War in Space, Space to Earth War, Moon to Earth War

[Monash]

Doesn't matter where you want to go in the solar system or what you want to do once you get there the first step is having a 'critical mass' of activity in space and hence potential demand to justify the cost of getting there. And the first missions are always 'loss leaders' i.e. science missions that get paid for on the tax payers dime. That's not a bad thing but you won't get mass transit to location X until there's enough demand for whatever X has to make it profitable to go there. First step is always going to be getting lots of people into Earth Orbit 24/7. After that simple demand should generate venture capital to investigate retrieving and processing 'stuff' from the Moon and asteroid belt etc. The critical mass of people and capital equipment goes up again and the cycle repeats.

And it would be the same thing for Mars, science missions first but no large scale migrations until costs come way down & the potential benefits go way up! Even the colonization of North America only proceeded because simple demand/cost equations made it worthwhile (lots of demand, manageable if expensive costs/risks) .

The only other way to get it done would be for a certain command economy have its leaders say 'just do it'.

 

[Parihaka]

The title of this thread is war in space. Is there anything out there worth going to war over.

The high ground

 

[Officer of Engineers]

The high ground

He's no Jedi.

 

[Monash]

The high ground

Only when there's something on (or in this case in) that 'ground' worth fighting for. You'd have to heavily militarize space and/or have a lot of valuable civilian capital located there before its worth fighting over and at the moment that's not the case. There's no particular reason to militarize space extensively when all the valuable assets are on the ground and readily reachable with the weapon systems you've already got deployed.

 

[Parihaka]

He's no Jedi.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Timemark : 1:55

 

[Politicus Explorator]

Great points raised earlier about potential future conflicts and resource mining in space, especially the strategic importance of the Moon. This article on Engelsberg Ideas expands nicely on that discussion by exploring the geopolitical implications and future of lunar exploration and competition over lunar territory and resources: https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/lunar-resources/.

 

[rj1]

Where are some engaging and intellectual responses here? I think this subject is broad and fresh enough and relevant enough to warrant some deeper considerations. Any thoughts on the upcoming new chapter in human history? The huge and great space race. I personally think that whatever happens in the next 20 years of human occupation of space will decide the next course the whole of humanity will take.

Watch or read The Expanse series. They have a version of warfare that is based on putting thought into it and is very different from Star Trek and Star Wars. In episode 4 of the 1st season (or in the book Leviathan Wakes) they depict warfare where these prisoners taken on-board a Martian ship (not aliens, colonists long ago from Earth that have become politically independent from Earth), one of them formally served in the Martian navy and he freaks out when he realizes the ship they're on he hears them firing rail guns. The emptiness of space makes firing actual bullets useless unless your opponent is close enough it becomes Close Quarters Battle (CQB).

I love The Expanse. Kind of killed Star Trek for me for potential space-based future.

As far as space stuff, I think Elon Musk's end goal is to create a community free of Earth-based government influence as much as possible. Kind of a real-life version of a Galt's Gulch: a SpaceX Company Town in Space. Ultimately it can't be free unless it could provide for itself. But he just got a President to essentially fund his company's research and plans to send people to Mars.

I don't think rest of the world matters other than China and Russia in space. Russia's occupied at the moment. China, we'll see. The ESA are going to follow NASA's lead. NASA's Orion capsule supposedly is going to bring us closer to a Moon-based version of the ISS. This is contentious in the community of people that care about such things on whether it can achieve that. The most 100% pro-space human exploration people seem to care a lot more about SpaceX.

 

[TrumpCentrist]

I wasn't much of a Star Wars fan although I can appreciate the original movies and recognize them for their worth. Before Star Wars there was Star Trek, both scenarios seem unlikely but I can foresee that what reality will bring us with space tactics should be a balanced blend of the two concepts. Exploration and mining for resources versus territorial disputes and a scramble for tactical advantage over Earth from Space.

The Moon is of course number one on every space faring countries' list. In Ad Astra there is a battle portrayed between Moon cruisers and I would expect this sort of thing actually happening between two established Moon colonies be they corporate, private or governmental.

Personally, I don't think there will be an everlasting peace in space. Space craft are so delicate and combat so extremely easy in space that most two way combatants will end in mutual destruction. So, the tactics of success will be sneakiness and ambush and deception. We will have Russia, China, Japan, India and the U.S.A. as the largest contenders in space combat. The E.S.A. appears to be taking a more neutral role and I fear that they might get pushed out of the space race if Brexit is any indication of a near future E.U. split. And if so I would expect that emergent space agencies from a post-E.U. state would originate in France, Germany or Italy, perhaps jointly.

Corporate mining will be huge when they can start popping out the appropriate equipment at economical values. You got Virgin Galactic leading the private sector and talk of space hotels for tourists.

This subject seems broad and multi-fauceted. Any ideas anyone? What do you think of the space race of the mid-21st century?

I predict we'll probably have a Lunar nation-state by the 2200s-2300s, however Mars is a bit more far-fetched, likely maxing out around 2 million in population. The Moon would be the only space colony capable of self-governance imo as Mars will be too dependent on either the Moon or Earth governments/economies to sustain. So a big Martian-Earthling war like in The Expanse is incredibly unlikely until we get into the thousands of years in the future. Possibly by the mid-3000's to early-4000's I could see a self-sustaining nation-state emerge from Mars or Titan to challenge earth, and even then Earth would still win I think.

 

[Gun Grape]

If Pvt Vasquez goes count me in

 

[tbm3fan]

If Pvt Vasquez goes count me in
View attachment 1609741

Aren't you getting a bit old for this? Now where is that flomax...

 

[Gun Grape]

Aren't you getting a bit old for this? Now where is that flomax...

As the great Ian Anderson once said "Your never to old to Rock and Roll"

 

[Monash]

But with a possibility of a hostile warlike human prescence that could make space mining impossible for private corporations, the hostile environment could force corporations to become their own sovereign nations in order to create their own impenetrable defenses.

Not while the owners of those corporations reside on Earth they wont.

For the rest? Mining on Earth is far cheaper and easier than mining in space. So extracting all but the ratest/ industrially vsluable elements in space makes no sense until the intention is to build something in space.

 

[tbm3fan]

As the great Ian Anderson once said "Your never to old to Rock and Roll"

I'm all for Rock and Roll the music variety...

 

[rj1]

I predict we'll probably have a Lunar nation-state by the 2200s-2300s, however Mars is a bit more far-fetched, likely maxing out around 2 million in population. The Moon would be the only space colony capable of self-governance imo as Mars will be too dependent on either the Moon or Earth governments/economies to sustain. So a big Martian-Earthling war like in The Expanse is incredibly unlikely until we get into the thousands of years in the future. Possibly by the mid-3000's to early-4000's I could see a self-sustaining nation-state emerge from Mars or Titan to challenge earth, and even then Earth would still win I think.

In the Expanse, a Martian figured out "fast" intra-solar system travel, and Mars give access to that technology to Earth in exchange for political independence, Luna (the Moon) is an Earth protectorate, and the Outer Planets Alliance (near-terroristic group based in the Asteroid Belt and moons of Jupiter, Saturn, etc. Their leader early on Anderson Dawes speaks like a mildly warped version of a 1770s American revolutionary.) dream of political independence as they've always been subjugated to the whims and desires of Earth and Mars. Although the Martian Marine in the series who's spent her whole career preparing for war with Earth ("her squad trains in 1g") goes to Earth, looks around and quickly recognizes in any hot war Mars would be doomed due to the sheer numbers of people Earth has, so views Mars as having lied to her at that point.

But with a possibility of a hostile warlike human prescence that could make space mining impossible for private corporations, the hostile environment could force corporations to become their own sovereign nations in order to create their own impenetrable defenses.

Not while the owners of those corporations reside on Earth they wont.

Owners live and die. Corporations in contrast much like countries can live forever.

Here where you'd have a setup similar to Fort McMurdo in Antarctica, probably look for a governance model like one you can find in Star Wars where corporations govern a planet on something like a license from whomever is in control, but clearly hands-off.