What would a Taiwan invasion scenario involving conventional weaponry look like?

Star Hostage: TSMC, China’s Drive to Conquer Taiwan, and the Race to Win AI Superiority
By: Matthew Brazil, Matthew Gabriel Cazel Brazil
China Brief Volume: 25 Issue: 2

Executive Summary:
  • Talent flows uncovered between Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) operations in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and several sanctioned PRC firms constitute risks to the company’s position at the leading edge of the global chip industry.
  • TSMC’s transition to encompass other parts of the value chain, ostensibly to avoid monopoly concerns, exacerbates these risks.
  • If TSMC cedes its dominance, the deterrent effect of Taiwan’s “silicon shield” would be greatly reduced. It could also affect Washington’s support for Taiwan.
  • The company has begun to diversify by setting up fabrication plants in the United States in an effort that has been encouraged by its main customers, including Western tech giants such as Apple and Nvidia.
https://jamestown.org/program/star-hostage-tsmc-chinas-drive-to-conquer-taiwan-and-the-race-to-win-ai-superiority/
 
The Economic Effects of a Potential Armed Conflict Over Taiwan
St Louis Federal Reserve, February 26, 2025, By Christopher J. Neely

Abstract
This article examines the likely economic effects of a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan for the U.S. and the world by considering historical precedents. Such a conflict would likely produce a flight-to-safety in the asset market, huge disruptions in international trade, and banking problems, and it would greatly exacerbate existing fiscal pressures. The authorities of the People’s Republic of China would probably try to sell U.S. and other western securities prior to a conflict to avoid sanctions on those assets. Such sales would be temporarily disruptive but would likely have only marginal effects on yields in the longer term. Long-term effects would include disrupted trade, higher price levels, higher levels of nominal debt, and higher taxes.


https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2025/feb/economic-effects-of-potential-armed-conflict-over-taiwan?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=202503Researc h Newsletter&utm_content=202503Research Newsletter+CID_7e033cdfd5fb0ea94e50d72d0580327c&ut m_source=Research newsletter&utm_term=conflict over Taiwan



FYI, when the Fed starts looking at the cost of conflict, it is probably too late.
 
DOR said:
The Economic Effects of a Potential Armed Conflict Over Taiwan
St Louis Federal Reserve, February 26, 2025, By Christopher J. Neely

Abstract
This article examines the likely economic effects of a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan for the U.S. and the world by considering historical precedents. Such a conflict would likely produce a flight-to-safety in the asset market, huge disruptions in international trade, and banking problems, and it would greatly exacerbate existing fiscal pressures. The authorities of the People’s Republic of China would probably try to sell U.S. and other western securities prior to a conflict to avoid sanctions on those assets. Such sales would be temporarily disruptive but would likely have only marginal effects on yields in the longer term. Long-term effects would include disrupted trade, higher price levels, higher levels of nominal debt, and higher taxes.


https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2025/feb/economic-effects-of-potential-armed-conflict-over-taiwan?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=202503Researc h Newsletter&utm_content=202503Research Newsletter+CID_7e033cdfd5fb0ea94e50d72d0580327c&ut m_source=Research newsletter&utm_term=conflict over Taiwan



FYI, when the Fed starts looking at the cost of conflict, it is probably too late.
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In the absence of any real motive for doing so? They'd be telegraphing their intentions to the world. Mind you so would the necessity of having to preposition all the assets needed for an invasion so there's that I guess. If Chinese government ever makes the decision to go in they'll be be committed to going ALL in so I assume the sell off would be a thing anyway. It would be a costly exercise though (the sell off) . The war itself being costly? Is a already given.
 
Mithridates said:
How long would it take for China to prevail, assuming American and Japanese intervention, if ever? What if the intervention only involved funding, keeping the shipping lanes open and providing supplies of both food and weaponry, including new weapons systems where deemed necessary?
Click to expand...


USA is a broke economy. West Will eat grass if they go for war against China
 
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