What would a Taiwan invasion scenario involving conventional weaponry look like?

[Mithridates]

How long would it take for China to prevail, assuming American and Japanese intervention, if ever? What if the intervention only involved funding, keeping the shipping lanes open and providing supplies of both food and weaponry, including new weapons systems where deemed necessary?

 

[Double Edge]

The US has an agreement to defend Taiwan. This assurance was offered to the Taiwanese as a way to get them to give up their nuke program in the late 80s.

Your question assumes that agreement no longer holds or has been traded away ?

 

[Mithridates]

The US has an agreement to defend Taiwan. This assurance was offered to the Taiwanese as a way to get them to give up their nuke program in the late 80s.

Your question assumes that agreement no longer holds or has been traded away ?

The thing about this assurance is that it's not a formal mutual defense treaty. The Taiwan Relations Act provides for the delivery of weaponry for Taiwan's defense. It's certainly possible that the significant increase in China's military capabilities since then has raised the cost of any potential intervention to the point that any White House would quail at the possibility of having to defend Taiwan.

A bigger problem is that Taiwan has shrunk its defense expenditures as a percentage of its output even as China's has gone up in leaps and bounds, thanks to the large increases in the size of its economy. The risk is that China could overrun Taiwan before any intervention could be organized.

 

[Double Edge]

Previous history suggests the US has stood by the agreement, see previous straits crises dating as far back as the 50s

It's not that China hasn't tried its each time they are unsucessful

What was curious about your question was whether there has been any change in this agreement recently. I did not read anything like that

 

[Officer of Engineers]

My info maybe out of date but I have not seen a serious expansion of sea lift capabilities. Last time I looked at this, the China Army can land 30,000 men in division size increments while the RoCA can throw 200,000+ into the fight before calling the reserves.

 

[SteveDaPirate]

According to a 2015 RAND study, in a hypothetical Taiwan invasion in 2017 China is expected to lose 41% of their amphibious shipping to US submarines alone in the first week. The US is expected to lose 1-2 submarines to Chinese ASW efforts depending on the outcome of the aerial battle, as ASW aircraft are considered to be the biggest threat to US attack subs.

Link

The rapid attrition of Chinese amphibs makes swiftly capturing a port essential for China to continue to supply their invasion forces.

 

[zraver]

Are you talking a snap mission by the PRC say following a sudden declaration of independence, or a more gradual inching towards war? has Japan changed its constitution to allow greater regional involvement? If they have then US bases in Japan are obvious targets. If they have not then does the PRC ignore US bases in Japan as a way of keeping the robust capabilities of the JSDF sidelined. What does Vietnam do? North Korea, Australia, India? Lots of countries don 't want a re-balancing of regional power in China's favor. The question is more than a count of missiles, planes and submarines. In my view, China's position grows weaker the longer it takes to move from tension to war. However, barring some miraculous effort at deception that allows the PRC to steal a march, she doesn't have the expeditionary capability to take Taiwan before the world can react and she would take an enormous hit economically.

 

[Double Edge]

has Japan changed its constitution to allow greater regional involvement? If they have then US bases in Japan are obvious targets.

Yes they have but its a question of will. How well can they sell the idea to their public when Japan isn't directly attacked

http://www.npr.org/sections/paralle...-can-now-send-its-military-abroad-but-will-it

This is a country that has a missile fly over every now and again and has been quite slow to act

 

[Oracle]

Z, India's position has been defensive for decades and I don't see that changing in the near future as conventional military capabilities haven't kept pace w.r.t economic development. Some might argue, instead, taking the lastest Sino-Indian border stand-off as a template, but that again I believe is reactive because of India's own national security interests.

DE, the right wing is growing in Japan.

Japan's rising right-wing nationalism

Commentary: World must remain on guard against Japanese militarism 80 years on

 

[Double Edge]

Z, India's position has been defensive for decades and I don't see that changing in the near future as conventional military capabilities haven't kept pace w.r.t economic development.

As China moves into the Indian ocean it is for us to move into their back yard

Indian ships on visit to Philippines | Hindu | Oct 04 2017

Indian warships have visited Philippines every year since 2006.

DE, the right wing is growing in Japan.

Japan's rising right-wing nationalism

Commentary: World must remain on guard against Japanese militarism 80 years on

They never went away, after the war their primary purpose was as a natural barrier to communism. One of the quirks where yasukune exists but no equivalent ever can in germany

What they get up to these days and beyond remains to be seen

From the vox video

Your ancestors wrote the Japanese constitution in one week and stupidly the Japanese have maintained it for over seventy years

These guys are fringe

 

[DOR]

What would a Taiwan invasion scenario involving conventional weaponry look like?

Overlord x 10

The Taiwan Straits is some of the worst water in the world.
The ROCers have no where to retreat to.
The US cannot stand by and watch.

 

[SteveDaPirate]

Are you talking a snap mission by the PRC say following a sudden declaration of independence, or a more gradual inching towards war? In my view, China's position grows weaker the longer it takes to move from tension to war. However, barring some miraculous effort at deception that allows the PRC to steal a march, she doesn't have the expeditionary capability to take Taiwan before the world can react and she would take an enormous hit economically.

I think a surprise invasion is out of the question. It took the allies a full year to build up to carrying out Overlord and that was against an enemy already engaged in a life or death struggle on another front. The allies had a whole continent full of potential landing sites to pick from, while the defenders couldn't effectively cover them all and were successfully deceived about the true target for the landings.

There is no ambiguity about where any landings would occur in a Taiwan invasion scenario. That means trying to conduct landings right into the teeth of everything the ROC can throw. Omaha beach would look like a picnic in comparison.

No to mention any preparations the US or ROC have in place already. I'd be surprised if the Taiwan straight isn't already littered with CAPTOR mines just awaiting the right signal to go active.

Additionally, aerial mine-laying is back with a vengeance. The advent of precision guidance kits means aircraft no longer have to fly low and slow for multiple passes to emplace a minefield. A bomber can release guided gliding mines from high altitude at standoff ranges. Below is an example of how accurate these precision mines can be when targeted at the same point.

 

[Skywatcher]

The US cannot stand by and watch.

We will if Taiwan does something stupid like declare independence or tries to grab WMDs.

The TRA is not a suicide pact.

 

[astralis]

or, if we have really, really stupid leadership prone to transactional diplomacy and not known for keeping his word.

there's a reason why Tsai Ingwen is finally bumping up Taiwan military defense spending...

 

[Mithridates]

or, if we have really, really stupid leadership prone to transactional diplomacy and not known for keeping his word.

there's a reason why Tsai Ingwen is finally bumping up Taiwan military defense spending...

It's about time. Taiwan spent just $10.1b in 2015, vs Israel's $18.6b. The US is obviously committed to Israel's survival, whereas it's not exactly crystal whether Uncle Sam would come to Taiwan's rescue. If Taiwan wants at least a fighting chance, it should be spending what Singapore does - 3.4% of GDP, or about $18b. Better still, it should be spending what Israel does - 5.6% of GDP, or about $30b. The lack of will and military capability reflected in Taiwan's anemic spending will invite invasion sooner rather than later.

 

[Skywatcher]

or, if we have really, really stupid leadership prone to transactional diplomacy and not known for keeping his word.

there's a reason why Tsai Ingwen is finally bumping up Taiwan military defense spending...

If a 2% year on year increase actually matters..

Seriously, between that 2% increase farce and those overweight (and grossly cost underestimated) domestic warship build up, who in the world does she think she's fooling?

 

[Mithridates]

If a 2% year on year increase actually matters..

Seriously, between that 2% increase farce and those overweight (and grossly cost underestimated) domestic warship build up, who in the world does she think she's fooling?

Taiwan's lack of seriousness re defense spending might lead observers, disinterested and otherwise, to think they don't give a damn. If they don't give damn, why should anyone else care? This is especially true of Uncle Sam, who will have to bear most of the weight of any military assistance to Taiwan in the event China invades. On the one hand, you have Israel, whose only opposition is Arabs, who have been repeatedly defeated, spending big money on preparing for Armageddon. On the other, you have Taiwan, whose military was swept off the Chinese mainland ~70 years ago, trundling along on a piddling defense budget without a care in the world.

 

[Skywatcher]

Taiwan's lack of seriousness re defense spending might lead observers, disinterested and otherwise, to think they don't give a damn. If they don't give damn, why should anyone else care? This is especially true of Uncle Sam, who will have to bear most of the weight of any military assistance to Taiwan in the event China invades. On the one hand, you have Israel, whose only opposition is Arabs, who have been repeatedly defeated, spending big money on preparing for Armageddon. On the other, you have Taiwan, whose military was swept off the Chinese mainland ~70 years ago, trundling along on a piddling defense budget without a care in the world.

For all that pap about Taiwanese determination and grit that Messrs Cole and Easton are so fond of peddling, if the ROC electorate can't even be bothered to spend 5% of annual GDP on defense and bear a two year conscription for every able bodied male, how sincerely and deeply held is that "Taiwanese identity" going to be once the missiles start flying and their lines of communications get cut?

 

[Mithridates]

From a Rand Corp assessment conducted in 2009:

The threat to Taiwan from Chinese ballistic missiles is serious and increasing. Beijing continues to add missiles to its inventory, and the PLA appears to be improving the accuracy of its SRBMs and develop-ing warheads that could be highly effective against a variety of targets on Taiwan. In the near term, China’s ability to use missile attacks to seriously degrade Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities will likely reach a dangerous level.

Although literally thousands of missiles might be needed to com-pletely and permanently shut down Taiwan’s air bases, about 60–200 submunition-equipped SRBMs aimed at operating surfaces would seem to suffice to temporarily close most of Taiwan’s fighter bases. If China can launch a single wave of this size, which seems consistent with the number of SRBM launchers the PLA deploys, those missiles could sup-press ROCAF operations sufficiently to allow PLA Air Force (PLAAF) strike aircraft to attack air bases and other military and industrial tar-gets with modern precision weapons. The result could be a Taiwan with a profoundly reduced ability to defend itself, left open to a range of follow-on actions intended to coerce or conquer it and its people.

It is unclear how prepared the Chinese are to execute at least the second half of this concept of operations—there is little evidence in the open press of substantial PLAAF training with or acquisition of air-delivered PGMs—but it merits further examination and close tracking by U.S. and Taiwanese intelligence. It is clear, however, that China’s SRBM force presents a most serious threat to Taiwan’s security

The idea here is that the PLA possesses enough SRBM's to knock out Taiwan's air bases for long enough to give the the PLAAF room to mount the air strikes necessary to pry the door open so as make a successful invasion possible.

 

[Old Codger39]

Agree with those that are betting on PRC failure in its constant threats of invasion.

Taiwan needs three things that she MUST have to ensure that.

The first is the US satellites that report daily from about 10 or 12 over-flights that would show the gathering troopships and escorts at the ports, and the planes on the airfields. As pointed out above it took Eisenhower a full year to get it all done in 1944.

The second is 24/7 radars on the Pescadores plus Quemoy and Matsu. The inshore islands may well be taken some months before T-Day. Airborne radars will suffice after the in-shores are taken by China. Eternal vigilence!

The third is the very good anti-ship (Brave Wind.3.) and anti-air (Sky Bow.3.) missiles that must be truck mounted and well hidden in caves and dug-outs etc all along that mountain range that is the spine of Taiwan.

Things in Taiwan's favour are the lousy beaches with lousy tides, and lousy mud-flats all along the East coast and the mountains that extend to the sea in many parts of the West coast. Taiwan has probably 1000s of those missiles in place as of now and should be producing more every day. Taiwan can produce her missiles far faster and cheaper than China can build ships and planes. And virtually all of those east coast beaches lead directly to urban warfare and a hard slog to Taipei.

China needs to sail maybe 50+ troop-ships and 50+ escorts, and fly 200 paratroop planes across that 150 kms of the Taiwan Strait whilst under very heavy missile attack for all of the second half of that voyage. THEN do it all again, and again, for re-supply! China can fairly easily put the airfield out of action, but by having 1000s of laborerers and earth moving gear Taiwan can repair them in a day. With all that warning, Taiwan can ensure that her Navy bases are empty.

As for a PLAN blockade I expect that the Brave Wind.3. will keep China's ships at least 300kms away from Taiwan, and subject to attack as soon as they venture nearer. All civilian tranports and tankers etc bound for China will be subject to attack also, and the Insurance companies will stop them entering the zone on day 1.

I expect that the result will be known within hours on T-Day. (And I very much doubt that the USA will be needed for anything other than re-loads for her Patriots etc.)

OC