The Korean Dilemma

[Toby]

For decades now we've had a situation where an isolated state born out of WW2 has point blank refused to accept its southern counterparts existence. Resulting in war then a stalemate for 60+ years. Enabled by China in the North and The USA in the South it would seem to quote a chinese statement 'we have reached a tipping point'.
Continually firing bigger and bigger missiles into the Sea of Japan and now over Japan into the Pacific with No regard for international law it would appear the end game is clearly in site. This is a very frightening prospect. Not only for Korea, but the region as a whole and the global economy of which Asia is a key component. My question is could this spread further afield, because I fear it has every prospect of doing so.
It would be good to hear your views...

 

[Double Edge]

Without spreading further afield, estimates of casualties in case hostilities break out

100k on the korean peninsula within the first 24h
300k over the next three months

Who is going to wage war with those figures ?

 

[Toby]

Without spreading further afield, estimates of casualties in case hostilities break out

100k on the korean peninsula within the first 24h
300k over the next three months

Who is going to wage war with those figures ?

A Madman and A Despot!

 

[Double Edge]

Despot wants to cut a deal

 

[Toby]

Despot wants to cut a deal

But what kind of deal?

President Donald Trump on Wednesday said “talking is not the answer”

 

[snapper]

Kim is not mad which leaves Trump.

 

[zraver]

Kim is not mad which leaves Trump.

Your the one who is mad.

Kim is likely playing to an internal audience and internal power struggles. A deployable nuclear weapon cements his control and also gives his regime a level of security they don't otherwise enjoy.

 

[Double Edge]

A Madman and A Despot!

Whether Trump could launch a nuclear strike on his own ?

President alone makes the decision but president alone cannot carry out the decision

My understanding is he must follow procedure otherwise the chain of command won't cooperate

 

[Toby]

Kim is not mad which leaves Trump.

He's (Kim) mad about firing missiles...

 

[hboGYT]

I hope this has not been posted before.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/29/kim-jong-un-fearless-trump-215555

 

[Amled]

Tiny Kim is again indulging in brinkmanship, and again apparently getting away with it!
Would not firing a missile over and through the airspace of a neighboring be considered a blatant act of war in most cases?

 

[TopHatter]

Tiny Kim is again indulging in brinkmanship, and again apparently getting away with it!
Would not firing a missile over and through the airspace of a neighboring be considered a blatant act of war in most cases?

The DPRK has committed dozens of overt acts of war since the "end" of the Korean War.

They get away with it because escalating to a full-blown war again would be both catastrophic and not confined to the Korean Pennisula

 

[Amled]

The DPRK has committed dozens of overt acts of war since the "end" of the Korean War.

They get away with it because escalating to a full-blown war again would be both catastrophic and not confined to the Korean Pennisula

Looking at it in that context, it means that they pretty well have carte blanche to do anything short of launching an all-out attack against the South or Japan.
I wonder would the same restraint be present if one of Tiny Kim’s missiles broke up and crashed on the Japanese mainland, with eventual casualties?
Bowing to pay Danegeld has usually never proven effective. The Dane has a habit of comming back for more!

 

[citanon]

Yea. It's not quite time to hit them yet，but getting close.

Any use of force should be massive, decisive, and overwhelming, and undertaken with surprise.

 

[snapper]

Not enough boots on the ground or time to stop them nuking Seoul.

 

[Double Edge]

I hope this has not been posted before.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/29/kim-jong-un-fearless-trump-215555

America is losing ground in the region. They can talk about a pivot to Asia all they want, but as time goes on, China gets stronger and South Korea and Japan are going to have to decide which side they are on. China is not going anywhere, and neither are we. Even if the long-term trend takes decades, we have time. China has made clear our collapse is a bigger concern than our provocations. We are only getting stronger as America loses ground to China and their alliances show more and more stress. If we can help that process along, so much the better.

Weaken the alliances ? how well is that working

 

[TopHatter]

Looking at it in that context, it means that they pretty well have carte blanche to do anything short of launching an all-out attack against the South or Japan.

Essentially, yes. "Small" scale acts of war have been "overlooked" for decades. Some of them are literally incredible, for the utter brazenness of the attack and the lack of retribution that followed:

A KPA Special Forces platoon infiltrates South Korea and gets within 100 meters of the South Korean presidential residence before being detected and eventually exterminated.
30 South Koreans and Americans are killed, 66 are wounded, including civilians.

A North Korean mini sub blows a South Korean corvette out of the water without warning or provocation, killing nearly half the crew.

I cannot imagine another country getting away with such actions.

I wonder would the same restraint be present if one of Tiny Kim’s missiles broke up and crashed on the Japanese mainland, with eventual casualties?

Yes, I believe there would be restraint shown. Certainly no overt kinetic military action undertaken.

Bowing to pay Danegeld has usually never proven effective. The Dane has a habit of comming back for more!

You are so right. In this case, the Danegeld has mostly kept the peace since 1953, kicking the problem down the road until the North Koreans have both nuclear weapons and an intercontinental delivery system...And now the Dane is truly coming back for more.

 

[TopHatter]

Not enough boots on the ground or time to stop them nuking Seoul.

Or just subjecting it to a tube and rocket artillery barrage on a scale unseen since World War II

 

[snapper]

Or just subjecting it to a tube and rocket artillery barrage on a scale unseen since World War II

You want to take that risk? The civilian casualties on both sides... even if you succeed you need more boots on the ground to stop the straight assault on Seoul (and it's 10m civvies). Not really an option in my book.

 

[TopHatter]

You want to take that risk? The civilian casualties on both sides... even if you succeed you need more boots on the ground to stop the straight assault on Seoul (and it's 10m civvies). Not really an option in my book.

I was referring Seoul. It could subjected to that NK artillery barrage, even if it wasn't nuked.

To be clear, I am completely against a completely unprovoked "first-strike" on North Korea.