What would a Taiwan invasion scenario involving conventional weaponry look like?

Since the Communist Party’s legitimacy is based in part on a pledge to “unify” China, its hold on the country’s 1.4 billion people could weaken if it allowed Taiwan to become an independent country. And while any invasion even of outlying islands carries the risks of economic sanctions or a destabilizing conflict, threats issued in state-run media allow Beijing to appeal to a domestic audience and deter Taiwan at the same time.
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The mantra is BS on on wheels. Its legitimacy is based on its ability to crush any opposition to its policies ruthlessly, up to and including running them over with tanks. Whatever foreign policy it chooses to set is holy writ to the populace. Or else. The principal risk comes from senior party members who use Taiwanese independence as a wedge to lever themselves into power at the sitting dictator's expense. But even that would require a critical mass of disaffected senior people in key positions with the security services who are worked up enough to turf the current guy and resign themselves to the uncertain aftermath of even a successful coup. Because coups are generally the kick-off whistle for a mad scramble for power. At then end of which many of the plotters could end up dead at the hands of their coup plotter associates. Each of whom is making his bid for supreme power.
 
Pew Research has come up with Historic High Unfavorable Estimates for China -- https://www.pewresearch.org/global/...-china-reach-historic-highs-in-many-countries . Along with the efforts of Pompeo's administration to satanize Chinese international collaboration around the Globe, this tendency actually leaves the Dragon with nothing to loose from showing its authoritarian character once again to the World. Moreover it makes Chinese look weaker, provided they do not demonstrate their authority, although humanitarian aspects and the negative perspective of Donald Trump for the upcoming elections are not to be ignored. Whoever tend to believe that from Washington are ready to start another WW because of Taiwan, the initiated selling of high-tech weaponry to the Taiwanese government seems to refute this. It is more likely the USA try to strengthen their Second Cold War scenario against the Asian Powers with heavier stance of embracing Europe and wherever there are others against them
 
m a x said:
It is more likely the USA try to strengthen their Second Cold War scenario against the Asian Powers with heavier stance of embracing Europe and wherever there are others against them
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Europe is embracing the Indo Pacific. Germany recently joined France.

Germany Joins the ‘Indo-Pacific’ Club | The Diplomat | Sept 03 2020

The German push punctuates the growing mood of distemper toward China throughout Europe, stemming from Beijing’s recent crackdown in Hong Kong, its harsh treatment of the Uyghurs in the Xinjiang region of western China, and the increasingly coercive methods it has used to quell opposition to Chinese policies.

The full-bore diplomatic and state media assault that greeted this week’s visit to Taiwan of Czechia’s Senate President Milos Vystrčil, whom the CCP’s tabloid mouthpiece Global Times denounced as a “political hooligan” who was “trampling on diplomatic civilization,” is likely to undermine China’s attempts at European damage control.

As French President Emanuel Macron declared during a European Council meeting in March last year, “the time of European naiveté [towards China] is over.”
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The Czech Senate President's trip to Taiwan is appreciated.
 
Here's Ian Easton. He thinks it will be harder to prevent a straits crisis because the CCP will draw the lesson that the world didn't do a whole lot about Xianjiang and HK

 
Given the recent saber-rattling by the PLAAF, it would be interesting to know whether or not the Taiwanese are finally starting to take the possibility of an invasion seriously. And by seriously, I mean begin to spend real money on defense instead of frittering it away on social spending and green initiatives.
 
That would be on the Americans rather than Taipei. If DC offers up the F-35, you can bet Taipei will find the money somewhere to buy them. In fact, I cannot think of one sale that Taiwan turned down.
 
Taiwan More Vulnerable to Missile Attack Than Israel
Experts agree island’s air defenses can’t pull off what Israel’s did

AsiaSentinel, Oct 14, 2024 (Paywall)

Could Taiwan withstand the kind of barrage from the mainland that Israel has faced over recent weeks and survive relatively unscathed? Iran has fired more than 500 drones and missiles at Israel in two massive attacks in April and September without however coming anyway near to causing the scale of damage it had hoped to achieve.

As the overwhelming majority of projectiles were downed by Israel and allied forces, only one person was reported killed and no weapons, aircraft or critical infrastructure were damaged, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The IDF also said that its F-35 stealth fighters intercepted many cruise missiles before they entered Israeli air space, with the air defense system Arrow dealing with most of the ballistic missiles that went through. The next element in the tier, David's Sling, protected against short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, while the Iron Dome intercepted unguided rockets and drones heading for residential areas…
 
DOR said:
Taiwan More Vulnerable to Missile Attack Than Israel
Experts agree island’s air defenses can’t pull off what Israel’s did

AsiaSentinel, Oct 14, 2024 (Paywall)

Could Taiwan withstand the kind of barrage from the mainland that Israel has faced over recent weeks and survive relatively unscathed? Iran has fired more than 500 drones and missiles at Israel in two massive attacks in April and September without however coming anyway near to causing the scale of damage it had hoped to achieve.

As the overwhelming majority of projectiles were downed by Israel and allied forces, only one person was reported killed and no weapons, aircraft or critical infrastructure were damaged, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The IDF also said that its F-35 stealth fighters intercepted many cruise missiles before they entered Israeli air space, with the air defense system Arrow dealing with most of the ballistic missiles that went through. The next element in the tier, David's Sling, protected against short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, while the Iron Dome intercepted unguided rockets and drones heading for residential areas…
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The quantitative and qualitative scale of the threat are an order of magnitude different. For a start Iran and it's proxies can't hope to match the EW capabilities and pen aids etc that China could bring to the party (nor the diversity for that matter either) . That said even a highly successful missile offensive, no matter how intense by itself doesn't amount to a successful invasion. That requires 'boots on the ground' and that's where the problem for China lies.

As lay person? And for what it's worth I can see China staging a successful if costly landing. The problem that China has is that even if the US can't intervene in that landing operation (or tries and fails)? The IS still has the capacity initiate a deep water blockade of the Chinese mainland to with China confined to 'controlling' the South China Sea. Any such blockade would effectively sever most of China's trade links with the rest of the world in one stroke. And China's only effective scoutmaster would be to try and challenge the US and it's Allies in a blue water naval conflict in the Eastern Pacific and the choke points near Japan, Korea and the Philippines etc. And that battle, in the foreseeable future? I think it would lose.

So in that scenario we'd see Chinese forces in place on Taiwan if not in full control but the Chinese Navy and its economy bottled up in the SCS. In the long term that the outcome favors the US, Taiwan and of course Taiwan even if China does actually force Taiwan to surrender. My chief question though is if China did manage to force Taiwan to lay down arms would the US Government concede or continue to prosecute the war regardless knowing it had the upper hand in the long term.
 
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Star Hostage: TSMC, China’s Drive to Conquer Taiwan, and the Race to Win AI Superiority
By: Matthew Brazil, Matthew Gabriel Cazel Brazil
China Brief Volume: 25 Issue: 2

Executive Summary:
  • Talent flows uncovered between Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) operations in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and several sanctioned PRC firms constitute risks to the company’s position at the leading edge of the global chip industry.
  • TSMC’s transition to encompass other parts of the value chain, ostensibly to avoid monopoly concerns, exacerbates these risks.
  • If TSMC cedes its dominance, the deterrent effect of Taiwan’s “silicon shield” would be greatly reduced. It could also affect Washington’s support for Taiwan.
  • The company has begun to diversify by setting up fabrication plants in the United States in an effort that has been encouraged by its main customers, including Western tech giants such as Apple and Nvidia.
https://jamestown.org/program/star-hostage-tsmc-chinas-drive-to-conquer-taiwan-and-the-race-to-win-ai-superiority/
 
The Economic Effects of a Potential Armed Conflict Over Taiwan
St Louis Federal Reserve, February 26, 2025, By Christopher J. Neely

Abstract
This article examines the likely economic effects of a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan for the U.S. and the world by considering historical precedents. Such a conflict would likely produce a flight-to-safety in the asset market, huge disruptions in international trade, and banking problems, and it would greatly exacerbate existing fiscal pressures. The authorities of the People’s Republic of China would probably try to sell U.S. and other western securities prior to a conflict to avoid sanctions on those assets. Such sales would be temporarily disruptive but would likely have only marginal effects on yields in the longer term. Long-term effects would include disrupted trade, higher price levels, higher levels of nominal debt, and higher taxes.


https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2025/feb/economic-effects-of-potential-armed-conflict-over-taiwan?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=202503Researc h Newsletter&utm_content=202503Research Newsletter+CID_7e033cdfd5fb0ea94e50d72d0580327c&ut m_source=Research newsletter&utm_term=conflict over Taiwan



FYI, when the Fed starts looking at the cost of conflict, it is probably too late.
 
DOR said:
The Economic Effects of a Potential Armed Conflict Over Taiwan
St Louis Federal Reserve, February 26, 2025, By Christopher J. Neely

Abstract
This article examines the likely economic effects of a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan for the U.S. and the world by considering historical precedents. Such a conflict would likely produce a flight-to-safety in the asset market, huge disruptions in international trade, and banking problems, and it would greatly exacerbate existing fiscal pressures. The authorities of the People’s Republic of China would probably try to sell U.S. and other western securities prior to a conflict to avoid sanctions on those assets. Such sales would be temporarily disruptive but would likely have only marginal effects on yields in the longer term. Long-term effects would include disrupted trade, higher price levels, higher levels of nominal debt, and higher taxes.


https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2025/feb/economic-effects-of-potential-armed-conflict-over-taiwan?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=202503Researc h Newsletter&utm_content=202503Research Newsletter+CID_7e033cdfd5fb0ea94e50d72d0580327c&ut m_source=Research newsletter&utm_term=conflict over Taiwan



FYI, when the Fed starts looking at the cost of conflict, it is probably too late.
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In the absence of any real motive for doing so? They'd be telegraphing their intentions to the world. Mind you so would the necessity of having to preposition all the assets needed for an invasion so there's that I guess. If Chinese government ever makes the decision to go in they'll be be committed to going ALL in so I assume the sell off would be a thing anyway. It would be a costly exercise though (the sell off) . The war itself being costly? Is a already given.
 
Mithridates said:
How long would it take for China to prevail, assuming American and Japanese intervention, if ever? What if the intervention only involved funding, keeping the shipping lanes open and providing supplies of both food and weaponry, including new weapons systems where deemed necessary?
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USA is a broke economy. West Will eat grass if they go for war against China
 
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