What would a Taiwan invasion scenario involving conventional weaponry look like?

[Suika2]

Taiwan probably shouldn't be compared to Israel. There are a number of key differences to their circumstances. One is that the PRC is the top security concern of Taiwan, not a number of small Middle East countries. When it comes to PRC, security is not limited to number of soldiers or amount of military equipment. Economic, technological, and diplomatic power are absolutely critical and all those things require financial investment. If Taiwan defense spending at 5% for a standing army, then it would further reduce long term investment in technology and economic power which would make Taiwan even more economically and diplomatically dependent on outside countries. Israel threats are active activities from Iranian and other forces. Taiwan's threat from the PRC is a long term balance of power struggle. 10% Defense spending is not going to matter much when dealing with a long run competition with the PRC.

 

[Double Edge]

Taiwan probably shouldn't be compared to Israel. There are a number of key differences to their circumstances. One is that the PRC is the top security concern of Taiwan, not a number of small Middle East countries. When it comes to PRC, security is not limited to number of soldiers or amount of military equipment. Economic, technological, and diplomatic power are absolutely critical and all those things require financial investment. If Taiwan defense spending at 5% for a standing army, then it would further reduce long term investment in technology and economic power which would make Taiwan even more economically and diplomatically dependent on outside countries. Israel threats are active activities from Iranian and other forces. Taiwan's threat from the PRC is a long term balance of power struggle. 10% Defense spending is not going to matter much when dealing with a long run competition with the PRC.

Could you please introduce yourself here

http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/showthread.php?t=61571&page=137&p=1052717#post1052717

 

[Double Edge]

‘Too costly’: Chinese military strategist warns now is not the time to take back Taiwan by force | SCMP | May 04 2020

That the author of Unrestricted Warfare, General Qiao Liang makes this comment means there are others in China asking the question

Qiao Liang, a retired air force major general who is seen as a hawkish voice in China, made the remarks as nationalistic sentiment is rising in the mainland, with calls for Beijing to take action on issues like pro-independence forces in Taiwan and Washington’s criticism over the pandemic.

“China’s ultimate goal is not the reunification of Taiwan, but to achieve the dream of national rejuvenation – so that all 1.4 billion Chinese can have a good life,” Qiao, a professor at the PLA National Defence University in Beijing, said in an interview on Monday.

“Could it be achieved by taking Taiwan back? Of course not. So we shouldn’t make this the top priority.

If Beijing wants to take Taiwan back by force, it will need to mobilise all its resources and power to do this,” he said. “You shouldn’t put all your eggs in one basket, it’s too costly.”

Beijing sees the self-ruled island as part of its territory that must return to the mainland fold, and calls for reunification are growing louder.

Some retired military leaders have suggested the United States is not in a position to defend Taiwan at present because all four of its aircraft carriers in the Indo-Pacific have been hit by Covid-19 outbreaks.

In a social media post on Monday, Qiao said nationalism appeared to be driving some proposals being raised in China, and that they would harm the country.

“It’s undeniable that the US has been in a hurry to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic, and its military strength is reduced … however [the virus crisis] just creates a short tactical window [for China] which is not big enough to solve the strategic dilemma it will face in the future – unless it’s almost certain that Covid-19 will lead to the collapse of the United States,” he wrote on WeChat.

Qiao said while a move by the PLA to take Taiwan by force may not prompt Washington to declare war, it could join forces with its allies in the region to use their sea and air advantages to cut off Beijing’s maritime lifeline in the South China Sea.

He said other Western countries may also be convinced to impose sanctions on Beijing that would curb the country’s economic development.

He said Washington’s move to label Beijing as a strategic competitor had informed his views on the direction of US-China relations. Qiao added that Beijing should make clear that its top priority was not to take Taiwan back but to achieve its long-term goal of “national rejuvenation” – President Xi Jinping’s so-called Chinese dream of becoming a fully developed nation by 2049.

“The Taiwan issue is actually a key problem between China and the US, even though we have insisted it is China’s domestic issue,” he said.

“In other words, the Taiwan issue cannot be completely resolved unless the rivalry between Beijing and Washington is resolved.”

Qiao also noted that the Chinese economy was still heavily reliant on the US dollar, and said a war over Taiwan would be a massive economic blow for China that would see capital flooding out of the country and many companies being forced to close.

“This would just be a huge price to pay and it would jeopardise China’s goal of national rejuvenation,” he said.

 

[m a x]

China would further worsen its own international reputation if they take over Taiwan with conventional military means, as expected to cost many human lives. It is more wisely they try something unconventional, though they do not have another Vladimir Putin to plan and make it successfully on the ground

 

[DOR]

China would further worsen its own international reputation if they take over Taiwan with conventional military means, as expected to cost many human lives. It is more wisely they try something unconventional, though they do not have another Vladimir Putin to plan and make it successfully on the ground

“another Vladimir Putin to plan and make it successfully on the ground“ ?
WTF?

 

[Double Edge]

This essay appeared in the US Naval Institute magazine under the 'Fiction' section back in Aug :smile:

The War That Never Was? | Aug 2020

Best time to take Taiwan is Jan 2021

By Admiral James A. Winnefeld, U.S. Navy (Retired), and Michael J. Morell

The beginning of major state-on-state conflict is almost always a surprise . . . at least to one of the two sides. The China–Taiwan conflict of early 2021 was no exception. The overlapping factors that brought it about now seem so obvious in retrospect. First, the convergence of Thucydides’ three sources of conflict—fear, honor, and interest—was unprecedented at the time. On top of this, Chinese recognition of a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and leader Xi Jinping’s eagerness to solidify his re-election in 2023 made it almost inevitable.

As China’s leaders began to consider their response options, they sensed an opportunity emerging in late November. No one was surprised that the U.S. election results turned out to be contentious and contested—indeed, senior Chinese leaders were aware of the Russian influence campaign intended to amplify American divisions. But the degree of enmity surrounding the prolonged cases in multiple state and federal courts, rising to violence in a number of major metropolitan areas, rose beyond what Beijing thought likely.

It soon became clear to the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) that the 2021 U.S. political transition would be an even more vulnerable time than usual for U.S. decision-making. Xi, needing his own political win before his 2023 re-election, argued to his hand-picked allies on the Committee that such an opportunity would only appear every few decades. Once the members came to agreement that China would be willing to suffer what it believed would be temporary and half-hearted opprobrium from the international community in exchange for achievement of a long-held goal, the die was cast. The PBSC decided in mid-December to place in motion Operation Red Province—to bring Taiwan back into China.

The PRC deliberately ratcheted up tensions with the island in December 2020 and commenced a major military exercise along its east coast in early January that was ostensibly designed to be a signal to Taiwan. The West, distracted by the U.S. election drama and the ongoing pandemic, viewed this as mere saber-rattling.

The operation unfolded quickly, beginning on the evening of 18 January, two days before the scheduled—and still in-doubt—U.S. presidential inauguration. A message was transmitted to Taiwan’s leaders that they had the option of immediate peaceful capitulation or armed coercion, and that in the case of the former there would be no recriminations.

Simultaneously, a series of closely coordinated Chinese military moves unfolded that were intended to put a stranglehold on Taiwan and deter any other nation from interfering. All over Taiwan, Chinese intelligence operatives and special forces not in uniform–China’s own “little green men”—emerged to take control of key facilities and sabotage military facilities. A host of cyberattacks crippled Taiwan’s public media and took down key elements of the power grid. The attack on Taiwan was underway.

Chinese forces previously engaged in the exercise swiftly turned their attention across the Strait, and, after tough resistance on the ground, seized several islands claimed by Taiwan, including Quemoy, Matsu, and the Penghus. Peoples Liberation Army Navy submarines deployed to close the northern and southern entrances to the Taiwan Strait, and also deployed east of Taiwan to prepare for potential action against U.S. Navy ships. Any Taiwan Navy surface ships underway were engaged quickly and sunk. Chinese media highlighted the presence of thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles in launching positions capable of targeting key facilities on Taiwan. An immediate sea and air blockade of the island was announced, pending Taipei’s decision on Beijing’s ultimatum.

Meanwhile, China’s “Wolf Warrior Diplomats” commenced an engagement blitz to offer carrots and sticks to governments across the globe to support, or at least not resist, this important and long-needed move by China. Particular care was taken with Japan to ensure it was clear to the government of Japan that any support provided to a U.S. response would be considered hostile action against China.

In Washington, Chinese Ambassador Cui Tiankai summoned the head of the State Department’s Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs to the embassy on the morning of 19 January, delivering an explicit warning to the United States not to intervene, noting that China would take all necessary measures to prevent such interference. Similar warnings were delivered to Australia, Japan, South Korea, and other close U.S. allies. A sudden, mysterious power outage in Indianapolis that afternoon was loosely attributed to a Chinese cyberattack, which seemed carefully calibrated not to provoke the United States, but to suggest “We can do more.”

 

[Double Edge]

This one isn't fiction and Seth Cropsey thinks the week of Nov 3 is best for a Chinese grab on Taiwan.


The US election could be a danger for Taiwan, an opportunity for China | The Hill | Sept 17 2020

America’s partisan enmity has become so intense that any result in November will be contested; a country embroiled in a succession crisis is much less likely to intervene in a high-end great-power conflict. There may never be a better moment for China to strike than the week of Nov. 3.

To win, China must occupy and subjugate the entire island — and an insurgency, based in Taiwan’s mountainous center, is to be expected. While this is a fight China considers winnable, it must bring to bear all its capabilities.

This will be impossible if China, unable to isolate Taiwan from the rest of the Pacific, faces the combined forces of the U.S. and its allies. Japanese, Australian and Philippine forces, fighting alongside forward-deployed U.S. air forces, carrier strike groups and submarines, will broaden and escalate the conflict. South Korea could become involved if the North chose to capitalize on the confusion and strike; even Vietnam and India could be drawn into a widening war. This conflict’s outcome is far from certain. But a long, brutal fight on multiple fronts will not serve China’s interests, particularly if an American blockade strangles China’s economy and prompts domestic unrest.

China’s military is, therefore, built to fight a short war, relying on long-range missiles and progressively layered defenses to isolate areas near the Chinese coastline. By raising the costs of American intervention, China seeks a political-military solution to its central strategic problem. Without U.S. coordination and support, Asia’s isolated states will fall, one by one, to Chinese power.

 

[Double Edge]

And another

Here’s What Could Happen If China Invaded Taiwan | Bloomberg | Oct 08 2020

People are having these premonitions

“I am increasingly concerned that a major crisis is coming,” said Ian Easton, senior director at the Project 2049 Institute who wrote “The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy in Asia.” “It is possible to envision this ending in an all-out invasion attempt and superpower war. The next five to 10 years are going to be dangerous ones. This flash point is fundamentally unstable.”

Analysts such as Easton have gamed out scenarios of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan for years, based on military exercises, arms purchases and strategy documents from the major players. Most of them foresee China going for a quick knockout, in which the PLA overwhelms the main island before the U.S. could help out.

The US uses strategic ambiguity when it comes to Taiwan. This does not mean the US will not help out.

Taiwan will be among the most pressing security issues facing whoever wins the U.S. election on Nov. 3. While Taipei has enjoyed a resurgence of bipartisan support in Washington and the Trump administration has made unprecedented overtures,

President Donald Trump himself has expressed skepticism about Taiwan’s strategic value.

Democratic nominee Joe Biden has previously said Congress should decide whether the U.S. should defend Taiwan in any attack.

The typical senario

On paper, the military balance heavily favors Beijing. China spends about 25 times more on its military than Taiwan, according to estimates from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and has a clear conventional edge on everything from missiles and fighter jets to warships and troop levels — not to mention its nuclear arsenal.

Beijing’s optimistic version of events goes something like this: Prior to an invasion, cyber and electronic warfare units would target Taiwan’s financial system and key infrastructure, as well as U.S. satellites to reduce notice of impending ballistic missiles. Chinese vessels could also harass ships around Taiwan, restricting vital supplies of fuel and food.

Airstrikes would quickly aim to kill Taiwan’s top political and military leaders, while also immobilizing local defenses. The Chinese military has described some drills as “decapitation” exercises, and satellite imagery shows its training grounds include full-scale replicas of targets such as the Presidential Office Building.

An invasion would follow, with PLA warships and submarines traversing some 130 kilometers (80 miles) across the Taiwan Strait. Outlying islands such as Kinmen and Pratas could be quickly subsumed before a fight for the Penghu archipelago, which sits just 50 kilometers from Taiwan and is home to bases for all three branches of its military. A PLA win here would provide it with a valuable staging point for a broader attack.

As Chinese ships speed across the strait, thousands of paratroopers would appear above Taiwan’s coastlines, looking to penetrate defenses, capture strategic buildings and establish beachheads through which the PLA could bring in tens of thousands of soldiers who would secure a decisive victory.

In reality, any invasion is likely to be much riskier. Taiwan has prepared for one for decades, even if lately it has struggled to match China’s growing military advantage.

 

[Oracle]

^ Script of a Hollywood war movie. The thing is, can China actually do it. The most important point, if China tries to do it, will America intervene.

 

[Double Edge]

Can they do it ? Yes. Not a question of if but when

Will they do it ? this is less clear.

Aren't we seeing the same chest puffing here like on our border

As for the US this is what the Bloomberg article had to say

The potential involvement of the U.S. is a key wild card when assessing an invasion scenario. American naval power has long deterred China from any attack, even though the U.S. scrapped its mutual defense treaty with Taiwan in 1979 as a condition for establishing diplomatic ties with Beijing. The Taiwan Relations Act authorizes American weapons sales to “maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.”

Failing to intervene could hurt U.S. prestige on scale similar to the U.K.’s failed bid to regain control of the Suez Canal in 1956, Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, wrote on Sept. 25. That crisis accelerated the disintegration of the British Empire and signaled the pound’s decline as a reserve currency in favor of the dollar, Dalio said.

“The more of a show the U.S. makes of defending Taiwan the greater the humiliation of a lost war,” he said. “That is concerning because the United States has been making quite a show of defending Taiwan while destiny appears to be bringing that closer to a reality.”

China’s Anti-Secession Law is vague on what would actually trigger an armed conflict. Its state-run media have warned that any U.S. military deployment to Taiwan would trigger a war — one of several apparent red lines, along with a move for Taipei’s government to declare legal independence. State broadcaster CCTV recently warned “the first battle would be the last battle.”

Since the Communist Party’s legitimacy is based in part on a pledge to “unify” China, its hold on the country’s 1.4 billion people could weaken if it allowed Taiwan to become an independent country. And while any invasion even of outlying islands carries the risks of economic sanctions or a destabilizing conflict, threats issued in state-run media allow Beijing to appeal to a domestic audience and deter Taiwan at the same time.

If Taiwan becomes a part of the PRC, it will have a chilling impact on security of the entire Indo Pacific. A big breach in the defenses of the democracies. Japan, South Korea and another twenty countries will be affected. So Taiwanese security matters a great deal to every democracy of the region. It needs to be done collectively. Taiwan should work out a security agreement with the quad countries. It does not need to be overt. If 10 - 15 countries recognise Taiwan in a go what can China do ? Is China going to cut off relations with all of them -- Nalapat

 

[Mithridates]

Since the Communist Party’s legitimacy is based in part on a pledge to “unify” China, its hold on the country’s 1.4 billion people could weaken if it allowed Taiwan to become an independent country. And while any invasion even of outlying islands carries the risks of economic sanctions or a destabilizing conflict, threats issued in state-run media allow Beijing to appeal to a domestic audience and deter Taiwan at the same time.

The mantra is BS on on wheels. Its legitimacy is based on its ability to crush any opposition to its policies ruthlessly, up to and including running them over with tanks. Whatever foreign policy it chooses to set is holy writ to the populace. Or else. The principal risk comes from senior party members who use Taiwanese independence as a wedge to lever themselves into power at the sitting dictator's expense. But even that would require a critical mass of disaffected senior people in key positions with the security services who are worked up enough to turf the current guy and resign themselves to the uncertain aftermath of even a successful coup. Because coups are generally the kick-off whistle for a mad scramble for power. At then end of which many of the plotters could end up dead at the hands of their coup plotter associates. Each of whom is making his bid for supreme power.

 

[Double Edge]

A different idea from the FT. Coercion to panic the Taipei govt as opposed to a full blown invasion.

 

[m a x]

Pew Research has come up with Historic High Unfavorable Estimates for China -- https://www.pewresearch.org/global/...-china-reach-historic-highs-in-many-countries . Along with the efforts of Pompeo's administration to satanize Chinese international collaboration around the Globe, this tendency actually leaves the Dragon with nothing to loose from showing its authoritarian character once again to the World. Moreover it makes Chinese look weaker, provided they do not demonstrate their authority, although humanitarian aspects and the negative perspective of Donald Trump for the upcoming elections are not to be ignored. Whoever tend to believe that from Washington are ready to start another WW because of Taiwan, the initiated selling of high-tech weaponry to the Taiwanese government seems to refute this. It is more likely the USA try to strengthen their Second Cold War scenario against the Asian Powers with heavier stance of embracing Europe and wherever there are others against them

 

[Double Edge]

It is more likely the USA try to strengthen their Second Cold War scenario against the Asian Powers with heavier stance of embracing Europe and wherever there are others against them

Europe is embracing the Indo Pacific. Germany recently joined France.

Germany Joins the ‘Indo-Pacific’ Club | The Diplomat | Sept 03 2020

The German push punctuates the growing mood of distemper toward China throughout Europe, stemming from Beijing’s recent crackdown in Hong Kong, its harsh treatment of the Uyghurs in the Xinjiang region of western China, and the increasingly coercive methods it has used to quell opposition to Chinese policies.

The full-bore diplomatic and state media assault that greeted this week’s visit to Taiwan of Czechia’s Senate President Milos Vystrčil, whom the CCP’s tabloid mouthpiece Global Times denounced as a “political hooligan” who was “trampling on diplomatic civilization,” is likely to undermine China’s attempts at European damage control.

As French President Emanuel Macron declared during a European Council meeting in March last year, “the time of European naiveté [towards China] is over.”

The Czech Senate President's trip to Taiwan is appreciated.

 

[Double Edge]

Here's Ian Easton. He thinks it will be harder to prevent a straits crisis because the CCP will draw the lesson that the world didn't do a whole lot about Xianjiang and HK

 

[Oracle]

 

[Mithridates]

Given the recent saber-rattling by the PLAAF, it would be interesting to know whether or not the Taiwanese are finally starting to take the possibility of an invasion seriously. And by seriously, I mean begin to spend real money on defense instead of frittering it away on social spending and green initiatives.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

That would be on the Americans rather than Taipei. If DC offers up the F-35, you can bet Taipei will find the money somewhere to buy them. In fact, I cannot think of one sale that Taiwan turned down.

 

[DOR]

Taiwan More Vulnerable to Missile Attack Than Israel
Experts agree island’s air defenses can’t pull off what Israel’s did

AsiaSentinel, Oct 14, 2024 (Paywall)

Could Taiwan withstand the kind of barrage from the mainland that Israel has faced over recent weeks and survive relatively unscathed? Iran has fired more than 500 drones and missiles at Israel in two massive attacks in April and September without however coming anyway near to causing the scale of damage it had hoped to achieve.

As the overwhelming majority of projectiles were downed by Israel and allied forces, only one person was reported killed and no weapons, aircraft or critical infrastructure were damaged, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The IDF also said that its F-35 stealth fighters intercepted many cruise missiles before they entered Israeli air space, with the air defense system Arrow dealing with most of the ballistic missiles that went through. The next element in the tier, David's Sling, protected against short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, while the Iron Dome intercepted unguided rockets and drones heading for residential areas…

 

[Monash]

Taiwan More Vulnerable to Missile Attack Than Israel
Experts agree island’s air defenses can’t pull off what Israel’s did

AsiaSentinel, Oct 14, 2024 (Paywall)

Could Taiwan withstand the kind of barrage from the mainland that Israel has faced over recent weeks and survive relatively unscathed? Iran has fired more than 500 drones and missiles at Israel in two massive attacks in April and September without however coming anyway near to causing the scale of damage it had hoped to achieve.

As the overwhelming majority of projectiles were downed by Israel and allied forces, only one person was reported killed and no weapons, aircraft or critical infrastructure were damaged, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The IDF also said that its F-35 stealth fighters intercepted many cruise missiles before they entered Israeli air space, with the air defense system Arrow dealing with most of the ballistic missiles that went through. The next element in the tier, David's Sling, protected against short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, while the Iron Dome intercepted unguided rockets and drones heading for residential areas…

The quantitative and qualitative scale of the threat are an order of magnitude different. For a start Iran and it's proxies can't hope to match the EW capabilities and pen aids etc that China could bring to the party (nor the diversity for that matter either) . That said even a highly successful missile offensive, no matter how intense by itself doesn't amount to a successful invasion. That requires 'boots on the ground' and that's where the problem for China lies.

As lay person? And for what it's worth I can see China staging a successful if costly landing. The problem that China has is that even if the US can't intervene in that landing operation (or tries and fails)? The IS still has the capacity initiate a deep water blockade of the Chinese mainland to with China confined to 'controlling' the South China Sea. Any such blockade would effectively sever most of China's trade links with the rest of the world in one stroke. And China's only effective scoutmaster would be to try and challenge the US and it's Allies in a blue water naval conflict in the Eastern Pacific and the choke points near Japan, Korea and the Philippines etc. And that battle, in the foreseeable future? I think it would lose.

So in that scenario we'd see Chinese forces in place on Taiwan if not in full control but the Chinese Navy and its economy bottled up in the SCS. In the long term that the outcome favors the US, Taiwan and of course Taiwan even if China does actually force Taiwan to surrender. My chief question though is if China did manage to force Taiwan to lay down arms would the US Government concede or continue to prosecute the war regardless knowing it had the upper hand in the long term.