Musharraf’s re-election before polls

[Ray]

Saturday, May 06, 2006 E-Mail this article to a friend Printer Friendly Version

News Analysis: Musharraf’s re-election before polls

By Rana Qaisar

ISLAMABAD: The ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML) and its allies want President General Pervez Musharraf get himself reelected as head of the state for a second term in office by the present electoral college – the senate, national and provincial assemblies.

The leaders of the PML and its allies, who have been putting forward this idea, are confident that the president would most likely prefer to be reelected next year before the expiry of the five-year term of the assemblies. The term of the president will expire simultaneously with the tenure of the National Assembly on November 15, 2007.

If Musharraf agrees to the proposal of the PML and its allies, he will, under Article 41(4) of the Constitution, opt for his reelection within 60 days before the expiry of his term on November 15, 2007. President Musharraf had taken oath of office a few hours before the National Assembly was sworn-in on November 16, 2002. Sources in the government say that in case the president chooses to be reelected by the next assemblies, the process will linger on for more than three months, as in the absence of the electoral college, with the assemblies being dissolved on the prescribed date; his reelection will take place in 2008 after the new assemblies take oath.

The political circles are confused and debate as to when the first term of General Musharraf as president of the country would end as he had assumed the office of the president by taking oath on June 20, 2001, and then held a presidential referendum in April 2002. Later, he had taken oath of the office for the second time in November 2002.

However, the legal advisors of the government opine that General Musharraf had become president in June 2001 under a “succession order” when former president Rafique Tarar had “ceased” to hold the office, therefore Musharraf’s stint in office from June 20, 2001 to November 16, 2002 would not be considered as his first term as president. On the other hand, the political managers of Musharraf are not expecting any “deal” with the two former prime ministers to pave the way for the president’s reelection as a consensus candidate without an opposition nominee contesting against him. Sources told Daily Times that the chances of a rapprochement with Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif were not bright.

While Nawaz has been categorically ruling out any possibility of a patch-up with Musharraf, Benazir too is not ready to accept the terms and conditions of the regime which is waiting for a “good news” from Switzerland where (Pakistan’s) National Accountability Bureau (NAB) is once again vigorously pursuing the cases against her, expecting a court verdict within this year.

Another reason that the PML and its allies are suggesting for President Musharraf’s reelection by the present assemblies is that they fear being sidelined in case of a “deal” with either of the two former prime ministers, who, especially Benazir, have so far not reconciled with the idea of working as subservient to a president in uniform. Sources close to the president, however, said the president had also not changed his mind vis-à-vis Benazir and Nawaz. They said what the president had been saying throughout was that an understanding was possible with the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) but without Benazir and Nawaz in the driving seat. However, observers opine that sincere efforts were not being made for a “deal” with Benazir or Nawaz as the government was following a policy to “engage” them to keep them suspecting each other so that they could not practically join hands against the president who had so far succeeded in his plan to disengage the two largest parties from power politics.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...6-5-2006_pg1_9

There is no doubt that Pakistan is a thriving democracy.

It is so successful a democracy that the PML is keen to get Musharraf re-elected before the term of the present Parliament expires. It does show the immense faith Musharraf and the PML have in this vibrant and independent Parliament that is current.

Obviously, since the President rules the govt instead of the PM, it must have been his desire too to repose this loving faith in this Parliament which he has nurtured with his won hands and got a govt that he himself likes.

The way how the President having his loved ones engage BB and NS so that each suspects the other of cutting a deal with the President indeed puts to shame the arch political strategist and tactician Machiavelli!

Who says Pakistan is a failed State?

It can teach a trick or two to the world!

[platinum786]

I don't care how he stas, as long as he stays.

[Lahori paa jee]

I have to find out more on this.

It is said that he is stuck in his own web. Its regarding his presidency and reelection. He has himself completed his two turns in office and cannot participate in next elections.

[platinum786]

he's hardly elected, like it matters.

we need an enforcing thing on top to make sure things go the right way...he's that...2-3 more years we won't need him, until then.

[Asim Aquil]

No this the end of his first term. The referrendum was when he started in full flow as president for 5 years.

He can be elected for another term. Then he'd have to quit, as president.

[Lahori paa jee]

No this the end of his first term. The referrendum was when he started in full flow as president for 5 years.

He can be elected for another term. Then he'd have to quit, as president.

My dears Asim and Platinum, Do really think he needs the cover of constitution to remain in power.

He is going to stay untill killed, forcefully removed or himself gives up. It really does not matter if he is elected or not

[Ray]

Ah now the point raised by the article about the tenures become clear.

I don't understand why it has to be two tenure limitation just because it is the policy of the US. At least, the issue should be as per the requirement of the country and not be merely a copycat persuasion.

That is if I have understood correctly that the President of Pakistan can limit himself to two tenures only!

It is a truism that Musharraf to remain as the President does not require the sanction of the Pakistani Parliament nor the sanction of the Pakistan people in the same way he required no ones sanction to organise the coup and take over Pakistan.

At least, to remain in power in perpetuity, he is doing a better job than King Gyanendra of Nepal!

[Ray]

SECOND EDITORIAL: Musharraf’s leaking legitimacy


There is talk in Muslim League circles in Islamabad that the current parliament, before it has run its course, should re-elect President Pervez Musharraf for a second term and let him remain army chief. The PMLQ is keen on this route because the new parliament after the 2007 polls might return the two mainstream parties PPP and PMLN in greater strength and thus qualify them as better candidates for a “deal” with President Musharraf. However, at the present time, he is not making any moves to conclude any “deals” with Ms Bhutto or Mr Sharif abroad, as is indicated by the aggressive stance the two have taken in their last meeting in London.

It is not wise for General Musharraf to heed PMLQ advice and base his legitimacy on a leg-up from a parliament that has virtually breathed its last. This route would leach him of whatever legitimacy he has now and make things difficult, if not dangerous, in days to come. The only way for him would be to make sure that if he goes with the current parliament he is able to successfully fight the presidential election as a civilian after the new parliament has been elected. *
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...7-5-2006_pg3_1

[Ray]

Sunday, May 07, 2006 E-Mail this article to a friend Printer Friendly Version

VIEW: The PML troubles and Musharraf —Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi

The civil and military establishment may find it difficult to manage the elections because the international community intends to carefully monitor the elections and the opposition political forces are more determined to take on the Musharraf government in the 2007 general elections, if not earlier

Pakistan’s current political scene reflects the typical dilemma of military-dominated political systems that rely heavily on rewards and punishments or denials to divide and weaken the opposition political parties, especially those viewed as the major adversaries. However, experience suggests that such policies also divide the co-opted political forces. As political patronage and material rewards are the key to creating a pro-military political conglomerate of diverse elements, the latter are unable to cultivate a long term shared political ideology and a framework for internal harmony. The “in-house” politics, based on mutual jealousies and competition for power and patronage, strains the military dominated political order.

President General Pervez Musharraf faces the uphill task of pacifying a number of senior leaders of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML) who have reservations about those managing party affairs — the current party chief, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, and his cousin and Punjab chief minister, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi. Some of these leaders called on President Musharraf on May 4. The PML leadership from Sindh held a meeting with him on May 5. Other PML leaders may call on him later. Zafarullah Khan Jamali, the first PML prime minister in the post-2002 election period, has criticised the management of party affairs in his recent statements.

The roots of the ruling PML can be traced to the PML-Quaid-i-Azam (Q) that emerged on the political scene in 2001 as a pro-Musharraf group. Prior to the military take-over in October 1999, PML-Q leaders were members of PML-Nawaz (N). They rejected the PML-N policy of confrontation with the military government and organised themselves as a faction within the PML-N. Later, they established themselves as a separate political entity — PML-Q.

The PML-Q contested the 2002 elections with the blessings of General Pervez Musharraf. It formed a coalition government at the federal level and assumed power in three provinces, the Punjab (a PML-Q government exclusively), Sindh (a coalition government with MQM and PML-F) and Balochistan (a coalition government with the MMA). In September 2003, the PML-Q and four other PML factions agreed in principle to merge. It was not until May 2004 that the legal and political obstacles were removed for establishing a unified PML. It included all PML factions with the exception of the PML-N, and two other parties (Sindh Democratic Alliance and the National Alliance) that were included in the ruling coalition.

The PML-Q leadership took over the unified PML but it faced internal problems from the beginning. The Pir of Pagara who led the PML-Functional decided to retain his separate party and left the unified PML within days. Since then the Pir of Pagara has opposed the leadership of Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain from the outside.

The second problem pertained to the efforts of Prime Minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali to assume the office of secretary-general of the unified PML. Jamali did not pursue the matter in view of opposition by Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and other party leaders. The consultations between Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and President Musharraf on the appointment of office bearers resulted in Mushahid Hussain Syed becoming the secretary-general.

Another problem emerged while trying to accommodate the chiefs of the merged factions/parties and other prominent leaders in the PML hierarchy. They wanted to take advantage of state patronage without compromising on their political salience. The chiefs of the factions were appointed senior vice-presidents. Several other leaders were also given posts of senior or regular vice-presidents. By early 2006 the PML had about 29 vice-presidents. However, the two Chaudhries and their close associates dominate party management.

PML’s problems are also linked with the rapid prime ministerial changes in June 2004 (Zafarullah Jamali, who resigned, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, who was appointed prime minister while Shaukat Aziz fulfilled the constitutional requirement to become prime minister) and September 2005 (when Shaukat Aziz replaced Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain). Though the party endorsed these changes, it was neither informed about the reasons for them nor consulted on the changes. The presidency rather than the party or the parliament was the repository of power in the political system.

Access to power and state patronage without a shared political ideology does not ensure harmonious interaction among diverse political interests. They often compete with each other which causes internal rifts in the political dispensation. It was not surprising that intra-party dissension surfaced in the PML in 2005-06. The Sindh PML faced a serious rift in 2005 when Imtiaz Sheikh fell out with Chief Minister Arbab Ghulam Rahim. But for the presidency’s intervention, the PML Sindh would have splintered.

The management of local government elections by the chief ministers of Sindh and the Punjab alienated PML leaders who did not have the blessings of their respective chief ministers. The determined effort by the Punjab chief minister to get his favourites elected as district and tehsil nazims in the 2005 local government elections alienated many senior PML leaders, including federal ministers and parliamentarians. The emergence of the forward bloc in the PML reflects dissatisfaction with the management of party affairs. The president and prime minister have discouraged the forward bloc, temporarily defusing the situation.

President Pervez Musharraf met PML leaders in September and November 2005 to defuse internal wrangling. During his visit to Lahore in November 2005, President Musharraf remarked that factionalism was an undesirable development.

This week, the president has again spent time on PML affairs. He went to his chamber in the parliament house after a long time to meet several political leaders. This was coupled with the meetings with PML leaders in the presidency.

The principal cause of PML factionalism is the personalised management by PML President Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and the Punjab party chief, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi who ignore the sensitivities of other senior party leaders. As long as they enjoy the blessings of President Musharraf they are likely to cope with internal challenges. However, if the president withholds his support the two PML leaders are likely to face a massive revolt.

If PML’s internal coherence depends on President Musharraf, the party is not likely to function as an effective political machine in the next general elections without relying on the state apparatus. If this is how the PML is to perform, President Musharraf will have to think again before relying on the party for dealing with complex issues like fair and free elections and the uniform issue.

President Musharraf needs a genuine political base to cope with the emerging situation — greater activity by the opposition, the possible return of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan, and holding fair and free elections. The existing political dispensation in Islamabad will not be able to mobilise enough popular support to address these issues. The civil and military establishment may find it difficult to manage the elections because the international community intends to carefully monitor the elections and the opposition political forces are more determined to take on the Musharraf government in the 2007 general elections, if not earlier.

Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi is a political and defence analyst

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...7-5-2006_pg3_2

[Srirangan]

I bet it will be a 98% yes vote referrandum again. Talk about fake aencounters!

[Ray]

They will be fake, because Musharraf's head will be at stake!

The average Moslem of Pakistan is just waiting to do a Bhutto!

Islam and Pakistan has been sold by M to the highest bidder!

The Moslems are not known to be a forgiving lot!

[Gautam]

They will be fake, becasue Musharraf's head will be at stake!

The average Moslem of Paksitan is jsut waiting to do a Bhutto!

Well once they get in Bhutto, who knows if another ZIA or MUSHARAFF is hiding in shadows.

3-4 years down the line another Bhutto hanged & Pakistan is back to square one

Intriguing

[Srirangan]

Stuck in the doldrums of slavery to the Fauj and the masters of the Fauj (USA< Arabia and China).

[Ray]

An Update for Lahori.

Monday, May 08, 2006 E-Mail this article to a friend Printer Friendly Version

MMA split over anti-govt campaign


LAHORE: The component parties of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Aamal (MMA) have expressed reservations about the decision by alliance president Qazi Hussain Ahmed and General Secretary Maulana Fazlur Rehman to launch an anti-government movement.

They have accused the two leaders of taking a “confused” decision without consulting the components of the six-party alliance.

Sources said that that the Jamiat Ahle Hadith Pakistan (JAHP), the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Sami (JUI-S) and the Millat-e-Jafferia said that the MMA president and general secretary were negotiating with the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy to launch a joint struggle against the government, and had announced an anti-administration drive at the same time. Such a move would damage the opposition’s objective of toppling the government by the end of 2006, they said.

Sources said that the Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan-Noorani (JUP-N) had also protested against the decision to launch an anti government drive “in the hottest spell of summer and without proper planning”. Party chief Anas Noorani was of the view that the Jamaat-e-Islami and the JUI-Fazl, the parent parties of the MMA president and general secretary, wanted to launch their membership campaigns “under the guise” of an anti-government movement, JUP-N leaders said. Such a movement should be launched according to a “perfect schedule”, so that the people could be motivated through public meetings for the proposed long march towards Islamabad, he said. JAHP chief Prof Sajid Mir was of the view that the MMA’s “premature” movement would “create a gulf” among the opposition parties, which could benefit the ruling coalition, party sources said. staff report
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...-5-2006_pg7_18

[Ray]

Monday, May 08, 2006 E-Mail this article to a friend Printer Friendly Version

VIEW: Reading tea leaves — Syed Mansoor Hussain

Pakistan has perhaps the only ‘democratic’ setup where in preparation for the next general election a supposedly elected government is expected to resign and be replaced by a non-elected ‘impartial caretaker’ government. Clearly, if the government does resign, it will be replaced by a caretaker government of its choice

Somebody recently asked me to sketch different political scenarios that might unfold over the next year. Why me? Simply because very few people if any at all have any idea about what is going to happen before the next elections and therefore my opinions are probably as valid as almost anybody else’s. The only person who really does have any reliable idea about what might happen is obviously President General Pervez Musharraf, and if his public statements are to be believed it seems that the present dispensation will continue unchanged, albeit with minor tinkering at the edges.

In the absence of unforeseen political or social cataclysms, certain things can then be predicted with reasonable certitude. First, the new and improved Pakistan Muslim League (Q) will win an absolute majority in the National Assembly and most likely in the provincial assembly in the Punjab. In Sindh, Balochistan and the Frontier it will probably need allies to form governments. Second, the MMA will not be able to repeat its previous performance, but at the same time is not going to wither on the vine. Third, without Benazir Bhutto back in Pakistan, the Pakistan People’s Party (the real one) will very likely wither on the vine.

The first question in such a scenario is going to be whether Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi will become the next prime minister of Pakistan. Recently he has vociferously denied any such intentions and that suggests beyond reasonable doubt that he is thinking about it. Here, it is quite possible that he might be presented with the Punjab — an offer he cannot refuse. In that case it is very likely that Shaukat Aziz will continue in his present position. Many political ‘insiders’ feel that Mr Aziz does not have any staying power. I beg to differ, and that is probably because I am not a political insider.

The second question is about the role of the MQM. After the elections, the PML-Q will expect to form a government in the centre by itself. Therefore it might not be as ‘nice’ to the MQM as it is these days. Being ideologically disparate, a pre-election alliance between them is unlikely. If no accommodation is made before the elections between these two members of the present ruling coalition, both of them might decide to go at it alone in Sindh. This could then put Sindh in play between the PPP, the MQM and the PML (Q+F?).

The third question will be about the legitimacy of such elections. Most international and objective local observers will presume that the election is neither free nor fair if Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto are not allowed to return to Pakistan and lead their respective parties in the election campaigns. Moreover, the active participation of the public often known as the ‘common man’ in an election without these two will probably be even less than those for the local government last year.

Even if the present dispensation is to be kept intact until next year, there are confounding factors that might come into play and influence the political situation. Some of these are internal and some external. Of the internal factors, the most important are of course the continuing unrest in both of our western provinces. If for any reason either of these two situations start to spin out of control, this might create an environment where business as usual might become untenable.

Of the external factors, the most important ones relate to the US. The first of these is what happens between the US and Iran over the nuclear impasse. If for any reason a military strike is initiated by the US against Iranian nuclear facilities, this will give rise to a wave of intense anti-US feelings in Pakistan creating great pressure on the existing US friendly policy and those that are felt to be responsible for this policy. The second variable is the upcoming mid-term elections in the US.

Present predictions seem to suggest that the Democratic Party might be able to win back at least one and possibly both houses of the US Congress. In an effort to prevent this from happening, the Bush administration will put extreme pressure on the government in Pakistan to deliver Bin Laden before the election as an ‘October surprise’ and there seems to be pressure building up about this already. If the government in Pakistan obliges, then again this could make the present dispensation extremely unpopular.

Over the last few weeks, the ruling party has been going through conniptions evidently designed to strengthen its position in the upcoming elections. Players not heard from in a while are suddenly in the limelight again. The problem unfortunately remains that a majority of these ‘players’ can win a general election only if the full force of government is behind them. So the dilemma seems to be to have the ‘government’ stage manage the elections to produce a desirable result while maintaining the fiction that the election is truly free and fair.

That brings me to one of the most bizarre things about Pakistani elections. Pakistan has perhaps the only ‘democratic’ set-up where in preparation for the next general election a supposedly elected government is expected to resign and be replaced by a non-elected ‘impartial caretaker’ government. Clearly, if the government does resign, it will be replaced by a caretaker government of its choice — it isn’t going to nominate a government not of its choice, is it? Moreover if a political government going into an election is replaced then all the good things political governments do to make things better for the ‘common man’ in preparation for elections won’t happen.

Finally, nothing much is going to happen for the next few months, much too hot for it. Though there will be considerable increase in foreign travel among our movers and shakers, leading to wild rumours about political deals in the making.

Syed Mansoor Hussain has practised and taught medicine in the US. He can be reached at [email protected]
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...8-5-2006_pg3_2

Lahori,

What is your interpretation when you read the tea leaves?