Statquo and OOE Club: Canadian Politics

tbm3fan said:
I've just a bystander but I noticed how Alberta and Saskatchewan went almost 100% Conservative. Remind me of Montana and Wyoming here.
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Actually, Alberta has a substantial centrist, centre left vote, especially in the two large cities,; just relatively recently, 2014, the left wing NDP won at the Provincial level and even today has a substantial presence in the state legislature.

There is though growing frustration, legitimately in my opinion, with the federal government built up over the Trudeau years, that may make it seem that Alberta is 100 percent conservative, except for 2 or 3 city ridings.
 
Monash said:
He's certainly pushed his credentials as the person best placed to stand up to Trump. The trouble is (A) Trump and/or his staffers will have seen/heard him do this (and will brief the orange haired narcissist accordingly) & (B) The US holds the stronger economic hand. We'll see soon enough if he can deliver on his promise.
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That may have been the case a few months ago when it was Canada and Mexico alone against the US.

Then Trump decide to start a trade war with the entire world at the same time, and had to back off after the bond markets got spooked. The pain from the Chinese tariffs is yet to hit the main economy, but it seems that things will get worse pretty soon, the port of Los Angeles is reporting container traffic down substantially: this will affect the east coast as well in a few weeks. I think we can expect Trumps popularity to fall even more when Americans are faced with higher prices and emptier shelves.

Sure, Trump can isolate and pick on his victims like Canada one by one, but I don't think he has the discipline or patience for that.
 
InExile said:
That may have been the case a few months ago when it was Canada and Mexico alone against the US.

Then Trump decide to start a trade war with the entire world at the same time, and had to back off after the bond markets got spooked. The pain from the Chinese tariffs is yet to hit the main economy, but it seems that things will get worse pretty soon, the port of Los Angeles is reporting container traffic down substantially: this will affect the east coast as well in a few weeks. I think we can expect Trumps popularity to fall even more when Americans are faced with higher prices and emptier shelves.

Sure, Trump can isolate and pick on his victims like Canada one by one, but I don't think he has the discipline or patience for that.
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Trump doesn't have any patience. He wants fast results which is why I think he resorts to threats. Try to scare someone into coming to the table quickly so to avoid worse. Maybe in small business one on one but not countries. He has already claimed several phantom wins. There will be more phantom wins as his poll numbers drop. He desperately wants to be loved so the low polls will gnaw on him. Strange person. Narcissistic in needing attention but then wants to dominate at the same time when both things are mutually exclusive. Just our damn luck luck he grew up in New York instead of Wellington.
 
InExile said:
That may have been the case a few months ago when it was Canada and Mexico alone against the US.

Then Trump decide to start a trade war with the entire world at the same time, and had to back off after the bond markets got spooked. The pain from the Chinese tariffs is yet to hit the main economy, but it seems that things will get worse pretty soon, the port of Los Angeles is reporting container traffic down substantially: this will affect the east coast as well in a few weeks. I think we can expect Trumps popularity to fall even more when Americans are faced with higher prices and emptier shelves.

Sure, Trump can isolate and pick on his victims like Canada one by one, but I don't think he has the discipline or patience for that.
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The problem is that in theory it doesn't matter really how unpopular he becomes with voters because from his perspective he's got 3 and half years left in office and there isn't anything anyone can do about it. The only way to reign him in? Will be if (more likely when) he becomes so toxic with the public that the Republican Party itself is forced to act in unison out of desperation to save itself from a wipe out at the polls in 2028.

Mind you, the way things are going? They could well reach that point this year!
 
InExile said:
Actually, Alberta has a substantial centrist, centre left vote, especially in the two large cities,; just relatively recently, 2014, the left wing NDP won at the Provincial level and even today has a substantial presence in the state legislature.

There is though growing frustration, legitimately in my opinion, with the federal government built up over the Trudeau years, that may make it seem that Alberta is 100 percent conservative, except for 2 or 3 city ridings.
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Alberta has cities??? :)
 
Monash said:
The problem is that in theory it doesn't matter really how unpopular he becomes with voters because from his perspective he's got 3 and half years left in office and there isn't anything anyone can do about it. The only way to reign him in? Will be if (more likely when) he becomes so toxic with the public that the Republican Party itself is forced to act in unison out of desperation to save itself from a wipe out at the polls in 2028.

Mind you, the way things are going? They could well reach that point this year!
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He really doesn't have 3 1/2 years left. First, he is a lame duck. Two, January 2026 is the start of the mid-terms where some Republicans are going to start to panic in the House. He loses the House then his last two years will be fun.
 
tbm3fan said:
He really doesn't have 3 1/2 years left. First, he is a lame duck. Two, January 2026 is the start of the mid-terms where some Republicans are going to start to panic in the House. He loses the House then his last two years will be fun.
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To clarify I'm am aware of the your points and have noted the same thing myself. But nothing is going to stop Trump being Trump. If the party turns against him before the mid terms (as seems almost certain at this point in time) what do you think Trump is going to do? Be introspective, listen to his advisers and accept he has to comply with Congresse's wishes or rant about 'betrayal' and keep issuing Executive Orders like nothing has changed? Ultimately it's more likely than not he would fold (while claiming any policy U-turns were his idea) but IMO there's still definitively a non zero chance (70:3O perhaps?) that he'll instead choose to 'kamikaze' his way through to the end of his term. If it was other President we were discussing? I wouldn't even be suggesting the latter was possible but Trump?
 
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InExile said:
Actually, Alberta has a substantial centrist, centre left vote, especially in the two large cities,; just relatively recently, 2014, the left wing NDP won at the Provincial level and even today has a substantial presence in the state legislature.

There is though growing frustration, legitimately in my opinion, with the federal government built up over the Trudeau years, that may make it seem that Alberta is 100 percent conservative, except for 2 or 3 city ridings.
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It's better now than it was in the early '90s where a new party to the right of the center-right Progressive Conservative Party pretty much won everything west of Ontario.
tbm3fan said:
He really doesn't have 3 1/2 years left. First, he is a lame duck. Two, January 2026 is the start of the mid-terms where some Republicans are going to start to panic in the House. He loses the House then his last two years will be fun.
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I have a pet theory of there's a 5% chance Trump resigns on July 4, 2026. Here's my why:

1. 250th Anniversary of the Declaration of Independence from England
2. I don't think his ego could handle people focusing on who is the 2028 Republican nominee instead of on him. He's not going to be able to handle being a lame duck President where people are focused on the next election after he's gone. Hardly anyone paid attention to any actions Biden did after he resigned from running for re-election unless it was a gaffe.
3. If he resigns early it allows him to control the future by anointing his successor Vance to be President (in other words, Nikki Haley is gone for the next generation as well). Here we get Biden vibes as it's what Biden did in a much more ham-fisted way. That's massively important to people in his administration that are more concerned about not allowing the Bush/McConnell/Nikki Haley wing back in charge of the party instead of being concerned about the Democrats and defeating a sitting President in a primary is pretty much impossible now. If he resigns and allows Vance to take control, the 2028 presidential primary is effectively put on ice and that's now 3 cycles in a row without a real primary where control of the GOP was up for grabs and means Trump and his anointed successor would've controlled the party for ~ 15 years consecutively. There's people in their mid-30s that wouldn't be able to remember the pre-Trump GOP.
 
rj1 said:
It's better now than it was in the early '90s where a new party to the right of the center-right Progressive Conservative Party pretty much won everything west of Ontario.

I have a pet theory of there's a 5% chance Trump resigns on July 4, 2026. Here's my why:

1. 250th Anniversary of the Declaration of Independence from England
2. I don't think his ego could handle people focusing on who is the 2028 Republican nominee instead of on him. He's not going to be able to handle being a lame duck President where people are focused on the next election after he's gone. Hardly anyone paid attention to any actions Biden did after he resigned from running for re-election unless it was a gaffe.
3. If he resigns early it allows him to control the future by anointing his successor Vance to be President (in other words, Nikki Haley is gone for the next generation as well). Here we get Biden vibes as it's what Biden did in a much more ham-fisted way. That's massively important to people in his administration that are more concerned about not allowing the Bush/McConnell/Nikki Haley wing back in charge of the party instead of being concerned about the Democrats and defeating a sitting President in a primary is pretty much impossible now. If he resigns and allows Vance to take control, the 2028 presidential primary is effectively put on ice and that's now 3 cycles in a row without a real primary where control of the GOP was up for grabs and means Trump and his anointed successor would've controlled the party for ~ 15 years consecutively. There's people in their mid-30s that wouldn't be able to remember the pre-Trump GOP.
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Should also add to my harebrained theory for why he would resign, Joe Biden would remain the oldest President in U.S. history, it's also why everything is on super-speed early in this administration: his timeline is not 4 years, and if any of his policy priorities goes sour, Vance gets to cop the blame instead of him.
 
Monash said:
To clarify I'm am aware of the your points and have noted the same thing myself. But nothing is going to stop Trump being Trump. If the party turns against him before the mid terms (as seems almost certain at this point in time) what do you think Trump is going to do? Be introspective, listen to his advisers and accept he has comply with Congresses wishes or rant about 'betrayal' and keep issuing Executive Orders like nothing has changed? Ultimately it's more likely than not he would fold (while claiming any policy U-turns were his idea) but IMO there's still definitively a non zero chance (70:3O perhaps?) that he'll instead choose to 'kamikaze' his way through to the end of his term. If it was other President we were discussing? I wouldn't even be suggesting the latter was possible but Trump?
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What do I think he will do? He will rant and rave like he has all his life as that is all he knows. He will talk about betrayal and traitors trying to shame others. Frankly, when it is the last 6 months of his Presidency I wish for a major stroke and he is a vegetable.
 
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