The strategic importance of New Zealand

[Double Edge]

As leaders of the Polynesian world, Kiwis have influence over a swathe of islands that reaches Hawaii.

Should Kiwis be open to Chinese advances then the CCP can make moves into the region. This would be the third island chain.

No need to breach the first island chain when you can jump to the third and work backwards from there. Encirclement.

Now the eastern most tip of the US aka Guam becomes more accessible than from China.

Oceania was important for the imperial Japanese and it was important for the US to fight them on those islands.

The front line between the US & China isn't necessarily Taiwan. It could be Oceania. Matt Pottinger understood this.

Lots of noise is made about Taiwan, very little about the inroads China is making in Oceania and the strategic cost it imposes.

Goes back and forth. China wins some places and loses others. This is an area where Taiwan has the most recognition.

Here there are small countries that DO NOT adhere to a one China policy (!)

Taiwan does what needs to be done for Daniel Suidani, and for us all | Sunday Guardian | Jul 10 2021

Not much help was forthcoming from the west for this leader of the Solomons.

This is in the Aussie and Kiwi backyard.

Can the Kiwis be brought back from the brink and is that just an election away ?

The Aussies reformed themselves of late and are aware of what is coming down the line.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

New Zealand's defence decisions are not made in New Zealand and the Kiwis have zero say in the matter. They will be decided by the main regional combat powers, namely American and Australian.

 

[Double Edge]

Am not referring to a military takeover of NZ by China but Chinese political influence spreading in the region from NZ.

The more islands that go with China the harder it gets to fight or keeps the Aussies confined to their backyard.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Am not referring to a military takeover of NZ by China but Chinese political influence spreading in the region from NZ.

The more islands that go with China the harder it gets to fight or keeps the Aussies confined to their backyard.

What? China has much chance of controlling those islands as gubbies trying to take on White Sharks. In any battle between the RAN and the PLAN, bet on the RAN.

 

[Parihaka]

New Zealand's defence decisions are not made in New Zealand and the Kiwis have zero say in the matter. They will be decided by the main regional combat powers, namely American and Australian.

Correct. As you put it a few years ago, we are the spear carriers for the Australians.

 

[Parihaka]

Am not referring to a military takeover of NZ by China but Chinese political influence spreading in the region from NZ.

The more islands that go with China the harder it gets to fight or keeps the Aussies confined to their backyard.

Our (NZ) major political battle, and it is a battle, is curbing CCP influence in the South Pacific. Australia, in conjunction with the US has the military power, but has poor familial relationships with the Sth Pacific, we have strong ties due to our immigration and aid policies.
Pacifica are strongly independent of spirit, but perfectly happy to take the considerable aid we send them, both through direct govt. aid and just as importantly remittance from the many Pacifica people living and working here.
The likelyhood of China gaining significant military presence or vassal islands in the Sth Pacific is very slim indeed.

 

[Double Edge]

Little picture to demonstrate Kiwi influence in the Polynesia area. See the expanse !!


Aussies watch Melanesia, Kiwis Polynesia, Americans Micronesia and the allies strive to keep the worlds of Polynesia, Melanesia & Micronesia in orbit.

In short a lot of cats to corral (!) There's bound to be differences.

Aim for China is to exploit differences, contradictions and render ineffective any multilateral arrangements like they did with ASEAN.

 

[Double Edge]

The way to keep the region in orbit is through the Pacific Islands Forum & economic agreements like PACER PLUS which integrates the economies together.

Aussies have Pacific Step Up and Kiwis Pacific Reset for policy.

It is proving to be challenging keeping all on board and in agreement. Attempts to do so amounting to self goals by AUS & NZ

How the Pacific Islands Forum Fell Apart | The Diplomat | Feb 21 2021

Five countries just pulled out of the Pacific Islands Forum. This is geopolitically more important than it might seem. It is a very serious strategic problem which raises questions that get to the heart of some of the West’s most sensitive alliances.

Did Australia, New Zealand, and France deliberately coordinate to sideline the United States in an area where China is highly active? And is the Five Eyes still fit for purpose?

Splitting Northern Pacific (Micronesia) from the Southern (Melanesia & Polynesia)


Trouble in Paradise: Why a Pacific Islands Squabble Matters for Washington | NI | Feb 08 2021

Covers the same topic

 

[Double Edge]

What? China has much chance of controlling those islands as gubbies trying to take on White Sharks.

Well, it was your intel guys that blew the whistle on China's designs for the Kiwis back in 2018

China and the age of strategic rivalry (PDF) | CSIS | May 2018

New Zealand’s economic, political and military relationship with the PRC is seen by Beijing as a model for relations with Australia, the small island nations in the South Pacific, and more broadly other Western states.

New Zealand is valuable to China, as well as to other states such as Russia, as a soft underbelly through which to access Five Eyes intelligence.

New Zealand is also a potential strategic site for the PLA-Navy’s Southern Hemisphere naval facilities and a future Beidou-2 ground station; there are already several of these in Antarctica.

What does CSIS mean by soft underbelly ?!?

The PRC has not had to pressure New Zealand to accept Beijing’s soft power activities and political influence: successive New Zealand governments have actively courted it. Ever since New Zealand-PRC diplomatic relations were established in 1972, New Zealand governments have followed policies of attracting Beijing’s attention and favour through high-profile support for China’s new economic agendas.

New Zealand governments have also encouraged China to be active in New Zealand’s region, from the South Pacific to Antarctica: initially as a balance to Soviet influence, as an aid donor and scientific partner, and since 2014 as part of the ‘diversification’ of New Zealand’s military links away from Five Eyes partnerships.

In May 2017, New Zealand agreed to promote the Belt and Road policies in Oceania, including at home. New Zealand was the first Western country to sign a cooperation agreement with the PRC on the BRI.

The reference of diversifying away from five eyes is this paper from 2014

New Zealand expans defence ties with China (PDF) | CSS (NZ) | 2014

Oceania are the guppies here OOE :frown:

In any battle between the RAN and the PLAN, bet on the RAN.

We will get to know when RAN has to confront China's illegal fishing militias exploiting EEZ's of member islands states in the region.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

What do they mean by soft underbelly ?!?

Here is the entire paragraph

Furthermore, New Zealand is a member of the Five Eyes intelligence agreement that also includes the UK, the US, Canada and Australia, the Five Power Defence Arrangement, and their unofficial grouping of militaries, in addition to being a NATO partner state. Extricating New Zealand from these military groupings and away from its traditional partners would be a major coup for the Xi government’s strategic goal of turning China into a global great power. New Zealand’s economic, political and military relationship with the PRC is seen by Beijing as a model for relations with Australia, the small island nations in the South Pacific, and more broadly other Western states. New Zealand is valuable to China, as well as to other states such as Russia, as a soft underbelly through which to access Five Eyes intelligence. New Zealand is also a potential strategic site for the PLA-Navy’s Southern Hemisphere naval facilities and a future Beidou-2 ground station; there are already several of these in Antarctica60. All of these reasons make New Zealand of considerable interest to the PRC

This is written in la-la land.

We will get to know when RAN has to deal with China's illegal fishing militias starts exploiting EEZ's of member islands states in the region.

Australian warships sailed right through shouting distance of Chinese missiles (and the Chinese were shouting) on their sand castles. What makes you think a few AK-47s and RPGs on a few tugs are going to scare them off?

 

[Parihaka]

This is written in la-la land.[/FONT][/COLOR]

Yes it is. The idea that we just haven't noticed Xi's belligerence or that we'd allow Chinese forces to be stationed here is laughable. As for the P.I. they'll take money from anyone, but are to reiterate, fiercely independent. The greatest weakness is Fiji, and good luck to the Chinese with that xenophobic bunch of clowns.