Fiji army reserves called in by chief

[troung]

Fiji army reserves called in by chief
Simon Kearney, Suva
27nov06

FIJI'S military commander has confirmed that he called up 1000 reservists on Saturday to enact his plan for a "clean-up" of Laisenia Qarase's Government as the Pacific Island nation spirals inexorably towards its third coup in 20 years.

The stand-off between Commodore Frank Bainimarama, the Prime Minister and the Australian Police Commissioner Andrew Hughes appears set to conclude in a coup or the less likely imprisonment of the commander on sedition charges. Commodore Bainimarama said as much yesterday when he told news website fijilive.com that he had not wavered from his earlier threats to overthrow the Qarase Government and would use the extra troops in his "clean-up" campaign.
"My intention of removing this Government is clear. If they are going to prosecute me if my clean-up campaign fails then it is their concern," he said.
Commodore Bainimarama summoned the 1000 military reservists, saying they would spend up to 12 months "in camp".
He also posted an extra guard at the presidential mansion after expressing outrage at the police commissioner, who executed a search warrant on President Ratu Josefa Iloilo in his office on Thursday.
Commodore Bainimarama said yesterday he was committed to his course and said Mr Hughes should leave the country before things "blow up".
Police have been gathering evidence about Commodore Bainimarama and his senior officers in relation to a sedition investigation after the military commander threatened to overthrow the Government.
It is understood the police have evidence that Commodore Bainimarama was selecting an interim government last week.
Fiji's Director of Public Prosecutions is believed to have recommended charging Commodore Bainimarama with sedition. Police could be compelled to act this week when Commodore Bainimarama returns from New Zealand.
Commodore Bainimarama has given the Government an ultimatum to meet nine demands by December 5, including dropping the sedition investigation and expelling Mr Hughes.
The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade last night upgraded its travel advisory for Fiji, warning Australians to reconsider their need to travel to the island nation.


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[Parihaka]

On the one side you have a group of tribal elders who were the backers of the previous coup controlling the government and getting the government to legislate blanket pardons for that coups leaders.
On the other you have the current Military commanders backed by other tribal elders threatening a coup to stop that legislation from taking place.
We are of course 'discussing' things with Bainimarama whilst he enjoys his holiday about how we prefer coups to not take place, and talking to the Police commander to not ratchet up the tension any more than has already taken place.
Both the Australian and New Zealand embassies have, for the first time, increased our 'security personnel' at our embassies (read SAS). We're getting sick of this ****.

[gf0012-aust]

On the one side you have a group of tribal elders who were the backers of the previous coup controlling the government and getting the government to legislate blanket pardons for that coups leaders.
On the other you have the current Military commanders backed by other tribal elders threatening a coup to stop that legislation from taking place.
We are of course 'discussing' things with Bainimarama whilst he enjoys his holiday about how we prefer coups to not take place, and talking to the Police commander to not ratchet up the tension any more than has already taken place.
Both the Australian and New Zealand embassies have, for the first time, increased our 'security personnel' at our embassies (read SAS). We're getting sick of this ****.

The first test of this will be when Bainimarama re-enters the country. If he is served upon entry then the manure will really hit the mistral...

Still, its not as if its a surprise, we've had assets mobilised and ready for this for the last 9 months. It just happened that they were slotted into East Timor first (fortunate logistics at work).

Either way, the poor fijians and their economy will be basketed for years if it goes off.

[-{SpoonmaN}-]

The first test of this will be when Bainimarama re-enters the country. If he is served upon entry then the manure will really hit the mistral...

Still, its not as if its a surprise, we've had assets mobilised and ready for this for the last 9 months. It just happened that they were slotted into East Timor first (fortunate logistics at work).

Either way, the poor fijians and their economy will be basketed for years if it goes off.

Indeed. I kinda wish that Fiji had taken the offer to join with the colonies here as part of the Commonwealth rather than staying on to full indepence, that could well have saved their people a whole lot of trouble. I think between all the crap happening in the Solomons, Fiji, Tonga and especially PNG, the case for increasing defence spending even further has been firmly made. As M21 argued on this forum, 3.5-4% would be doable without massive overhauls of the economy, and we'd be able to raise a lot of extra army units and especially increase our air and sealift capabilities. Simply put, once PNG blows its top as it sooner or later probably will, we may well find ourselves not being able to cover all this surface area ourselves, and I can't think of a lot of countries that would be willing or able to help.

[gf0012-aust]

Simply put, once PNG blows its top as it sooner or later probably will, we may well find ourselves not being able to cover all this surface area ourselves, and I can't think of a lot of countries that would be willing or able to help.

I think PNG is guaranteed to go to custard. I had an ex who contracted for KPMG to help rebuild their Pub Service. She lasted a year before resigning in disgust at the level of corruption that permeated through every admininistrative process. That country is going down the schitter faster than free beer going off at a wharfies picnic.

As for outside help. I think there are some subtle changes happening. The US has indicated a few weeks ago that it wants to make a more useful contribution to help Aust and NZ react and deal with local probs.

France has also recently signed a new maritime treaty which is open to interpretation. Its primarily worded so that we have the right to assist each other in hot pursuit and the application of each countries national laws in overlapping territories of interest. Australian officers are now attached to french vessels in the PACRIM and vice versa for French officers on Aust long range patrols.

The attitude has also changed from within. The Freos were delisted and made available for commercial sale and not considered for the PacBoat programme. Normally, we would be giving those assets over to our micronesian neighbours so as to provide them with "free kit". the significance of the act, ie to sell some of them after stripping and rebirthing only 8 of the good hulls should send a clear message. whether the message is too subtle is another issue.

[-{SpoonmaN}-]

Judging by the recent displays of seemingly irrational defiance that some of our neighbours have shown over things like the Moti affair, I'd have half a mind to say that the message ain't getting through.
And, as you said, PNG is basically on the fritz for sure, and we're going to have to deal with it, and trying to manage a country of 6 million people that is so comprehensively screwed up is going to require a lot more people-power and a lot more logistical heavy lifting than we're used to. Like I wouldn't be at all surprised if we had to call out reserves and stay on in a large scale deployment which would likely draw resentment and at least sporadic resistance for the long-haul.

[Parihaka]

PNG is going to have to be a long term project, unless the shyt hits the fan nothings going to be done for at least 3 years.
Tonga is easily contained and with even a small show of democratisation should be fine.
Fiji on the other hand is an imminent disaster. The army is relatively well trained and equipped, with a seriously large number of experienced combat troops on home turf. The last coup nearly split it but only one army on army incident took place. They (the chiefly factions) have had several years to prepare for this one and a fifty/fifty split is much more likely, stepping into the middle of that is going to be deadly.

[-{SpoonmaN}-]

PNG is going to have to be a long term project, unless the shyt hits the fan nothings going to be done for at least 3 years.
Tonga is easily contained and with even a small show of democratisation should be fine.
Fiji on the other hand is an imminent disaster. The army is relatively well trained and equipped, with a seriously large number of experienced combat troops on home turf. The last coup nearly split it but only one army on army incident took place. They (the chiefly factions) have had several years to prepare for this one and a fifty/fifty split is much more likely, stepping into the middle of that is going to be deadly.

Deadly but necessary. I wish we'd gone and bought more amphibious warfare equipment, we might just need it. Although I'd have to point out that our reputation preceeds us, a lot of the RFAF are likely to bail out or surrender if they have to face up to a serious intervention by Australia. We'll just have to see how it works out I guess, but if I were in charge I'd be stepping up at least one full battlegroup and possibly an entire brigade of follow-up troops to demonstrate that we can employ overwhelming force if we need to.

[gf0012-aust]

Deadly but necessary. I wish we'd gone and bought more amphibious warfare equipment, we might just need it. Although I'd have to point out that our reputation preceeds us, a lot of the RFAF are likely to bail out or surrender if they have to face up to a serious intervention by Australia. We'll just have to see how it works out I guess, but if I were in charge I'd be stepping up at least one full battlegroup and possibly an entire brigade of follow-up troops to demonstrate that we can employ overwhelming force if we need to.

Agree on displaying overwhelming force. What makes Fiji worse is that there are multiple splits.

• Loyalists to Bainimarama
• Loyalists to the Chiefs
• The Police
• The Financial Power Brokers - ie Indians and Chinese (mainly Indian diaspora)

There is no love lost between the Army and the Police - and then there will be the divided loyalties within the army.

The Fijians are a good outfit - you definitely don't want to fight them when entrenched and prepared.

As much as I don't want to be cynical, I suspect that this will go badly as egoes are at stake now. If they had any sense they'd try to arrest Bainimarama for sedition while he's out of the country and then keep him in a cell until the elections are over. Arresting him 12 hours before the election would make sense - then they can hold him for 24 hrs and it will be all over anyway. ;)

[-{SpoonmaN}-]

Agree on displaying overwhelming force. What makes Fiji worse is that there are multiple splits.

• Loyalists to Bainimarama
• Loyalists to the Chiefs
• The Police
• The Financial Power Brokers - ie Indians and Chinese (mainly Indian diaspora)

There is no love lost between the Army and the Police - and then there will be the divided loyalties within the army.

The Fijians are a good outfit - you definitely don't want to fight them when entrenched and prepared.

As much as I don't want to be cynical, I suspect that this will go badly as egoes are at stake now. If they had any sense they'd try to arrest Bainimarama for sedition while he's out of the country and then keep him in a cell until the elections are over. Arresting him 12 hours before the election would make sense - then they can hold him for 24 hrs and it will be all over anyway. ;)

Not a bad idea, one question I have is how hard it would be for Hornets based in Queensland to fly strike and attack missions to Fiji? Would it even be possible?
If it is, then that may in itself serve to frighten off any attempt at standing against our Forces if they are called to intervene.

[Parihaka]

The only way we can arrest him is if Fiji issues the New Zealand police with a warrant, and we would then have to extradite him, which would simply lead to a direct confrontation with the Fiji police and army.

[Parihaka]

Fiji PM to meet army chief

November 27, 2006 11:00pm
Article from: Agence France-Presse

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FIJI Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase will hold a last-ditch summit with the island nation's maverick military commander amid growing fears of a coup, Fiji's information ministry has announced.

Qarase will meet tomorrow with Commodore Frank Bainimarama in the New Zealand capital, Wellington, where the military chief is on a private visit, the ministry said in a statement.<

Bainimarama had been expected to return to Fiji today.

Qarase was to leave Fiji for New Zealand this afternoon.

"I have always said that I am ready to meet directly with Commodore Bainimarama, and to do so with an open mind," he said in a statement.

"I am ready to listen to the commander on the concerns of the military."

Qarase said he was grateful to the government of New Zealand for arranging and facilitating the talks.

Tension has been rising in Fiji following threats by Bainimarama to overthrow the government unless it bows to his demands to scrap contentious legislation, including a bill that would pardon participants in the 2000 coup.

Fiji's Director of Public Prosecutions was due to announce today whether to pursue sedition charges against Bainimarama and other military officers.

"I am hopeful the outcome of the discussions between Mr Bainimarama and myself will defuse the situation in Fiji and provide a way of resolving the current crisis," Mr Qarase told Fiji commercial radio, before flying to Wellington in a New Zealand air force plane.

"I've always said I'm prepared to talk to Mr Bainimarama anytime, anywhere and now that anywhere is Wellington, New Zealand....it's neutral ground and it's a very good venue."

Bainimarama has been in New Zealand on a private visit for the christening of a granddaughter.

New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters will facilitate tomorrow's meeting between Qarase and Bainimarama.

"We offered to host the talks between the two and both parties have now accepted and that's going to take place tomorrow," a spokesman for Peters told NZPA.

Peters and Prime Minister Helen Clark would offer more details of the talks this afternoon, NZPA said.

[Parihaka]

NZ hosts last-ditch Fiji talks
Simon Kearney and Mark Dodd
November 29, 2006
NEW Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters will host peace talks in Wellington today between Fiji's warring military chief, Prime Minister and police commissioner.

However, a visit by top diplomats from Australia, Britain and the US to Suva's main barracks triggered a warning not to interfere from the military on the eve of the talks between Commander Frank Bainimarama, Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase and Police Commissioner Andrew Hughes.

The diplomatic manoeuvring yesterday included a bid by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to threaten the Fijian military with expulsion from UN peacekeeping operations, a source of national pride and valuable foreign currency for the nation, which has nearly a quarter of a million people living in poverty.

Mr Qarase flew out of Nausori airport, near Suva, yesterday afternoon, accompanied by Mr Hughes, en route to meet a Royal New Zealand Air Force plane in Nadi for the flight to Wellington, where he was welcomed by Prime Minister Helen Clark.

Commodore Bainimarama told a Fijian radio station it would be a short meeting and he would not give in on any of his demands, despite agreeing to stay in New Zealand for the talks.

Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, who continues to warn of an imminent coup in Fiji, welcomed confirmation of the talks.

Australia had been an active player in trying to bring both sides together, he said, adding: "I think the New Zealanders have been enormously helpful in using the opportunity of Commodore Bainimarama being in New Zealand for a christening to get in touch with him to try and find a solution to this problem."

Mr Downer denied the Wellington talks would upstage his own plans to host a meeting of Pacific foreign ministers this week.

The attempt by the top Australian, US and British diplomats in Suva to hold talks with senior military commanders in the absence of Commodore Bainimarama resulted in an angry rebuke from the Fijian military - but may have exposed a potential rift in their leadership.

Royal Fiji Military Force spokesman Major Neumi Leweni released a statement late yesterday saying that the "inappropriate" visit by diplomatic heads of the three missions, including Australian high commissioner Jennifer Rawson, could incite the situation and was viewed as an invasion.

Major Leweni revealed that the military call-up of 3000 reservists at the weekend was not only to aid Commodore Bainimarama's plans for the Government but also to prepare for "any" foreign intervention that might be recommended by a meeting of Pacific Islands Forum foreign ministers in Sydney on Friday.

"We have indicated in the past that the RFMF will strongly oppose any foreign intervention and this recall is an indication of how serious the institution is, and will prevent any such attempt," Major Leweni said.

However diplomats reported that the second and third in command of the Fijian forces had disagreed with their commander's views about the military's role in Fiji.

The diplomats sought and received assurances from deputy Fijian military commander Captain Esali Teleni and Land Force commander Colonel Pita Driti that they agreed with the three countries' views about the subordinate role of the military in a democracy.

Mr Qarase raised the stakes for Fijian forces yesterday when he revealed that Mr Annan had telephoned him and said he would warn Commodore Bainimarama that if the military took control, then they would be forced to withdraw from peacekeeping operations.

Mr Hughes, an Australian whom Commodore Bainimarama wants expelled, stood firm on his investigation of the commander yesterday.

He warned Fijian Director of Public Prosecutions Josaia Naigulevu that it would be a "weak" decision if he gave in to pressure not to recommend sedition charges against Commodore Bainimarama.

[Parihaka]

Interestingly enough there's a C17 parked at Wellington airport for the past few days that no-one will give an explanation for as to why it is there.....

[-{SpoonmaN}-]

I'm expecting us to make a pretty major deployment on this one. And I'm also expecting everyone to have a big cry about how our soldiers keep having to go overseas, because everyone is stupid.