rapidly reaching the point where it can fire up Bushehr without Russian fuel. However Israel did Osirak just before the Iraqi reactor went online.

2. The S-300 alone is not going to deter an Israeli strike. The Israeli response, if any, would be to simply send more planes to make up for expected attrition (which I won't even speculate on...)

If those are indeed S-300's and they are operational any Israeli attack stands in serious danger. Depending on what model of missile you could bee lokking at 12-48 missiles there. Iran might be betting that Israel won't risk the loss of so many F-15's and the prestige if they attack and get shot down or take appalling losses. Especially since Israel knows that Iran is years away from a bomb since they haven't even started down that road. Iran either has to divert LEU or get Bushehr up and running to produce plutonium to even start down than road. This gives Israel time to figure out how to defeat the S-300 in the meantime Iran gets its reactor running.

So, either the Iranians are stupid, or what?
The Iranians could simply do better by further diffusing their nuclear facilities in hardened positions, forcing Israeli planners to deal with political fallout if they lose too many planes, or mount strike which fails to accomplish all of it's objectives.

You can't really disperse a reactor complex. Bushehr is a big chunk of the national jewels in hock for Iran both financially and politically. If Israel destroys it its a huge blow to the leadership of Iran and a war, likely to draw in the US and in the end leaving Iran in ruins. If the S-300's deter the attack they are worth the price.

My source for most of this being
“Osirak Redux? Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities", which I have in a PDF somewhere

Just my two cents, as a submarine guy who only knows what he reads on the internet about aviation...

its all speculation at this point. here are some unanswered questions.

1. Is it really an S-300 battey? It sure looks like it, but it could be a decoy or a mis-ID.

2. If it is an S-300 battery- what generation is it? The claim its a PMU2 seems sketchy on the images.

3. Regardless of generation is it operational? No one has come forward and said we detected S-300 related radar emissions and the Tells are not erected.

4. Depending on what generation, how many missiles are we looking at 12 or up to 48?

5. Who is manning it, Russians, Belorussians or Iranians

6. How many reloads do we think they have if it is a real S-300.

7. If it is indeed an S-300 will Israel attack as they said they would? Or will the presence of an S-300 and the ballistic missile force deter an attack and continue the Mexican Standoff?

8. If Israel decides it wants to attack, can the US stop them? or conversely will the US join in despite the risk to oil and its bases/troops in the region.

9. If the US says no, how can Israel reach Iran?

10, If the US tells Israel no, and Israel decides to act anyway will they warn the US?

11. If warned will the US begin moving ships out of the gulf and supplies into the bases to wait out the storm thus potentially tipping off the attack.

[zraver]

I got duped

April fools!

Ok, it's the lamest April fools of all time with about zero people even taking note of the S-300 part of the guide. The satellite image of the S-300 site is a fake. Almost embarrassed to admit such a wet squid prank but think I should put the record straight.

The rest of the Bluffer's guide is completely serious.

Quote:
Originally Posted by planeman
S-300 SAM system – CONFIRMED!
There have been consistent reports of Iranian interest in the advanced Russian S-300 SAM system and even rumors of deployment but these have been unsubstantiated for years. As of Jan 2009 it can be confirmed via commercial satellite imagery that Iran does possess S-300 SAMs. The likely model is S-300 PMU-2 although the slightly older PMU-1 is a possibility. The latest S-400 cannot be ruled out but this seems less likely. The likely source of this system remains Russia although China also manufactures S-300 PMU-1 systems.




The S-300 PMU-2 SAM system is among the most feared, and hyped, air-defense weapons in service anywhere and represents a quantum leap for Iranian air defences. Iran reported to have inducted into service a long range SAM system, by implication an indigenous one, earlier this year. Iranian press reports are commonly inaccurate, especially about the origin of technologies (as are the press in most countries!!!) so this may tie in with the S-300 system.
Site analysis
Firstly I’m surprised the site is so close to the nuclear site, which is not a weapons related site. The whole area of Bushehr is heavily defended by multiple I-Hawk and even SA-5 (S-200) SAMs and numerous AAA sites. It is possible that the S-300 site here replaces the other SAMs although because it’s a new site (converted from AAA) we can assume that the other SAM systems are still present. Additionally, the Bushehr location allows the long range S-300 missiles to cover most of the Persian Gulf effectively deterring strike aircraft from taking the ‘straight across’ route from US or the Gulf States, or Israel.

Like the SA-5 in Iranian service, the known S-300 site is noteworthy in that it has fewer launch positions than would be expected for S-300 in service elsewhere. There are two obvious firing pans (as per Iranian S-200) although each is designed for two missile TELs which means up to 16 missiles ‘ready to fire’. Additionally the S-300 is much more mobile than other Iranian systems so additional launchers could easily be set up nearby and networked in. There is only one elevated radar ramp, presumably for the fire-control radar. The radar in this case looks to me more like the ‘Cheeseboard’ system rather than a ‘Flap lid’ series, hence my belief that it is S-300 PMU-2 not PMU-1. Additionally, the ‘Big bird’ surveillance radar effectively rules out older version of the S-300, although not conclusively.

Alternative hypothesis
Alternatively, the fresh satellite images are not Russian supplied S-300 but an Iranian clone/cousin of the system. That Iran is developing an indigenous “S-300” has been reported, and possibly with a lot of Russian assistance although we should strictly treat it as a rumor. The system would be similar in capability to the S-300 and share many technologies but may be quite different in end product – akin to the Chinese HQ-9 program. The below illustration shows a ‘what-if’ of an “Iranianized” S-300 system:

[Kernow]

I can't believe that Israel would be stupid enough to attack Iran.

[Kernow]

It appears that Russia is supplying Iran with the S-300PMU-2 and that delivery will be complete by Sep 2009.

[JohnFlint1985]

It appears that Russia is supplying Iran with the S-300PMU-2 and that delivery will be complete by Sep 2009.

What I read recently in some Israeli newspaper that Israel actually experimented on S200 missiles system that they got from Prague and supposedly they know how to neutralize the system. s300 as far as I know has more operational capabilities. But it is similar.

here it is

'We'll neutralize S-300 if they're sold to Iran'

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

[Kernow]

The US also bought an S-300V for evaluation, so no doubt Israel have had a looksie at that one too.

[Mercenary]

The US also bought an S-300V for evaluation, so no doubt Israel have had a looksie at that one too.

Who sold the US the S-300??

[Stitch]

My source for most of this being
“Osirak Redux? Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities", which I have in a PDF somewhere

Here's a link for "Osirak Redux":

http://web.mit.edu/ssp/Publications/...rs/wp_06-1.pdf

[PanSonic]

What I read recently in some Israeli newspaper that Israel actually experimented on S200 missiles system that they got from Prague and supposedly they know how to neutralize the system. s300 as far as I know has more operational capabilities. But it is similar.

here it is

'We'll neutralize S-300 if they're sold to Iran'

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

Didn't the IAF attack in Syria while holding the S-300?
Does anyone have the idea what air defenses were used when Israel attacked the alleged nuclear facility in Syria?

[Proyas]

Russia denies S-300's sold to Iran

Moscow Times
April 16, 2009

'No S-300 Delivery To Iran'


A senior Russian defense official said Wednesday that Russia has not delivered any S-300 air defense missile systems to Iran, Interfax reported.

"Nothing is going on. There are no deliveries," Alexander Fomin, deputy director of the Federal Military-Technical Cooperation Service, told an international defense exposition in Brazil, the report said. Supplying S-300s to Iran would change the military balance in the Middle East, and the issue has been the subject of intense diplomatic wrangling for months.

--AP

[Dreadnought]

Wouldnt matter they would deny it anyway and deliver it through a middle country such as they have done in the past.;)